Talk-Polywell.org

Way to be the Debbie Downer

Maui wrote:Way to be the Debbie Downer ;)

I was being conservative.

Well, at last a picture of the lab for you guys. I've seen it a couple of times. All I felt free to tell you was "shiny."

Now you see what's shiny. Although the shiny parts show up better from the ground level and closer up.

Let's see if I can keep my wife off the phone in case the billionaires start calling me again. I expect Dr. Park is easier to get in touch with than Dr. Bussard was, though.

It would be cool to visit.

7 years for break even. That is quite a while away
Is that with TD or PB11? If it is TD, I would rather see the money go to Helion. Their device is a lot more suitable for TD.
Well anyway, at least it is not negative news, even though the news is not quite the sensation we were all hoping for.

Better to say you are 7 years away and do it in 4 than to say you are 4 tears away and take 12.

Just like we were supposed to know in 2 years 5 years ago?

Maui wrote:Just like we were supposed to know in 2 years 5 years ago?

This is experimental stuff. Shite happens.

EMC2 has WB-8 except the guns. They have tons of operational experience, not like they are starting from scratch. Get some big guns and fire it up if there is question of scaling from Mini B to Maxi-8. That would blow any clouds away. No. MSimon was just trying to chase away the fools. EMC2 will be able to give the unabridged story to true investors. PB11 would solve a lot of issues, the biggest is the D-T first wall issue, which Skipjack thinks Helion can deal with, and certainly General fusion can.

The biggest hurdle is getting the right investors. If the story told is the one MSimon told forget it. I am surprised MSimon is back in the Conservative ranks, who'd have thunk it.

mvanwink5 wrote:The biggest hurdle is getting the right investors. If the story told is the one MSimon told forget it. I am surprised MSimon is back in the Conservative ranks, who'd have thunk it.

Socially liberal, fiscally conservative. The government out of our wallets and out of our bedrooms. In other words - libertarian. Not to be confused with Libertarian.

I don't think getting investors will be a problem. Getting the right ones may be.

Yes, well, I could have put (sarc), but I thought it highly unlikely anyone would believe it wasn't.

At this stage with the cusp characterization, existing experimental data for WB-8, equipment on hand, and plasma experience with the existing team, I would think it easy to put in place a deal similar to the one General Fusion has. Whether or not Russian oil VC's will be allowed is another matter (like Tri-Alpha and General Fusion). However, Chinese VC's are aplenty if there are no American VC's with brains and foresight (Chinese at this point seem to be behind in the dark horse fusion technology, as far as I know, no telling what goes on behind the still exiting Great Wall of China.)

If Park & Co. have a believable first wall solution, the risk goes down to nearly zero. If not, PB11 (like Tri-Alpha) is a bit riskier and the VC deal gets worse.

(Deleted rant about socialists and cronies).

Variations on my three earlier questions:

1. Why did Navy stop funding Polywell? Impatience? Politics? Money?
2. Would Dr. Park build the full-scale Polywell if he could get the $200+ million? Is it really necessary to test the bigger guns on the WB-8 first, or is he asking for "only" $30 million because he knows VC people will never fund a full scale Polywell unless it's a "sure thing"? Are we going to waste three more years "making sure?"
3. The potential rewards of a successful Polywell seem big enough that in this case it seems to be worth the risk to go for the full-scale machine at this point. Or am I missing some really important information here (ie testing bigger guns on WB8) that both Dr. Bussard and Dr. Nebel also somehow missed?

Bill Flint

classicpenny wrote:Variations on my three earlier questions:

1. Why did Navy stop funding Polywell? Impatience? Politics? Money?
2. Would Dr. Park build the full-scale Polywell if he could get the $200+ million? Is it really necessary to test the bigger guns on the WB-8 first, or is he asking for "only" $30 million because he knows VC people will never fund a full scale Polywell unless it's a "sure thing"? Are we going to waste three more years "making sure?"
3. The potential rewards of a successful Polywell seem big enough that in this case it seems to be worth the risk to go for the full-scale machine at this point. Or am I missing some really important information here (ie testing bigger guns on WB8) that both Dr. Bussard and Dr. Nebel also somehow missed?

Bill Flint

The next scheme includes SC magnets. Maybe that is enough of an engineering change to warrant some caution. Or maybe big guns + SCs. I have heard that Dr. Park is very cautious in his engineering. With a very big budget charging ahead causes heartburn. With a small budget it causes collapse. If you can paper over your mistakes with $$ it doesn't hurt much to make them.