2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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mvanwink5
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby mvanwink5 » Wed Mar 19, 2014 2:18 am

Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

CharlesKramer
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby CharlesKramer » Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:59 am

================================
CBK
Blog: http://www.provideocoalition.com/ckramer

mvanwink5
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby mvanwink5 » Wed Mar 26, 2014 5:39 am

CBK,
Your logic is just hand waving and such hand waving has no true predictive power. So far GF is not that far behind their research plans as GF reached their plasma injector test objectives a month ago, along with their understanding how to compress the plasma spheromak stably. Naysayers believed it would be years later than it ended up being, if could be done at all. Further, the issue of RM instability was known up front, and GF said there is a risk the RM issue may be a show stopper. So, at this point with other issues resolved and with the needed insight of the details of how the spheromak plasma has to be compressed, GF is now working on solving their "first wall" problem of liquid lead surface RM instability with plasma details they could only have gotten by doing the prior work. Simply saying that the RM stability problem hasn't been solved tells us nothing about timing of the solution appearance or if an eventual solution is possible.

If hand waving really had the power to give answers then such effortless "research" would have been used, papers would been published, and money saved. But real world experience is that there is no substitute for real experimental knowledge combined with real theory. Indeed, that is the whole problem that the naysayers have, all they are doing is blowing smoke and claiming Cassandra's divination with no real insight, just hand waving.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

choff
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby choff » Wed Mar 26, 2014 4:03 pm

Remember that peak oil collapse theory relies on the effect of rising energy prices on a fractional reserve debt based monetary system. Nations can greatly put off the day of reckoning by converting to a credit/equity based high reserve monetary system.
CHoff

happyjack27
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby happyjack27 » Wed Mar 26, 2014 5:11 pm


CharlesKramer
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby CharlesKramer » Fri Mar 28, 2014 11:37 am

================================
CBK
Blog: http://www.provideocoalition.com/ckramer

Skipjack
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby Skipjack » Fri Mar 28, 2014 12:51 pm

I am with Charles on this. You can not have unlimited economic growth without access to unlimited energy. Much of the recent recession and slow economic growth has been caused by the (still) high oil prices. The current US oil boom is only a result of the high oil prices that make exploiting those reserves economic. If oil prices were lower, no one would bother.
So we wont get out of the economic problems if we don't find a solution to the energy crisis. Paradoxically, governments around the world rather give the money to banks than to energy research. Politicians are treacherous idiots.

happyjack27
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby happyjack27 » Fri Mar 28, 2014 1:10 pm

yeah, i do agree with that. esp. after flipping the logic: as is often the case, not a implies not b is much more solid than a implies b. (esp. when the null hypothesis is not b, as opposed to b)

mvanwink5
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby mvanwink5 » Fri Mar 28, 2014 1:37 pm

Skipjack, that last point is something we all agree on. On the other points, I prefer to think in terms of the positive contribution that lower cost, bountiful energy makes to humankind's destiny, as viewed looking at the stars. The rest of what I was going to say was a rant, so I did everyone a favor and deleted it. :D
Best regards,

PS My hopes for a Trifecta this year is slip sliding towards 2015, but I haven't thrown the betting stub away just yet... GF may figure out a solution to their first wall problem (first wall issue was originally off my radar), which if GF can solve it with the 1 meter test reactor and 14 pistons, the larger 3 meter reactor with 200 pistons should be easier (I think). And, further, EMC2 may have a pony in the garage after all. On the third dark horse, if GF can figure out how to stably compress the spheromak plasma, surely Tri-Alpha has figured it out, or is close behind.

I keep thinking about the rest of the solar system and even the stars instead of scrapping over earth dirt.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

mvanwink5
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby mvanwink5 » Fri Apr 11, 2014 7:51 pm

Good thing I kept my betting stub, it looks like GF is thinking 300 pistons will do the job as they seem to be thinking of starting the full size prototype build this year. My guess is the long lead item is the 3 meter diameter sphere. Target would be three years to put the prototype in service. The point is that the modeling has to show it will work before the full size prototype is financed.

Now, I am waiting to hear what the heck is going on with Polywell funding. The way these FPDS.gov reports go, there is a major lag time between a report change and the little squeak we get on .gov, and the project completion is now 4-30-14... Zzzzzzz... Look, those guys don't work for food. Surely we will hear something with their garage door soon, or some resumes will hit Linkedin. They will have built a space ship powered by a Polywell before we see anything on FPDS.gov :D
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

crowberry
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby crowberry » Thu May 08, 2014 3:38 pm

The race towards break even has become even more interesting now that JET is attempting to break their record from 1997 by running in 2017 with DT.

LPP has as their target achieving break even with pB11, but in order to do that they will have to achieve a triple product value larger than the limit for DT break even. If they can do that, then it will be a big milestone even if they will not use the DT fuel. Would that still be counted as a trifecta goal if they surpass the JT-60 DT equivalent Q value of 1.25?

Skipjack
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby Skipjack » Thu May 08, 2014 4:10 pm


crowberry
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby crowberry » Thu May 08, 2014 4:54 pm


Skipjack
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby Skipjack » Thu May 08, 2014 5:16 pm


mvanwink5
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby mvanwink5 » Mon Jun 02, 2014 9:49 pm

Next Big Future has an article reviewing the different fusion efforts, (but missed Sorlox)
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.


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