ITER news
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paperburn1
- Posts: 2484
- Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2009 5:53 am
- Location: Third rock from the sun.
Think of the global turmoil if tomorrow EMC2 announced that they were viable and had the paper/hardware to prove it.
One could argue it might start a war (or two).
It would certainly doom several national economies.
Que the, "How fast could it be implemented?" arguement.
I would also like to point out that stock markets trade significantly on futures. Anyone that thinks such an announcement would not have serious market repercussions does not understand the emotional content of free market trading.
One could argue it might start a war (or two).
It would certainly doom several national economies.
Que the, "How fast could it be implemented?" arguement.
I would also like to point out that stock markets trade significantly on futures. Anyone that thinks such an announcement would not have serious market repercussions does not understand the emotional content of free market trading.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)
I dont think that the initial response would be all that dramatic. I think that oil prices would fall, as well as the stock for oil companies and other non traditional energy providers, but then recover almost to the current level, then slowly decline over the next decade as Polywells start to come online.ladajo wrote:Think of the global turmoil if tomorrow EMC2 announced that they were viable and had the paper/hardware to prove it.
One could argue it might start a war (or two).
It would certainly doom several national economies.
Que the, "How fast could it be implemented?" arguement.
I would also like to point out that stock markets trade significantly on futures. Anyone that thinks such an announcement would not have serious market repercussions does not understand the emotional content of free market trading.
To the public eye, it would not be "dramatic". I agree. But, I would argue that on the inside circles it would be major drama.
For some governments, it would also be major drama. The Russians for example.
For some governments, it would also be major drama. The Russians for example.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)
I think that all these governments are already aware of the fact that at some point their fossile fuel resources wont be able to sustain their economy anymore. One reason why Dubai is building like crazy and is trying to attract other businesses is because they know that their oil riches have an expiration date. That inevitable fact will only be somewhat accelerated should the polywell come online.ladajo wrote:To the public eye, it would not be "dramatic". I agree. But, I would argue that on the inside circles it would be major drama.
For some governments, it would also be major drama. The Russians for example.
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Joseph Chikva
- Posts: 2039
- Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2011 4:30 am
Think about Iran. Their whole premise for doing anything nuclear is for energy. If we offer, free of charge, polywell reactors for producing energy, what can they say? Also, if countries now have access to energy not from oil, then isolating a country like Iran is that much easier. What about Saudi Arabi? What about building a crap load of polywells in Afghanistan? Abundant energy changes everything. Water. Schools (night school anyone). Refrigeration (healthy food). Vaccines. etc.
The implications of polywell working are difficult to understate. Especially if PB11 is in the game.
The implications of polywell working are difficult to understate. Especially if PB11 is in the game.
Famous last words, "Hey, watch this!"
Dubai has already sealed its own fate with excessive loans and wasteful spending of them.Skipjack wrote:I think that all these governments are already aware of the fact that at some point their fossile fuel resources wont be able to sustain their economy anymore. One reason why Dubai is building like crazy and is trying to attract other businesses is because they know that their oil riches have an expiration date. That inevitable fact will only be somewhat accelerated should the polywell come online.ladajo wrote:To the public eye, it would not be "dramatic". I agree. But, I would argue that on the inside circles it would be major drama.
For some governments, it would also be major drama. The Russians for example.
Polywell entering the scene will radically re-write the timelines as they are seen now. No good can come out of it. The power-elite of these dependant econmies will for the most part just simply eject with the riches they have. They will for the most part feel no loyalty. Most of them already have "escape" plans in place. Money is "offshore", real estate is purchased, Visas/Permanent Residence/Citizenship issues already settled.
When they do bolt, they will not look back, and with them will go most, if any incentive for any other nation to do anything useful with the countries they abandoned. If oil & gas are suddnely projected to have limted to no future value in the interantional arena, just what usefulness do you see for these nations? Most of them have no viable alternative to self sustain.
Why would you go to Dubai for business meetings? I can think of hundreds of other places with nice hotels and conference centers that do not have the need to stay indoors at all times. Have you ever even been there?
Russia at least has a chance, if the power-elite do not completely gut it when they bail. They could do some agriculture, mining & manufacturing. Most of the other countries have got squat.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)
I really do think that the sudden introduction of a technology (Say Polywell here) that brings distributed stand alone cheap energy will cause some fights and stress. It can not, especially given the current global conditions. I think the magnitude and durations of the impact is up for some debate. What I do not think is up for debate is that it will be REALLY good for some, and REALLY bad for some others.
