More apt is the ZETA cautionary tale where neutron counts were mistakenly attributed to fusion. It's good to be cautions with any "results". The funny thing to me is that there is such a huge gap between current "Q" for simple electrostatic devices and breakeven for these devices. Anything that puts electrostatic device on the map at this point should be considered wildly successful. If EMC2 can find a way for a Q of 10%, say, that should be considered jaw dropping amazing.TallDave wrote:It occurs to me one reason this is being kept quiet is that the reaction to WB-9 among the general public could be premature. If a WB-9 contract happens, there is going to be a "OMG THEY'RE BUILDING A REAL FUSION REACTOR!!" response from, well, people like us. A failure could then be very painful and very public. They might well prefer to keep it under wraps until they are very, very sure they have something worth talking about, because if they start the project loudly claiming to solve the world's energy needs and don't deliver it will taint the whole fusion effort.
Rick has mentioned the Pons cold fusion debacle more than once as a cautionary tale. Take it to heart.
Dec 3 2009 Will fusion fade ... or finally flare up? (msnbc)
That policy could be an indication of a positive result, or it could be an attempt to damage control if they've gone out on a limb to see what the next stage looks like given ambiguous results in the previous one.TallDave wrote:Alan has said he would try to find out what was going on. The fact all he can say is this is interesting.
Pretty much as we suspected. It's extremely frustrating but the hard truth is we may not know much more until either the project is abandoned or a star is born in a Navy lab (I don't see how they can keep it under wraps if it works).In the past, EMC2 Fusion's Richard Nebel has been able to describe the team's progress in general terms, saying that he was "very pleased" with the performance of an earlier test device. But now, with more Navy money on the line, Nebel has been constrained from saying anything about the project. The fact that the research is continuing, however, appears to indicate that the results have been promising enough to keep the Navy interested.
Considering the difficulty that administrations and congress has in cancelling any other kind of defense related contract, we shouldn't take an extension to be an implicit sign of success.
err.... they were due to fusion (?!). The issue was that they weren't due to thermonuclear reactions, but instead 'hum-drum' beam-target type reactions, like I keep harping on about, vis-à-vis Polywell, with fast neutrals into the walls.Helius wrote:More apt is the ZETA cautionary tale where neutron counts were mistakenly attributed to fusion.
For interest, in a tokamak pulse the majority of reactions are actually beam-target type. If it wasn't for the initial fusion energy released from the fast ions colliding and reacting with the slow stuff at the start of the inductive pulse then the whole thing wouldn't get to thermonuclear temperatures (so I've been told). At the start of the pulse, almost all are beam-target, and by the end the thermonuclear percentage of reactions finally struggles up to around 60% of the total.
I think if all of these fusion concepts do end up failing, that the energy future will be thorium based fission processes, either the MSR or the LFTR concepts. These two concepts represent what seems to be the best that fission power has to offer.
That Euro-skeptic that we talked about here a few weeks ago also thinks that the MSR or LFTR concept is the best way forward for energy production.
On the other hand, we can always do the O'neill L-5 society solar power satellite thing if all else fails.
That Euro-skeptic that we talked about here a few weeks ago also thinks that the MSR or LFTR concept is the best way forward for energy production.
On the other hand, we can always do the O'neill L-5 society solar power satellite thing if all else fails.
I just don not understand why people here would have believed that the information would flow. My view is just the opposite. I believe that if they have had sucess (to what extent, I know not) things would naturally go quiet.
The contract drew a line to PB11. Why would anyone say that, unless they had some sucess and believed there was a good chance or some chance. The ricebowl is too small.
It seems obvious that the next contract would be 100s of times bigger if the current contract proves out. However if the current contract proves out it should be obvious that it will go black. So as to front-run this, they shut-up now.
I like Art, a true scientist which means a true skeptic as a real scientist is suppose to be. But on the other hand history tells a different story. If fussion was going to be done by what we currently know, then it won't be done at all...Same as the light bulb, areoplane et al. The break through always comes by taking what you know and then thinking out of the box (of the known) and finding the "nuances" and then doing something different and maybe radical.
I also find it funny that the people here seem to believe that something this big would not be in the Govs and our interest to go black (for the time being).
