General Fusion in the news

[choff]

I think Polywell has the image problem that the concept seem's to simple for the average investor to consider credible. With General Fusion they see heavy duty machinery being brought to bear on the problem, steam and pistons and molten lead.

[mvanwink5]

I think that new fusion funding spotlights all dark horse fusion efforts and increases EMC2 chance of funding. Go GF, go EMC2, etc....

[asdfuogh]

> Polywell has the image problem that the concept seem's to simple for the average investor to consider credible

First of all, if you are trying to get funding for a scientific venture, you need to get an unrelated scientificially credible critic to analyze the concept. You don't appeal to investors with a specialty product and hope they understand how it works. If you go to them with a product, they'll have technical advisors on hand so this is not really an issue with "average" investors.

The real image problem that Polywell has is its cluster of supporters. I was interested in the Polywell concept back when I was in undergrad, but I was increasingly turned off by the people who support it. The same people who call tokamak supporters closed-minded seem to be the same people who cry out at other ideas getting funding. The same people who mock tokamak progress seem to be the same people who project these ridiculously optimistic future success stories (seriously, why were you guys not more skeptical about LM's numberless claim?).

In any case, I'm still interested in the concept, but I sure as hell don't want to be known as a Polywell supporter in real life. It'd be detrimental to me at my current stage.

[mvanwink5]

You make no sense whatsoever, science wise nor investor wise.

[ladajo]

Going back to what I said about GF, to make my thinking more clear;
Think about the sense of hand waving that GF is doing about the plasma physics side of the argument. They, in general (no pun intended), spend a lot of time talking about how to squish things, and not so much on what happens when things get squished. Also, think about the products and who is on the bench in regard to what they have put out on the plasma physics side of things. No real names from the plasma community, and no real depth or review on the predictions they have made.
I really think they are setting themselves up to hit some hard problems in the plasma arena by not giving it it's full due going into the argument.

[mvanwink5]

spend a lot of time talking about how to squish things, and not so much on what happens when things get squished.

Hmmm. As far as I can see, the goal of their experimental plasma research on 'squishing' the plasma is to reach the point where fusion occurs and neutrons are released. The conditions that produce fusion is known as far as I understand it, no? From there the liquid lead both shields and provides a means to extract the heat. Lithium is for generation of the tritium. ITER has done a lot of work on that subject of production of tritium and its handling which GF is benefiting from (and GF does not bash ITER which is reasonable for a group that will 'borrow' such tech).

Still, the observation that there is a lot of tough, challenging engineering surrounding just the production of heat from fusion is a fair point, but that is true of all fusion projects as fusion tech is a pioneering endeavor. However, the biggest issue for fusion at this point is just getting to commercial energy out of fusion, not the engineering related to auxiliary subsystems.

If you have another point you were intending perhaps further clarification might be worthwhile.

[crowberry]

GF has reported that they have at least one explosive configuration that works although it is impractical to implement. However, the existence of one in their minds implies others and their belief that it is not a matter of whether it can be done but when (how long). GF also is confident in the compression modeling as the progress in fluid dynamics is advanced, so it is unnecessary to build a larger in-between device. Short of announcing the full size prototype project initiation I can't see further technical announcements.

Yes, Michel Laberge said in the December PPPL seminar that their compressions are MHD unstable and that they have a computer model to compress the plasma in a MHD stable manner, but which is unpractical to realize as such. He also said that their next steps are to improve, build and test their compression method. If they succeed in that, then they will get a nice neutron burst, which is surely a break trough that they will report on. Their latest cost estimate is $500 M for building the full sized prototype reactor. To collect that amount of money they really need to have hard published data on the performance of all their subsystems.

GF said in connection to the piston sealing problem that they will outsource also other engineering problems, so we will probably hear more about those too in the future.

[mvanwink5]

To collect that amount of money they really need to have hard published data on the performance of all their subsystems.

Can't argue there. Such a publication though will shake some trees. Hopefully EMC2 can scrounge up some / enough money soon.

[crowberry]

Going back to what I said about GF, to make my thinking more clear;
Think about the sense of hand waving that GF is doing about the plasma physics side of the argument. They, in general (no pun intended), spend a lot of time talking about how to squish things, and not so much on what happens when things get squished. Also, think about the products and who is on the bench in regard to what they have put out on the plasma physics side of things. No real names from the plasma community, and no real depth or review on the predictions they have made.
I really think they are setting themselves up to hit some hard problems in the plasma arena by not giving it it's full due going into the argument.