It is the REALLY bad category of folks that I think we should pay some attention too beforehand.
As Gary Brown noted above, Iran is a great case in point. They need about $90/barrel of oil to just sustain themselves in a painful manner. Drop that to $45/barrel or less as a long term issue and what do you think the regime is going to be thinking about for survival tactics? They are barely containing the populace as is, and have created another tinder box of "us v. them". Where "us" is the ruling power structure that routinely steps on the heads of "them" the populace. They have been very busy creating a lose-lose environment just like Assad did in Syria, and Saddam did in Iraq. Once that fight starts for real, like it is in Syria, you had better hope it contains within the border. And if you don't think that the fear of survival will cause them to try and stoke distraction fires elsewhere, then you really do not grasp how international politics mixed with fear for survival can function.
I firmly believe that that introduction of something like Polywell is going to change the world for the better. But it is also going to get some folks dead. When you change the game, someone is going to lose badly.
It is the REALLY bad category of folks that I think we should pay some attention too beforehand.
As Gary Brown noted above, Iran is a great case in point. They need about $90/barrel of oil to just sustain themselves in a painful manner. Drop that to $45/barrel or less as a long term issue and what do you think the regime is going to be thinking about for survival tactics? They are barely containing the populace as is, and have created another tinder box of "us v. them". Where "us" is the ruling power structure that routinely steps on the heads of "them" the populace. They have been very busy creating a lose-lose environment just like Assad did in Syria, and Saddam did in Iraq. Once that fight starts for real, like it is in Syria, you had better hope it contains within the border. And if you don't think that the fear of survival will cause them to try and stoke distraction fires elsewhere, then you really do not grasp how international politics mixed with fear for survival can function.
I firmly believe that that introduction of something like Polywell is going to change the world for the better. But it is also going to get some folks dead. When you change the game, someone is going to lose badly.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)
Then again, we already have something that does pretty much what folks here hope Polywell will do and has been around for about 50 years (LFTRs) yet the world is mostly ignorant about it. What makes us think that we can break thru the fossilopoly even if Polywell proves positive?
If Polywell talks, fossilopoly money can make Green Peace SQUAWK even louder.
If Polywell talks, fossilopoly money can make Green Peace SQUAWK even louder.
Dubai can currently afford being wasteful with their spending. They are desparately trying to attract wealthy and capable people and their businesses to their country before the oil flow stops. Unfortunately, you are right. There is very little incentive for people to go there. Their fanatic religion is one of the things putting people off.ladajo wrote: Dubai has already sealed its own fate with excessive loans and wasteful spending of them.
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GIThruster
- Posts: 4686
- Joined: Tue May 25, 2010 8:17 pm
Wasn't some visiting woman recently given the death penalty for having sex on the beach? Seemed to me the guy was never even charged but it was all the evil woman's fault. That's just one example of how completely crazy islam and Sharia law are at their core.
"Courage is not just a virtue, but the form of every virtue at the testing point." C. S. Lewis
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Joseph Chikva
- Posts: 2039
- Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2011 4:30 am
Your reasonings are not quite correct.ladajo wrote:I really do think that the sudden introduction of a technology (Say Polywell here) that brings distributed stand alone cheap energy will cause some fights and stress. It can not, especially given the current global conditions. I think the magnitude and durations of the impact is up for some debate. What I do not think is up for debate is that it will be REALLY good for some, and REALLY bad for some others.
It is the REALLY bad category of folks that I think we should pay some attention too beforehand.
As Gary Brown noted above, Iran is a great case in point. They need about $90/barrel of oil to just sustain themselves in a painful manner. Drop that to $45/barrel or less as a long term issue and what do you think the regime is going to be thinking about for survival tactics? They are barely containing the populace as is, and have created another tinder box of "us v. them". Where "us" is the ruling power structure that routinely steps on the heads of "them" the populace. They have been very busy creating a lose-lose environment just like Assad did in Syria, and Saddam did in Iraq. Once that fight starts for real, like it is in Syria, you had better hope it contains within the border. And if you don't think that the fear of survival will cause them to try and stoke distraction fires elsewhere, then you really do not grasp how international politics mixed with fear for survival can function.
I firmly believe that that introduction of something like Polywell is going to change the world for the better. But it is also going to get some folks dead. When you change the game, someone is going to lose badly.
As with the same success you can consider competition between China and USA. And I am not sure that USA economics will give in more slowly at low oil prices. I am just confident in the contrary.