ITER on TED

[tomschuring]

Physicist Steven Cowley is certain that nuclear fusion is the only truly sustainable solution to the fuel crisis. He explains why fusion will work -- and details the projects that he and many others have devoted their lives to, working against the clock to create a new source of energy.

http://www.ted.com/talks/steven_cowley_ ... uture.html

[D Tibbets]

Perhaps the presentation was edited, but there is very little information given, other than highlighting some estimates of how long fossel fuels can last. The statement that fusion has only been done at JET is highly misleading and ignores even other Tokamac work in the past and present that is contibuting to the effort. The comment that it will be perhaps the 2030's before comercial power from Tokamac's will be aviable is entirely fnatasy. If ITER can avoid any more delays, most of the experments with it might be done by 2030. If various problems can be managed, DENO might then be built. If this larger and much more complex pilot plant is built and tested with the time scale of ITER, it may be finished by 2070. Once all the science and engeeering is finished, a comercial plant might then be built over a 5-10 yr period. So, unless a 'Manhatten project' effort is initiated, a few Tokamac fusion power plants might start coming online ~ 2080 or 2090. All of this is dependant on no major road blocks being encountered.
The serial approach to the research with these increasingly massive machines promotes these large time scales. Working in parellel could speed it up, but only at greatly larger costs.
This is a major advantage of realitively small machines like the Polywell, FRC's, etc. They are not only much cheaper in terms of cash, but also in terms of time.
Additionally, these smaller machines are probably more usefull for fusion/ fision thorium hybirds if they cannot quite suceed on their own. I'm not certain of the limits, but even a Q of only 0.1 might be sufficient for this application.


Dan Tibbets

[Robthebob]

I watched it a week or two ago actually, and I thought the video was just outdated, surely he doesnt really think we can have fusion from Magnetic confinement by 2030.

We dont even have the materials to make the inner walls, we may not even have materials to withstand that huge amount of energy intensity by 2030, let along have "the way" finished and running.

I'm just saying.

[TallDave]

2030? That's a good one. 2080, maybe.

But any fusion power system has to first be competitive with fission power, fuels for which will not run out for something between 1,000 and 250,000 years.

[chrismb]

C'mon - let's face it. It was a pep-talk/sales pitch. Deeply flawed on a number of 'scientific-like' statements. For example, where Steve says that he'll get tritium by the reaction of a neutron with lithium. OK, so if there is a 1:1 correspondence of tritium manufacture with each neutron released (and that presumes 100% capture!) then where does the energy output come from, seeing as the energy released is in the form of neutrons? Capture them and then all you've done is make a helium plasma - which in turn wil have to be in physical contact with something for its heat to be extracted.

Leave the tok guys in peace! They have their gravy train to steer! (I picture them all sitting in the train with those plastic wheels you give kids, and them all turning it left and right saying "we're steering this train to some really cool places, aren't we!!".)