2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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mvanwink5
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2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby mvanwink5 » Thu Jan 30, 2014 12:23 pm

There are many dark horse fusion projects that have had delays that seem to have conspired to push their "effective net" dates into 2014. So, in grand wild speculative spirit (yet with some thought), how about picking a 2014 dark horse announcement trifecta, bets for 1st, 2nd, 3rd placement? Odds?
Off the wall thoughts...
0. first quarter [XXX] 10% someone will announce.
1. mid year [GF, XXX] 20%, someone or two will announce.
2. 3rd quarter [YYY, XXX, GF] 50%, some one or maybe three will announce or have already announced.
3. year end, or 2015 [LM, LPP] 10% either LM or LPP will announce.
4. 2015, 2016 Helion 10%
5. 2017 Sorlox 1%
6. Fringe plus (LENR), never, 0%, apologies to true believers, it is just my opinion
******
My 2014 dark horse trifecta is (drumroll) EMC2 to announce first "effective net" (to get funding), GF to announce second "effective net" (and funded), TriAlpha to announce third "effective net" (forced out into the light due to previous 2 announcements of "effective net.")
******
Thoughts:
*TriAlpha won't be first to announce, but could be second (reason is project time + TA is still being funded).
*LM also won't be first to announce, more likely 2015 if they don't drop out, meager funding, small team, fusion is just too tricky for skunks.
*EMC2 still thinks their device will work (base this on cheesy website resurfacing), Navy funding must be either meager or has dropped the project for budget reasons (website + no FPDS report - money should have been contracted long ago for project continuity), by now EMC2 is either close (how many years WB-8 testing time?) and needs a bigger machine to remove doubts, or they have it proven and Navy does not have the guts to take funding to the next mega bucks level, or Navy figures why not make some VC risk their cash. If one of the latter three cases holds then EMC2 will need funding and may be forced to announce first quarter just to get funding. For this reason I think they will be forced to announce "effective net" first quarter 2014 just to get money from someone / VC, (Elon Musk?) for a machine.
*GF was held up by full-scale plasma injector challenges, chalice stability breakthrough was made (mid 2013?), then scale up began before Sept 2013, so I expect mid 2014 to reach success with full scale plasma injector, and to initiate net machine funding (all three net full scale components proved: 1 meter sphere, full scale piston, full scale plasma injector -> fund the net machine). Hence, net machine funding means "effective net" announced. Mid year.
*LPP meager funds, shoestring technical problems, thinks it has solutions, will take to 2014 years end to find out, or 2015.
*Helion meager funds. After everyone else announces gets adequate funding (too late?).
*Sorlox one step up from fringe, no idea of possibility.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

Skipjack
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby Skipjack » Thu Jan 30, 2014 2:23 pm

This is an interesting topic.
I think that MSNW might be able to reach break even with their fusion driven rocket this year (note that the device is not intended for energy production). They are also working on a new prototype for Helion, but I think that break even experiments on that are still at least a year out. No publications have been made yet that use the device and I am sure it will need some tuning of components and measurement devices to get there.
I think the same about Tri Alpha. AFAIK, they are still working on their C3 device (again, no publications have been made yet that use the device).
Lawrenceville Plasma Physics might (!) be able to show break even this year.
Sandia is hopeful as well.
I think that GF is still a year out from break even, judging from their latest presentation, but there is a small chance they will make it.
I don't know anything about EMC2. So I have no opinion whatsoever on when they will show break even, same with Sorlox and Lockheed.

Personally, I would be happy to have some more concrete plans and details announced by some of the contenders this year, particularly EMC2, Tri Alpha, Lockheed and Sorlox. All of these are overdue in regards to publishing new results and roadmaps.

If we hear a break even announcement this year, it will be towards the end of the year, most likely "novemberish".
I think Sandia, LPP and MSNW with equal likelihood (25%), GF with 10%, Tri Alpha and Helion with 5%.

Carl White
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby Carl White » Fri Jan 31, 2014 11:09 pm

by now EMC2 is either close (how many years WB-8 testing time?) and needs a bigger machine to remove doubts, or they have it proven and Navy does not have the guts to take funding to the next mega bucks level, or Navy figures why not make some VC risk their cash.


Have we given up on Lockheed Martin here? They might be running with Polywell, or they might have something of their own they claim they'll be demonstrating in four years (less now since time has passed).

mvanwink5
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby mvanwink5 » Fri Jan 31, 2014 11:32 pm

Carl, I know more about GF than EMC2's polywell effort, and next to nothing about what LM is doing or done. So, from my view point I have no idea so I discount them (LM), but maybe I am wrong to do that. Perhaps you have seen something substantial. At least TriAlpha has published articles, even though I have never seen a schedule or progress guestimate.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

GIThruster
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby GIThruster » Sun Feb 02, 2014 10:33 pm

Its important to realize, none of these folks are doing basic science. It is all technology development, so when they have funding, there is no reason to explain what they're doing. It's only when they need funding, they need to release results. LPP and Poly are both being carried by the taxpayer, so they release results. LockMart, not so much.
"Courage is not just a virtue, but the form of every virtue at the testing point." C. S. Lewis

zapkitty
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby zapkitty » Sun Feb 02, 2014 11:43 pm

GIThruster wrote:LPP and Poly are both being carried by the taxpayer, so they release results. LockMart, not so much.


