What's the hurry?

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

The subsidies are still less than the cost of the equivalent capacity in coal-fired new construction, which would have a useful service life extending as far out as 2070. (10 years to permit & finance, plus 50 year op life).


Is that less per KWH? Or just less total.

BTW is the cost of 100% backup for AE accounted for in your numbers?

i.e. for 1,000 MW net generating capacity you have to pay for the AE plus the cost of 1,000 MW of actual (coal, nuclear, nat. gas) generating capacity.

A report I blogged a few months back said that getting AE up to 10% (IIRC could have been 20%) of grid power only cut CO2 emissions by 2.5%.

And of course that does not account for grid stability issues once AE goes above 20% of grid power - i.e. clouds on solar and sudden drops of wind.

BTW I used to be a big proponent of wind. As I have gotten deeper into it I have soured considerably.

To be competitive wind + storage has to get below $1 a watt. Right now wind (at 33% capacity factor) + backup generation is around $4 to $5 a delivered watt capital cost + the cost of fuel for the backup. And it has to be hot backup because wind/solar output can decline drastically in seconds. Normal dispatch is in 15 minute increments.

And if AE is so great why have Germany, France, and Spain cut subsidies to zero? I think given the cost of power generated a loss of 2 jobs for every job created is credible.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Munchausen
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Post by Munchausen »

Wouldn't 265 Wh/kg make it possible to run essential parts of the american way of life on uranium?

http://panasonic.co.jp/corp/news/off...n091225-3.html

Aeronaut
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Post by Aeronaut »

MSimon wrote:
The subsidies are still less than the cost of the equivalent capacity in coal-fired new construction, which would have a useful service life extending as far out as 2070. (10 years to permit & finance, plus 50 year op life).


Is that less per KWH? Or just less total.

BTW is the cost of 100% backup for AE accounted for in your numbers?

i.e. for 1,000 MW net generating capacity you have to pay for the AE plus the cost of 1,000 MW of actual (coal, nuclear, nat. gas) generating capacity.

A report I blogged a few months back said that getting AE up to 10% (IIRC could have been 20%) of grid power only cut CO2 emissions by 2.5%.

And of course that does not account for grid stability issues once AE goes above 20% of grid power - i.e. clouds on solar and sudden drops of wind.

BTW I used to be a big proponent of wind. As I have gotten deeper into it I have soured considerably.

To be competitive wind + storage has to get below $1 a watt. Right now wind (at 33% capacity factor) + backup generation is around $4 to $5 a delivered watt capital cost + the cost of fuel for the backup. And it has to be hot backup because wind/solar output can decline drastically in seconds. Normal dispatch is in 15 minute increments.

And if AE is so great why have Germany, France, and Spain cut subsidies to zero? I think given the cost of power generated a loss of 2 jobs for every job created is credible.
I'm hedging my aneutronic bets by writing a free special report about what can be done with today's off-the-shelf hardware by a more or less average homeowner with "only" $1k to invest in creating an energy cost reduction snowball that finances further additions of collection, storage, and inverter capacity. Only the export power inverter is a grid-tie, btw.

My system plan integrates a household's entire energy budget, including the car(s) and heating. It uses wind's contributions to the battery bank as welcome surprises which may eventually become predictable due to the installation's historic data. Solar is somewhat easier to accurately predict and quantify in the design phase. Wind is included because of it's ability to extend the collection window beyond sunny weather, but does not envision a 10m mast mount.

Given the 40 and 50 year projected service lives of solar and commercial steam cycle plants, building 1GW of commercial capacity represents an enormous ongoing commitment to buying and cleaning up after the fuel of choice. Read scrubbers, etc.

This fuel bill, coupled with the unionized maintenance labor and an energy inefficient design, should produce a decidedly lopsided TCO/watt advantage for an integrated system design.

The biggest flaw that I've seen is that Sid Solar wants to sell electric roofs. Willy Wind wants to sell 10m high windmills. Sounds like I'll need to pay an ME and a crane service. This does not bode well for periodic maintenance....

The inverter builders respond to these market conditions by producing grid-tie inverters in the 5-10kW range.

So we have to make dead sure we're comparing apples to apples...
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MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

So we have to make dead sure we're comparing apples to apples...
Small wind and solar are even more costly than utility scale.

But I can see where generating electricity at 2X to 10X utility delivered cost and then using the savings to build out a system could be truly revolutionary.

How to make a small fortune in the process: start with a large fortune.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Aeronaut
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Post by Aeronaut »

Have you factored in the cost of transmission lines and on-site maintenance?
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Helius
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Post by Helius »

MSimon wrote: But I can see where generating electricity at 2X to 10X utility delivered cost and then using the savings to build out a system could be truly revolutionary.
" We lose money on each one we build, but we make it up in volume. The customer loyalty and repeat business is fantastic!"

scareduck
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Post by scareduck »

Aeronaut wrote:Have you factored in the cost of transmission lines and on-site maintenance?
On-site maintenance costs aren't exactly a selling point of small wind, where you have far more moving parts and more of them, distributed in a larger area.