Has anyone read about the Farewell Dossier or Line-X? It was in our interest that no one knew. It seems obvious the same would apply here.
If it even, ever had a hope of working as described by Dr. B, it is to big not to shut your mouth.
The laspe in funding was typical of another Gov screw-up, to correct this they gave a little to keep it alive and sent someone to disprove it... The outcome however was more funding.
If I were the powers that be... I would black it out if it showed promise and does not need money like the ricebowls at ITER. Which in the sheer magnitude of size would be impossible to cover-up. Super sized rice bowls with their own gravitational fields.
Forgive the bad grammar and spelling, I am from Texas and we can not even read or write
The contract drew a line to PB11. Why would anyone say that, unless they had some sucess and believed there was a good chance or some chance. The ricebowl is too small.
It seems obvious that the next contract would be 100s of times bigger if the current contract proves out. However if the current contract proves out it should be obvious that it will go black. So as to front-run this, they shut-up now.
I like Art, a true scientist which means a true skeptic as a real scientist is suppose to be. But on the other hand history tells a different story. If fussion was going to be done by what we currently know, then it won't be done at all...Same as the light bulb, areoplane et al. The break through always comes by taking what you know and then thinking out of the box (of the known) and finding the "nuances" and then doing something different and maybe radical.
I also find it funny that the people here seem to believe that something this big would not be in the Govs and our interest to go black (for the time being).
Has anyone read about the Farewell Dossier or Line-X? It was in our interest that no one knew. It seems obvious the same would apply here.
If it even, ever had a hope of working as described by Dr. B, it is to big not to shut your mouth.
The laspe in funding was typical of another Gov screw-up, to correct this they gave a little to keep it alive and sent someone to disprove it... The outcome however was more funding.
If I were the powers that be... I would black it out if it showed promise and does not need money like the ricebowls at ITER. Which in the sheer magnitude of size would be impossible to cover-up. Super sized rice bowls with their own gravitational fields.
Forgive the bad grammar and spelling, I am from Texas and we can not even read or write
Some experiments were done on a fusor type machine and it was found that beam-beam (or at least core) reactions predominated.The issue was that they weren't due to thermonuclear reactions, but instead 'hum-drum' beam-target type reactions, like I keep harping on about, vis-à-vis Polywell, with fast neutrals into the walls.
It was discussed a while back. UI Champaign I believe.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
It varies on fuel and setup, but I seem to recall that particular item was a bit suspect as they had windowed just the centre of the fusor and made presumptions from thereon.MSimon wrote:Some experiments were done on a fusor type machine and it was found that beam-beam (or at least core) reactions predominated.The issue was that they weren't due to thermonuclear reactions, but instead 'hum-drum' beam-target type reactions, like I keep harping on about, vis-à-vis Polywell, with fast neutrals into the walls.
It was discussed a while back. UI Champaign I believe.
Actually they windowed a number of areas. I wouldn't call the experiment definative. I thought it was indicative that the theory might be right (at least in part) .chrismb wrote:It varies on fuel and setup, but I seem to recall that particular item was a bit suspect as they had windowed just the centre of the fusor and made presumptions from thereon.MSimon wrote:Some experiments were done on a fusor type machine and it was found that beam-beam (or at least core) reactions predominated.The issue was that they weren't due to thermonuclear reactions, but instead 'hum-drum' beam-target type reactions, like I keep harping on about, vis-à-vis Polywell, with fast neutrals into the walls.
It was discussed a while back. UI Champaign I believe.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
The funny thing to me is that there is such a huge gap between current "Q" for simple electrostatic devices and breakeven for these devices.
Well, B^4*R^3.
Also, it sort of depends what you mean. In terms of total resources, the gap is (in theory) small relative to toks. $200M is a flange on ITER.
It would depend on the size involved. For WB-8, that might be good (too sleepy to figure that one out atm, oh hell let's do it easy and just say our expected 8W fusion comes from from 80W input; seems safe to say hat would be vastly outperforming the specs). If WB-9 produced 1 MW of fusion for 10MW input, that would be very bad.If EMC2 can find a way for a Q of 10%, say, that should be considered jaw dropping amazing
Basically we need friendly loss scaling.