The first thing GF did was to show that they could get neutrons from their simple water tank experiment to demonstrate that a liquid can compress a plasma to fusion conditions. The next step was to show that they can build the piston system with the required velocity and timing precision. Currently they are indeed worrying on how to get the plasma compressed in a stable manner. They also acknowledge that this will be their greatest challenge. See page 11 to 16 of this ARPA-E workshop document:
http://www.arpa-e.energy.gov/sites/defa ... rt_Out.pdf

[ladajo]

Currently they are indeed worrying on how to get the plasma compressed in a stable manner. They also acknowledge that this will be their greatest challenge. See page 11 to 16 of this ARPA-E workshop document:
http://www.arpa-e.energy.gov/sites/defa ... rt_Out.pdf

The heart of my point. Also look at the HP they have in human capital to address this. Not very robust, and lacking some torque.
It is essentially an "if we build it, fusion will surely come" approach. The plasma may have other ideas...

[mvanwink5]

'HP'? help me out here... Do you know their consultants on board? Seems to me that up to now they have made significant progress. Almost sounds like funding envy if I didn't know better.

[crowberry]

The heart of my point. Also look at the HP they have in human capital to address this. Not very robust, and lacking some torque.
It is essentially an "if we build it, fusion will surely come" approach. The plasma may have other ideas...

I don't know how many plasma physicists GF has employed currently, but the new $27 M funding will allow them to hire quite a few more people... Currently they are seeking at least one more plasma physicist:

http://www.generalfusion.com/wp-content ... -02-12.pdf
http://www.workopolis.com/jobsearch/job/15929134

Michel Laberge has stressed on several occasions that fusion is a very hard problem to solve, so I don't think they assume that "fusion will surely come". In the beginning they were overly optimistic with their schedules, but they have learned that lesson by now.

[crowberry]

In the following two articles GF says explicitly that they will hire more researchers with the new funding. Another interesting news is that they will continue with their research for two more years until they start building the full scale prototype reactor.

General Fusion raises $27m, construction on large-scale prototype two years away

CEO Nathan Gilliland told Business in Vancouver the company is using the money to boost its research budget as the prospect of commercialization inches closer.

“We’ve made a lot of progress over the last five years and at this point want to prove out…the final couple pieces of our technology,” Gilliland said, adding he expects the company to begin building a large-scale prototype after two more years of research.

https://www.biv.com/article/2015/5/gene ... type-two-/

General Fusion raises another $27 million to advance its reactor concept

The new money is a validation of General Fusion’s approach to the problem of developing a working fusion reactor and its progress over the past five years towards that goal, Gilliland says, but also of fusion energy in general, which is viewed in some circles as a technology that will never happen. “The fusion industry is coming into its own,” he says.

“We expect to do a little bit of hiring” with the help of the cash infusion, he adds, but he does not expect it to affect the company’s technology development timelines one way or the other. “We expect in the next couple of years to prove out our approach,” he says, at which point General Fusion will commence work on a full-scale prototype reactor.

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/innovat ... r-concept/

[mvanwink5]

at which point General Fusion will commence work on a full-scale prototype reactor.

I like to see plans, dates and times otherwise 2 years = 2 years 11 months and 29 days and 'commence work' means the board authorizes finance to be solicited, then by the end of 1 1/2 years a project team is put together and the last screw is turned 10 years later. Yawn.... But NG is a waffle-smith with words chosen to mean whatever, to be decided later.

I would suggest that the key milestone that triggers two years construction is when they have figured out and tested the stable under compression spheromak shape. Until then they will do filler detail work like how to make the anvils and what color to paint the building.

[ladajo]

HP = Horse Power.

To date, most HP has not gone into the Plasma side of things. They do need to get some real expertise there. It is like the North Eastern approach to college legitimacy. Game the system to get money, then game the money to build credibility, then use the credibility to get more money.
I applaud the maneuver effort on GF's part to gain $$$. It has worked so far. Now, we head into a long phase of them making the "magic box" do something to justify the money.

Don't get me wrong, I hope they succeed as much as anyone else. I only have intended to point out an imbalance in their methodology to date from a comprehensive output perspective. Ie. What have they been doing to get them to the goal? Where are they ahead, where are they behind. It seems Plasma has been a lower priority consideration to date.