We will know in seven months, 18 months? Perhaps. The same could be said that we will know 12 months ago- the time the review of WB7 was completed. Certainly more diverse and detailed data leading to more confident and acurate predictions will be aviable, but not nessisarily to us!
Our speculations and expectations may be mostly dependant on examination of details of contracts. The saying goes something like-"If you want to know the truth, follow the money trail". Of course, if that was always accurate, the Tokamak approach would have to be absolutely certain.
Dan Tibbets
Polywell: We'll know in 7 months time?!
My cartesian mind quite agrees. I imagine it can be useful sometimes to have laws that can cover anything you like. As an example the release notes of the Java platform (J2SE 1.5) prohibits nuclear maritime end uses. No Java for the Polywell-powered transatlantic ocean liner of my dreams...chrismb wrote:I think that would be a very selectively-used condition; it could pretty much cover anything you like.
Again, Polywell is not classified.
The disclosure limitations are standard for a contract in progress.
For Naval Nuclear Propulsion Information (NNPI), that is a classification unto itself. For example, something can be NNPI UNCLASS, but still not be releasable, soley on the NNPI basis. NNPI is a cold war derivative, it also helps protect our ships to limit the other guys ability to exploit the plants for tracking, monitoring, and tactical limitations. If you know how fast the other guy goes, you know how fast your torpedo needs to go, or if you know what to listen for, you know which way to aim it.
Polywell is not covered under NNPI, or any other classification.
The navy is currently working a 32Megajoule ship mountable version Proof of Concept rail gun. The end state is a 64 Mega Joule mount. The test platform recently demonstrated a multiple round successive firing test with postive results. Expected fielding is 2020(ish). This is on tap for DDX, and a possible retro for DDG. There has also been some discussions of a smaller point defense version for L ships and CVN's. The bigger issue driving the Rail is that the marines have been pissed (angry, not drunk) for a number of years that the navy is not meeting a statutory fire support requirement with existing systems. ERGM was gap fill, but has run into funding/testing issues.
Nothing can be more true than follow the money trail, especially in defense contracting. Some good canadian military friends of mine hit the US Military spot on with, "When you yanks have trouble with something, or it doesn't go how you want, you start throwing money at it until it does. It might not be economical, nor neccessary, but mostly, gets the trick done.". That said, these days, we are all conditioned to not associate with, nor continue support for money sponges that have no end state goal that plays. I think that Tokomak is starting funding death throws. The elephant is in the room, and is starting to smell, but nobody wants to be the one to admit to having let it in. That would be political suicide. Tokomak will die with a regime change, then they will be able to blame the last guys for letting it in the room.
Polywell is a mouse under the sofa. It has no public danger at this point, so if they are funding, it is because it has promise. But, if the mouse gets to much cheese to fast, it gets fat, and it will get smushed, quickly, quietly, cause it can't run away, nor defend itself, and no-one wants to admit they let it hang around so long and get fat. And, conversly, if it gets out from under the sofa to soon, it will be weak and timid, and the elephant will step on it, or some lady will bash it with her purse because they are not afraid. Polywell, with the right amount of cheese, gets strong, gets bold, scares of all the ladies and the elephant, and wins the day.
Can you burn cheese at 10T?
The disclosure limitations are standard for a contract in progress.
For Naval Nuclear Propulsion Information (NNPI), that is a classification unto itself. For example, something can be NNPI UNCLASS, but still not be releasable, soley on the NNPI basis. NNPI is a cold war derivative, it also helps protect our ships to limit the other guys ability to exploit the plants for tracking, monitoring, and tactical limitations. If you know how fast the other guy goes, you know how fast your torpedo needs to go, or if you know what to listen for, you know which way to aim it.
Polywell is not covered under NNPI, or any other classification.
The navy is currently working a 32Megajoule ship mountable version Proof of Concept rail gun. The end state is a 64 Mega Joule mount. The test platform recently demonstrated a multiple round successive firing test with postive results. Expected fielding is 2020(ish). This is on tap for DDX, and a possible retro for DDG. There has also been some discussions of a smaller point defense version for L ships and CVN's. The bigger issue driving the Rail is that the marines have been pissed (angry, not drunk) for a number of years that the navy is not meeting a statutory fire support requirement with existing systems. ERGM was gap fill, but has run into funding/testing issues.
Nothing can be more true than follow the money trail, especially in defense contracting. Some good canadian military friends of mine hit the US Military spot on with, "When you yanks have trouble with something, or it doesn't go how you want, you start throwing money at it until it does. It might not be economical, nor neccessary, but mostly, gets the trick done.". That said, these days, we are all conditioned to not associate with, nor continue support for money sponges that have no end state goal that plays. I think that Tokomak is starting funding death throws. The elephant is in the room, and is starting to smell, but nobody wants to be the one to admit to having let it in. That would be political suicide. Tokomak will die with a regime change, then they will be able to blame the last guys for letting it in the room.
