wired and nextbigfuture Oct 25 and 26

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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vernes
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wired and nextbigfuture Oct 25 and 26

Post by vernes »

wired.com
First comment by sethdayal speaks of polywell

Next big future Oct 25

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Obama is an idiot. He wants to kill off fossil fuels before there is a deployable replacement.

He is subtle. Not smart. And he knows nothing of logistics. i.e. he is an amateur.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

And the first commenter is ideological. He is neither a scientist nor engineer.

And we have been going to have peak oil in 10 years for the last 100 years.

And when he talks ITER for cheap energy in 10 years he is blowing smoke. Thank the Maker most here know better.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

passenger66
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Export Land Model (ELM)

Post by passenger66 »

Simon (and others), what do you think of this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model

and a typical conversation with Jeffrey Brown aka Westexas on TheOilDrum:

Here is the original post (under http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5911 ):

logi Energy Determines Saudi Oil Production Has Peaked

( http://www.hedgeco.net/news/10/2009/log ... eaked.html )

New York (HedgeCo.net) – In a discussion with Jim Puplava, FS Radio, Jeffrey Brown described his analytical work with Dr. Samuel Foucher, also part of logi Energy, where they determined that annual production in Saudi Arabia has never exceeded the production in 2005 and believe it never will.

Jeffrey went on to discuss his land export model and the ramifications of depleting oil fields and increasing demands within exporting countries by their own citizens. He and Dr. Foucher have determined, through deep analytics, that the exports from the top 5 exporting countries has peaked and half of all oil ever to be exported after 2005 by these countries will be exported within 4 years, by 2013.

and then the conversation:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5911/554058

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Re: Saudi,

Their oil output is politically driven, not geologically driven.

In addition - there is about 100 years of oil in the tar and shale sands of Canada and the USA. Politics is slowing access.

We have more than enough oil to support civilization during the transition to something else. If the politicians got out of the way.

BTW we get these oil scares about every 10 years. Have been since I started paying attention at age 10 - 55 years ago.

You know the deal - panic now and avoid the rush.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

OPEC to Raise Output If There’s ‘Real’ Oil Shortage, Qatar Says

(Bloomberg) -- OPEC will raise oil output if there’s a “real” shortage in supply, Qatar’s oil minister said as the group prepares to review production levels in December.

“Sometimes the price of oil has no correlation to demand and supply,” Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said today in Ras Laffan, Qatar. “Now what we are seeing is that oil has a strong correlation with the dollar.”

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5911
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

TallDave
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Post by TallDave »

Predictions of natural resources running short are always fraught with danger...


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth

passenger66
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Post by passenger66 »

There's a lot of oil in the tarsands but the production rate is low. There was a lot of oil in Ghawar in 1938, just like there was a lot of oil in Cantarell in 74, but there's not much left in Cantarell and it's that kind of decline that makes me wonder about Ghawar etc.
Would it not be very difficult to ramp up production of the oil sands from something like 1.5mbd now to anything like the Saudi rate of 10mbd, despite the amount of oil in the oil sands?
I'd love to be convinced I don't have to worry about Peak Oil, but I do. It's my main utilitarian reason to be interested in nuclear power (fusion or fission breeders) and to believe these need to be implemented ASAP.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

passenger66 wrote:There's a lot of oil in the tarsands but the production rate is low. There was a lot of oil in Ghawar in 1938, just like there was a lot of oil in Cantarell in 74, but there's not much left in Cantarell and it's that kind of decline that makes me wonder about Ghawar etc.
Would it not be very difficult to ramp up production of the oil sands from something like 1.5mbd now to anything like the Saudi rate of 10mbd, despite the amount of oil in the oil sands?
I'd love to be convinced I don't have to worry about Peak Oil, but I do. It's my main utilitarian reason to be interested in nuclear power (fusion or fission breeders) and to believe these need to be implemented ASAP.
And you know since the first oil wells in Pennsylvania we have been in a race between production and consumption. So far production is still ahead. In fact, currently, there is not enough storage for all the oil being produced.

And if Thomas Gold is correct:

The Deep Hot Biosphere : The Myth of Fossil Fuels

There is 500 to 1,000 years of oil and/or natural gas still available if we drill deep enough.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

passenger66
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Post by passenger66 »

I don't want to do a topic drift, except of course I'm worried about Peak Oil.

Wrt the oil being stored, the explanation I heard is because of contango - the future price of oil was expected to rise (from the low early this year) so oil was stored rather than sold. Also oil demand has dropped because of the high price last year and the current recession. But it is not so easy to slow down wells - oil field production has to be kept going in order for it to be kept going, so to speak, due to the mechanics of oil fields and production from them.