Aeronaut
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Post by Aeronaut »

Actually I was thinking commercial wind farms, since they always seem to be lots of miles from existing lines and population centers.

builditsolar dotcom is a directory of an incredible array of low energy/ solar, wind, even EV info, plans, parts lists, and it looks like 99.9% of those sites are absolutely free. Just found it today.
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MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Actually I was thinking commercial wind farms, since they always seem to be lots of miles from existing lines and population centers.


I can see where 50% less wind near the ground in cities will pay for itself through the 10% savings in transmission losses.

BTW build it yourself AE is a hobby. It is not a commercially viable way to generate electricity. i.e. other than the personal satisfaction it is not profitable without me (government subsidy) paying for your hobby.

Let me add that I can see you are not well acquainted with the Devil. Pity. Because the Devil is in the details.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Aeronaut
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Post by Aeronaut »

Quite right, MSimon, I'm finding the range.

Wind has too many moving parts making some noise in hard to reach places to remain a serious candidate for my purposes. My lot is just barely large enough for a 100' mast, for instance, and I doubt that I could get FAA approval due my location in the local pilots' landing practice flight plan.

The real profit of a pellet boiler + solar installation is leveraging a few hours a week (read Saturday morning lifestyle) into saving around $200/mo for up to 40 years- which effectively means no utility bills or power outages for the rest of my life.

Making money selling surplus power to the grid is a wild goose chase imo. Iow, the only mass appeal is the dream for a variety of reasons.
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MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Aeronaut wrote:Quite right, MSimon, I'm finding the range.

Wind has too many moving parts making some noise in hard to reach places to remain a serious candidate for my purposes. My lot is just barely large enough for a 100' mast, for instance, and I doubt that I could get FAA approval due my location in the local pilots' landing practice flight plan.

The real profit of a pellet boiler + solar installation is leveraging a few hours a week (read Saturday morning lifestyle) into saving around $200/mo for up to 40 years- which effectively means no utility bills or power outages for the rest of my life.

Making money selling surplus power to the grid is a wild goose chase imo. Iow, the only mass appeal is the dream for a variety of reasons.
I applaud your efforts. And no doubt you are learning things. But not enough people have your ability. If everyone did it it would be the equivalent of Mao's "Great Leap Forward" i.e. destructive to civilization.

BTW if you are serious about getting off grid you are going to need a large battery bank and inverters. And should you want air conditioning in summer you will need a backup diesel generator. The costs start to mount. And your bank of batteries is going to need replacement every 5 years or so. And the system will need a LOT of maintenance.

If you are using the grid for backup you are not exactly independent of the system. My guess is that you will find the grid way more reliable than your setup. Like when your system is down for repairs.

People pay $200 a month because it frees them for other opportunities. So you have to count the opportunity cost.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Aeronaut
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Post by Aeronaut »

Thanx for the compliment. Unlike the majority, I'm willing to invest the time in a series of searches to learn productive search phrases like aneutronic fusion which exposes options to to the D-T's

A battery bank is a given, and I calculate 5kWh should run my 30A/240V A/C under San Antonio, Tx summer conditions- ~6.4 hrs total run time per day.

So a 2kW array averaging 4 peak production hours a day is on the lower end- around 10 to 12 panels. The clothes dryer is also 30A, and even the 20A water pump could theoretically be done with very little additional capacity this far north.

Unless everything switched on at once, which means I'd need 5kW or higher 2 second surge capacity in the battery->inverter(s).

The 120V circuits' requirements are minor additions to this 240V system base.

But a diesel generator is not part of my plan, and grid-tie inverter(s) are rapidly disappearing from my plan due to the red tape involved with powering the local distribution network while the utility's trying to troubleshoot it during a power outage.

My current understanding is that most of the maintenance should be keeping the batteries in spec. About this time tomorrow I should have my worst case load and battery bank specs fairly well figured out for a 1 hr. collection window and 4 days' storage.
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MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

But a diesel generator is not part of my plan, and grid-tie inverter(s) are rapidly disappearing from my plan due to the red tape involved with powering the local distribution network while the utility's trying to troubleshoot it during a power outage.
This is not a problem with the appropriate inverter.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Skipjack
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Post by Skipjack »

A battery bank is a given, and I calculate 5kWh should run my 30A/240V A/C under San Antonio, Tx summer conditions- ~6.4 hrs total run time per day.
Ahh, lovely San Antonio. I spent a few months there. It is a very nice town, with really friendly people.

KitemanSA
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Post by KitemanSA »

Lets see. San Antonio. That reminds me of something. What was I supposed to remember? Hmmm. It'll come to me. Give me a second...

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