Lawaranceville E-Newsletter

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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D Tibbets
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Re: Lawaranceville E-Newsletter

Post by D Tibbets »

$200 million in 5 years will produce conclusive results- so Bussard claimed. Would that have happened?

Who knows, but using money scaling, instead of $40 million per year, you use $4 million per year (close to EMC2's budget), then direct scaling would suggest a time frame of ~ 50 years.

I would have preferred a budget close to Bussard's desire, though more intermediate steps (like a 1/2 scale machine, and multiple geometry modifications. A parellel process of multiple machines, perhaps at various labs, to not only pin down the physics, but to also address many engineering issues. Perhaps a program of $500 million over 10 years . Alas, nobody asked for my openion. :(

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Size scaling indeed is limited for FF , as well as FRC. Power outputs of ~ 5-10 MW per unit seems to be the sweet spot. Polywell seems to be open ended, at least till things start melting. Using multiple units might compensate some, especially for FF as it seems to be the most compact, but there are limits. I think a FF might be ideal for powering a space thruster where not much acceleration/sec. is needed, but for a booster/ take off from Earth, nothing would beat a Polywell. Perhaps as important, the waste heat handling in a space craft might also favor the Polywell, at least if the Polywell can reach P-B11 Q's of ~ 20 while FF and FRC is limited to Q's of ~ 3-5. If all of your input energy ends up as waste heat, and ~ 80% of the fusion energy can be converted to useful energy, without the need for secondary waste heat management the Q advantage of the Polywell would be tremendous. In space the waste heat has to be disposed of with radiators, and this incurs a significant weight penalty, which means you need more power for the same acceleration, which means more waste heat to handle, which means more weight, which means.....

Dan Tibbets
To error is human... and I'm very human.

D Tibbets
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Re: Lawaranceville E-Newsletter

Post by D Tibbets »

...

Geometry factors are straight forward inferences from the larger diameter WB that one gets from better spherically conforming magnets. With high B field I have doubts that coil shape optimization will yield significant benefit.
...

Geometry changes in terms of going to higher order polyhedra would seem to work by decreasing the distance from the cans to the centers of the cusps. This would result in tighter cusps at the same B field strength at the magnet can surfaces. The internal volume would be maintained by having more cans on the surface. The leaks per cusp would go down, but the total cusp numbers would increase, the balance is what I (perhaps naively) assume is represented by the claimed ~3-5 fold improvement. Changing the shapes of the magnets would be a different parameter and if helpful I assume would be less significant.

I wonder if improving primary magnetic electron confinement is necessarily a good thing. The longer the electrons are confined, especially in a larger machine, the longer they have to thermalize. By allowing them to leak out and then be recirculated at the original energy may be ideal. So modest improvements of recirculation may be proportionately more beneficial than modest improved magnetic confinement.
This may have been shown with WB7 where moving the nubs may have improved recirculation. Since the original nubs were outside the the midplane of the magnets, by the time electrons reached them, they had already escaped primary magnetic confinement.

This brings up another thought. With ExY drift the electrons being injected/ recirculated would presumably have less losses by hitting the nubs ,if the nubs were moved (like standoffs from the wall), as they were approaching the cusp midline from the outside. IE: the improvement may not only reflect improved total confinement (magnetic confinement plus recirculation) but also better electron injection efficiencies from the electron guns...

Dan Tibbets
To error is human... and I'm very human.

mvanwink5
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Re: Lawaranceville E-Newsletter

Post by mvanwink5 »

Even for 500 million, for the cost of R&D you get an electric power generator that an electric utility pays for now, capital cost wise. This does not account for operating, maintenance, and decommissioning costs. So the R&D cost is a freebee. And Big Brother O won't be trying to shut your doors by hook or snook.
Counting the days to commercial fusion. It is not that long now.

zbarlici
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Location: winnipeg, canada

Re: Lawaranceville E-Newsletter

Post by zbarlici »

well dang it. If demonstrating and commercializing the polywell is turning into another lifelong career prospect, Dr. Bussard is cussing up a storm from beyond the grave and hopefully cursing those that have made it so. Freaking bureaucrats. :evil:

and also if this is the case, i sure hope the chinese hack all the technical info and commercialize it right away. at this point it doesn't matter who does it.

CharlesKramer
Posts: 149
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 4:20 pm

Re: Lawaranceville E-Newsletter

Post by CharlesKramer »

zbarlici wrote:well dang it. If demonstrating and commercializing the polywell is turning into another lifelong career prospect, Dr. Bussard is cussing up a storm from beyond the grave and hopefully cursing those that have made it so. Freaking bureaucrats. :evil:
and also if this is the case, i sure hope the chinese hack all the technical info and commercialize it right away. at this point it doesn't matter who does it.
Nope! The problem here is physics, not funding or even bureaucrats.

The history of fusion can be summarized like this: close, but no cigar. The principle of physics was expressed most eloquently by Bug Bunny in 1943, who used this formulation: "that last step is a doozy!"

In the 1950s at Princeton Prof Spitzer planned a series of stellators: A, B, C, and D. "C" was supposed to prove the concept, and "D" was supposed to be a demo of a commerical model. But he never got past "C."

This pattern continues today with EVERY proposed fusion project. NiF for example --- it is the successor to a series of fusion laser projects (Shiva, Nova, NiF) and each was supposed to really be the doozy. Now NiF has failed -- there is no other word for it -- failed just like its predecessors, and theory is at a loss to explain why.