The Thomas Gold theory is of course this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin

which I thought was generally considered rather unlikely.

If I could be convinced otherwise I'd feel better, but none of my reading finds a convincing argument that Peak Oil is not upon us.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

passenger66 wrote:I don't want to do a topic drift, except of course I'm worried about Peak Oil.

Wrt the oil being stored, the explanation I heard is because of contango - the future price of oil was expected to rise (from the low early this year) so oil was stored rather than sold. Also oil demand has dropped because of the high price last year and the current recession. But it is not so easy to slow down wells - oil field production has to be kept going in order for it to be kept going, so to speak, due to the mechanics of oil fields and production from them.

The Thomas Gold theory is of course this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin

which I thought was generally considered rather unlikely.

If I could be convinced otherwise I'd feel better, but none of my reading finds a convincing argument that Peak Oil is not upon us.
The drilling so far has not been deep enough. We do have hints: played out fields in the Gulf of Mexico refilling. The one test drill (Sweden I think) found some oil in a very unlikely place.

As deep drilling gets cheaper we will eventually know the truth.

In any case there is enough oil in shale and tar sands to get us through the transition. If the politicians will get out of the way.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

djolds1
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Post by djolds1 »

MSimon wrote:The drilling so far has not been deep enough. We do have hints: played out fields in the Gulf of Mexico refilling. The one test drill (Sweden I think) found some oil in a very unlikely place.
Cites/links?

The contaminants in oil are what caught my attention some years back - heavy metals and helium concentrations that should NOT be present given biotic oil theory, but fit very nicely with oil migrating up from FAR down.
Vae Victis

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

djolds1 wrote:
MSimon wrote:The drilling so far has not been deep enough. We do have hints: played out fields in the Gulf of Mexico refilling. The one test drill (Sweden I think) found some oil in a very unlikely place.
Cites/links?

The contaminants in oil are what caught my attention some years back - heavy metals and helium concentrations that should NOT be present given biotic oil theory, but fit very nicely with oil migrating up from FAR down.
http://www.tccsa.tc/adventure/renewable_oil.pdf

http://hubpages.com/hub/Peak-Oil-or-Nonsense

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=20160

http://www.nytimes.com/1995/09/26/scien ... wanted=all

http://www.amlibpub.com/liberty_blog/20 ... -fuel.html

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig5/crispin8.html

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 259.htm#at

http://www.rottentothecoreblog.com/2006/may2006b.html

Is that enough to get you started?
When Gold proposed this theory in the early 1980s, few scientists took him seriously. However, he did persuade the Swedish State Power Board to drill into a slab of granite fractured by an ancient meteor impact. Since oil is supposed to be found only in sedimentary rocks, it was a good test of Gold's theory. If gas is coming up from deep in the Earth, it might be expected to accumulate beneath the dense granite cap, and migrate slowly up through any fissures, perhaps turning into oil or tar. In the event, the prospectors did strike oil - about 12 tons of it. This was not enough to make the well commercially successful, but it did confirm that Gold was on to something.

It was not the Swedish oil that proved the most significant discovery though. Mixed in with the sludge at the bottom of the well, at a depth of over 6 km, was a large quantity of magnetite - a reduced form of iron oxide often associated with bacterial activity. After further investigation, Gold announced to the world that life exists not only on the surface of our planet but, in microbial form, deep inside the crust too.

http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/ar ... read=42117
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

pbelter
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Post by pbelter »

djolds1 wrote:
MSimon wrote:The drilling so far has not been deep enough. We do have hints: played out fields in the Gulf of Mexico refilling. The one test drill (Sweden I think) found some oil in a very unlikely place.
Cites/links?

To me the helium and the heavy metals are not sufficient evidence either way. Helium can be migrating from mantle and getting stuck in oil reserves, while heavy metals should be migrating downwards not upwards.
I read Thomas Gold Deep Hot Biosphere, and 2 arguments really convinced me:

1. A good scientist always looks at a control group. If oil is of biotic origin, then lifeless planets should not have oil. Titan, the moon of Saturn does.
This alone fails the biotic hypothesis.
2. All organic compounds created by life on Earth are left handed or "levorotary", while inorganic ones should be 50/50 "levorotary" or "dextrorotary". Gold claims that there is significant percentage of "dextrorotary" compounds in the mined oil. This is a very strong argument.

Recently I checked the Peakoilers sites and they claim that the there are hardly any dextrorotary in oil. Who is telling the truth?

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

I have extracted from a few of the above links and posted something:

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/200 ... -from.html

I just did a check on Google and they have already indexed this site based on the search - oil dextororotary levorotary - we must be hot!

viewtopic.php?p=26724&sid=0b669bb632d85 ... ec899f5727
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

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