Polywell is a mouse under the sofa. It has no public danger at this point, so if they are funding, it is because it has promise. But, if the mouse gets to much cheese to fast, it gets fat, and it will get smushed, quickly, quietly, cause it can't run away, nor defend itself, and no-one wants to admit they let it hang around so long and get fat. And, conversly, if it gets out from under the sofa to soon, it will be weak and timid, and the elephant will step on it, or some lady will bash it with her purse because they are not afraid. Polywell, with the right amount of cheese, gets strong, gets bold, scares of all the ladies and the elephant, and wins the day.
Can you burn cheese at 10T?
ladaho,
Wha? NNPI? What brought that up?
The Polywell effort generates technical information. It is generated by the Department of Defense or it's contractors. It is illegal to export Defense Technical Information without the approval of the Defense Department (technically the Dept of Commerce, I think, but they ask the DoD). No permission, no internet chats, which is considered export by the meaning of the act.
Not Classified, not Unclass NNPI, just limited distribution and export control.
Wha? NNPI? What brought that up?
The Polywell effort generates technical information. It is generated by the Department of Defense or it's contractors. It is illegal to export Defense Technical Information without the approval of the Defense Department (technically the Dept of Commerce, I think, but they ask the DoD). No permission, no internet chats, which is considered export by the meaning of the act.
Not Classified, not Unclass NNPI, just limited distribution and export control.
kiteman,
Just trying to clear up that polywell is not NNPI nor classified in response to olivier. At best it is export controlled due to being a neutron source <dual use>...but I do not think it is officially export controlled <yet>. In fact, as I understand, treaties (and law) dictate that fusion power research is shared.
ladajo wrote:
Polywell is NOT classified, I promise.
olivier wrote:
I remember that the DOC has a specific legislation which prohibits exports not because of the technology itself, but because of its end-use. Among the restricted end-uses is naval nuclear propulsion (for instance this restriction is famous for appearing on many software licenses).
A US Navy Polywell looks very much to me like a naval nuclear propulsion end-use. Publishing anything on an open forum looks very much like an export. So, I am not an export control expert but I cannot see how this could be allowed. Has anyone a better understanding of this?
Just trying to clear up that polywell is not NNPI nor classified in response to olivier. At best it is export controlled due to being a neutron source <dual use>...but I do not think it is officially export controlled <yet>. In fact, as I understand, treaties (and law) dictate that fusion power research is shared.
ladajo wrote:
Polywell is NOT classified, I promise.
olivier wrote:
I remember that the DOC has a specific legislation which prohibits exports not because of the technology itself, but because of its end-use. Among the restricted end-uses is naval nuclear propulsion (for instance this restriction is famous for appearing on many software licenses).
A US Navy Polywell looks very much to me like a naval nuclear propulsion end-use. Publishing anything on an open forum looks very much like an export. So, I am not an export control expert but I cannot see how this could be allowed. Has anyone a better understanding of this?
I think we will get something from the FOIA. Nothing in what they have said to me yet says that they will not release anything. In fact quite the contrary, it has been soley based around whether or not I would pay something, and if so how much. To be fair, that does not mean that they will not "kill" the FOIA post money resolution, but I only say that as I do not know. But, they really have not indicated in any means that what is being asked for will not be released.
The "Solicitation, Offer, and Award" is actually fairly inconsistent in it's numbering system so my interpretation below may be flawed.Robthebob wrote:Okay, let's clear this up once and for all. When does the contract end? I thought it was like either the end of this year or early next year.
The SO&A is not precisely a contract but can stand in lieu of one (I think as an addendum to one) and states that Item #0001 (which seems to be the scaling laws results report from WB8) is due 30-Apr-2010; ~3 more months.
The OPTIONAL item 0003 which SEEMS to be the equivalent WB8.1 report is due 31-Oct-2011. There seems to be continuing data reports on WB8.1 that run out to 31-Oct-2012.
So, we should know with D-D in ~ 3 months
and pB11 in ~20 months.But then again...
It's research not a homework assignment. The navy wants the answers not simply an incomplete result. You should be aware that research goes at its own pace and cannot be accelerated just because everyone wants to know the answer. Now the hardware, that can be done to a schedule to some extent but if the research has little weaknesses or unknowns the hardware can be compromised as a result.but then again ...
Maybe Rick knows all of the answers to the questions raised by the current hardware build but I would be surprised if he does.
In simple words, "Expect the schedule to slip."
Aero
Well Chrismb, it must be quite satisfying for you to know that you get all answers right the first time without needing more time to study the issues. I trust your grades have always been 100% all of your life.chrismb wrote:The mantra of the gravy-train passengers....Aero wrote: In simple words, "Expect the schedule to slip."
Aero