Polywell continues under a veil of Navy secrecy, but there's no reason to be optimistic the old fusion pattern isn't being weaved again -- first the belief "NOW we've figured it out," then the attempt, then -- when it fails -- an attempt to tweak and poke and amplify and inject something new. The really big question with Polywell is why -- since it's a comparatively cheap techology to tweak and test -- there aren't a dozen publicized better funded efforts. The most likely explanation is the technology for now doesn't justify the investment.

Maybe polywell will overcome it's problems -- or NiF, or Dense Plasma Focus, or even Tokamak. But there is no reason for optimism let alone snootiness let alone conspiracy theories. That last step is a doozy! And many technologies are closer to success to fusion and NEVER make it.

CBK
Last edited by CharlesKramer on Thu May 23, 2013 2:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Skipjack
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Re: Lawaranceville E-Newsletter

Post by Skipjack »

The NIF was never going to work as a good commercial reactor anyway. I think everybody knew that.

CharlesKramer
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Re: Lawaranceville E-Newsletter

Post by CharlesKramer »

Skipjack wrote:The NIF was never going to work as a good commercial reactor anyway. I think everybody knew that.
That may be so. I'm not a physicist, but even I could see NiF is an awful lot of machinery to point at a single tiny pellet without any mechanism to rapidly repeat shots.

But that doesn't make the failure of NiF any less troubling. Theory + and many billions of dollars + decade of construction + decades more of learning from its predecessors said it *should* work. But it didn't. That's bad news for every fusion hopeful.

Objects seen in the mirror are not so close as they may appear.

CBK
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Joseph Chikva
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Re: Lawaranceville E-Newsletter

Post by Joseph Chikva »

CharlesKramer wrote:Objects seen in the mirror are not so close as they may appear.
Absolutely correct. Also recall that mirror in which the most people see at various fusion approaches is corrugated.
And all reasonings of those people about money needed for making commercial fusion is very ridiculous. As very brief knowledge those people have does not give them understanding how difficult is the problems’ solution.

All statements about possibility to run at beta=1, scaling law ~B^4 and so on are wrong. Recently here was quoted an Australian paper on Polywell running at low beta. The question is: why low if high possible? Answer is only one: impossible. And if impossible, so Polywell also at least has not any advantage against other more mature approaches.
But are other "more mature approaches" ready for commercialization right now? The answer is also: no.

PS: Here for example one guy was going to build nickel enrichment facility for only couple thousand dollars. :)

ladajo
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Re: Lawaranceville E-Newsletter

Post by ladajo »

Recently here was quoted an Australian paper on Polywell running at low beta. The question is: why low if high possible?
Why not just ask them? I am sure they will tell you. They are very willing to talk. Or is it the answer doesn't fit your argument?
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Joseph Chikva
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Re: Lawaranceville E-Newsletter

Post by Joseph Chikva »

ladajo wrote:
Recently here was quoted an Australian paper on Polywell running at low beta. The question is: why low if high possible?
Why not just ask them? I am sure they will tell you. They are very willing to talk. Or is it the answer doesn't fit your argument?
Why I should ask them? My question is quite rhetoric and I know also a correct answer too.
And answer is that it is impossible to run any magnetic fusion device at beta=1 regardless to what claimed Dr. Bussard and claims Dr. Nebel.
This is because of instabilities occurring in any machine with low or high intensity and there is not free of instabilities fusion machine will there be convex or concave fields
And now I see Australians running Polywell type device at low beta. I am asking you: what do you think - why?

mvanwink5
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Location: N.C. Mountains

Re: Lawaranceville E-Newsletter

Post by mvanwink5 »

http://focusfusion.org site has been down. Used to be these guys were good at keeping those following their efforts updated, but since the last update in May no update. Now the site is dead. Anyone know what's up? Hopefully they haven't gone the way of polywell, into the Phantom Zone.
Counting the days to commercial fusion. It is not that long now.

zapkitty
Posts: 267
Joined: Fri Apr 09, 2010 8:13 pm

Re: Lawaranceville E-Newsletter

Post by zapkitty »

mvanwink5 wrote:http://focusfusion.org site has been down.
Not down and far from dead :)

LPP reports for non-investors tend to be bimonthly but there's no strict schedule.

Per LPP the next report is about due... along with a video about an LPP presentation at a Google Solve For X :)

The Focus Fusion Society org site is not maintained by LPP but it is still active... it's just that currently the most activity is in the forums:

http://focusfusion.org/index.php/forums/

LPP staff also check in there on occasion.

But the focusfusion.org site proper is pending an upgrade of some kind.

Ivy Matt
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Re: Lawaranceville E-Newsletter

Post by Ivy Matt »

Zapkitty, the whole site seems to be offline.

I can confirm that the site is being upgraded, although I'm not involved in the upgrading myself. I can't say for certain why it's offline, though. *shrug*

LPP and FFS are kind of expecting the Google Solve for X videos to go up Real Soon Now, as in maybe within the next few days.
Temperature, density, confinement time: pick any two.

zapkitty
Posts: 267
Joined: Fri Apr 09, 2010 8:13 pm

Re: Lawaranceville E-Newsletter

Post by zapkitty »

Back after tending to local chores.

The FFS site is and has been functional for me... if it's being worked on now then my admin status is what's letting me in.

So if it's being worked on then that's positive news of a kind although I wonder why whoever is working on it didn't hang out the "undergoing maintenance" notice...

Ivy Matt
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Re: Lawaranceville E-Newsletter

Post by Ivy Matt »

When I try to go to the FFS website (either link), what I get is the following error page:
System Offline

This site is currently offline
No way to login, that I can see.

By the way, I don't necessarily mean the site is being worked on right now; I was only seconding your statement that it is due to be upgraded.
Temperature, density, confinement time: pick any two.

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