... ?

I'll need to inform Eric Lerner of his newfound government funding immediately. He will be quite pleased.

Caution... living in a cloud of buzzwords just might obscure an oncoming train.

Skipjack
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby Skipjack » Mon Feb 03, 2014 5:00 am

GIThruster wrote:Its important to realize, none of these folks are doing basic science. It is all technology development, so when they have funding, there is no reason to explain what they're doing. It's only when they need funding, they need to release results. LPP and Poly are both being carried by the taxpayer, so they release results. LockMart, not so much.

Uhhhm, last I checked Lockmart got more government funding than anyone else. I am sure some of that went into the fusion project.
I would also like to know what government funding LPP got.

ladajo
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby ladajo » Mon Feb 03, 2014 1:59 pm

I am sure some of that went into the fusion project.


Profit from other projects maybe. But nothing direct. This is a go-it-alone, typical of some of LM's work.
If they come up with something cool, they will bring it forth and reap.
Strange how quiet they have been since the initial annoucement.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Skipjack
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby Skipjack » Mon Feb 03, 2014 2:20 pm

ladajo wrote:
I am sure some of that went into the fusion project.

Strange how quiet they have been since the initial annoucement.

The original announcement was really annoyingly sparse in technical details and none of the journalists reporting about it provided more information than the video of the announcement had. They either never bothered to follow up, or Lockmart kept things under wraps. In the latter case, I do have to wonder why they even bothered making such an announcement then.
I sometimes wonder whether they were fishing for government money. Most of their large projects are government financed.

Betruger
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby Betruger » Mon Feb 03, 2014 2:39 pm

LM: Very curious.

Who would've guessed this would be the state of fusion, back in 07?
You can do anything you want with laws except make Americans obey them. | What I want to do is to look up S. . . . I call him the Schadenfreudean Man.

ladajo
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby ladajo » Mon Feb 03, 2014 2:41 pm

The skunk-works idea projects are typically out of hyde for proof of concept. Then the government ponies up and LM recoups initial outlays.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)

What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

mvanwink5
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby mvanwink5 » Mon Feb 03, 2014 3:05 pm

I expect it was just LM corporate "make us look good PR" fluff... probably upper management's idea of gee whiz, we're still cutting edge and not just military. Look, this fusion business is as tough as it gets, as plasma is strange with unpredictable twists, son of Murphy. A lot of good work and clever fusion ideas fail (nearly all) even with deep pockets and Nobel level talent. Skunkworks or not, the PR did not show GF or TriAlpha level of seriousness. It just looked hinkey. I expect the project to meet death by file cabinet silverfish.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

ladajo
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby ladajo » Mon Feb 03, 2014 3:07 pm

I am curious though. They put it out there, and it has been long enough. Nothing since.
Maybe the silverfish are already munching.

May be worthwhile to poke around the names that surfaced with it to see what they are doing right now.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)

What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Skipjack
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Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:29 pm

Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby Skipjack » Mon Feb 03, 2014 3:59 pm

ladajo wrote:May be worthwhile to poke around the names that surfaced with it to see what they are doing right now.

I do that every now and then. Nothing so far :(

crowberry
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby crowberry » Mon Feb 03, 2014 6:09 pm

ladajo wrote:
I am sure some of that went into the fusion project.


Profit from other projects maybe. But nothing direct. This is a go-it-alone, typical of some of LM's work.
If they come up with something cool, they will bring it forth and reap.
Strange how quiet they have been since the initial annoucement.


Last summer when Google arranged the Solve for X conference in June LM was attending the meeting. Unfortunately only LPP has published their presentations from that event. The other participants listed by Eric Lerner were TAE and GF. Lerner claimed LPP had the best triple product values of all four companies participating, so LM is not ahead of LPP.

Last December at the Fusion Power Associates meeting TAE was also attending, but their presentation has unfortunately not been published on the website, so it is hard to know how they are progressing.

Any company in the position to achieved break even would hardly keep this result to themselves unless they would be very well funded. Without data on WB-8 it is impossible to know how far EMC2 is, so they are also a dark horse.

LPP said that their schedule will probably not allow for break even experiments with pB11 in 2014, so that leaves GF as a possible candidate for the first to announce break even in 2014. Sorlox could be a true dark horse followup, but with no data on where they are currently it is hard to know if their concept works at all.


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