A Sequel to The Google Talk

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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Tom Ligon
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Re: A Sequel to The Google Talk

Postby Tom Ligon » Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:49 pm

Let me try that. OK, I'm an angel investor. I'm looking at $300M to fund a proof of concept demonstration. If it works, I will have zero difficulty attracting my filthy rich friends to put billions into building the first powerplant, and then much lower amounts into building copies. Worldwide. I've got people who will look up the market stats and potential profits. Yup, Park's numbers were a bit simplified, but the Electric Power Research Institute has all this stuff at hand.

So, what's at risk. Hmmm, I was thinking about that yacht the size of a small cruise ship. But really, how often would I take that out. And maybe I really don't need THREE mansions in Malibu.

You know, I was watching that Edison special on PBS a few nights ago. Maybe Edison is right. Maybe this could be really fun, even if it flops. And it certainly won't ruin me. And, after all, Edison was right. That electricity thing really did catch on.

Nope, the investor is sold, except there are some terms to discuss. Something about a big statue in his honor, and owning the world.

MSimon
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Re: A Sequel to The Google Talk

Postby MSimon » Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:53 pm

GIT,

I have in the past had 3 or 4 companies come at me waving $10 million looking for a deal. That was about 4 or 5 years ago.

So your $2 million or so is low.

There were various reasons I will not go into why a deal couldn't be accomplished. But I'd say at this point $10 to $50 million to get to the next stage is probably not a problem.

It is obvious you will not do it because you have the biggest stumbling block ever invented in your way. You think it can't be done. It WILL be done by some one who thinks it can be done.

I will find a way or make one.

mvanwink5
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Re: A Sequel to The Google Talk

Postby mvanwink5 » Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:57 pm

GT, I haven't heard EMC2's business proposal yet and as far as I can tell neither has anyone else who has spelled out what it actually is. If I am mistaken and you are not claiming that the business plan is to go right to the $300M machine but only speaking hypothetically then I am just showing once again how poor my reading and understanding skills are (no news to me if so, therefore no shock there).

Hypothetically, I think EMC2 would need a stronger case than presented to jump to the big $300M machine and would expect a staged investment instead with the upfront understanding of what the full scale proof would cost (which is just like General Fusion's business deal).

Having said that, it is important to know where this device is heading and that IS what Park gave us when he said $300M and 3 years. It is actually 1/3 of General Fusion's prototype and that project is fully funded... in stages as that is the way these things are done.

Let us know, though, if anyone actually knows the details of EMC2 business proposals and will tell us what those are. :D
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

D Tibbets
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Re: A Sequel to The Google Talk

Postby D Tibbets » Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:26 pm

To error is human... and I'm very human.

GIThruster
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Re: A Sequel to The Google Talk

Postby GIThruster » Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:47 pm

Last edited by GIThruster on Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Courage is not just a virtue, but the form of every virtue at the testing point." C. S. Lewis

D Tibbets
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Re: A Sequel to The Google Talk

Postby D Tibbets » Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:50 pm

PS: In this machine, with the plasma gun delivering a cloud of particles at ~ 10 eV average temperature, much and perhaps most of the hydrogen would be ionized, or not. The carbon would only be partially ionized at best. Thus the calculation of charged particles would be complex. Some carbons may have charges of 0, +1, +2, or even -1, etc. I believe the energy/ temperature where 50% (?) of hydrogen is ionized is 11 eV, so a minority of the hydrogen may have actually been ionized. Most of the atomized carbon and hydrogen was possibly a neutral gas. The neutral gas would not interact with the magnetic fields, but would register as pressure when measured with a thermocouple or other common vacuum gauges. Laser interferometry measures density of plasma and neutral gas. Or does it only detect the ionized gas?
So, how accurate is the measurement of the electristatic pressure in the machine? Was it measured or calculated? How much uncertainty is reasonable?

DanTibbets
To error is human... and I'm very human.

MSimon
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Re: A Sequel to The Google Talk

Postby MSimon » Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:57 pm


Tom Ligon
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Re: A Sequel to The Google Talk

Postby Tom Ligon » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:36 pm

Back in 2007, money was coming to me looking to invest in EMC2, because Bussard had been under embargo for so long they didn't know how to contact him. All I could do was get them in touch, which I did. And then I didn't ask questions because I got the impression that would be unwelcome. I do know that RWB was not happy with some of the terms offered. But it is quite true that VC would usually rather let somebody else fund the risky up-front part, and when the Navy stepped up to fund the restart, I guess they were happy enough with that.

The restart got in fresh blood, Nebel and Park, for an honest attempt to see if Bussard's ideas were valid and his results (which totaled about ten neutron counts) real. This was sorely needed. In my opinion, the last phase did what it was supposed to do, with quality work that (like the first 10,000 of Edison's light bulb filaments) showed what not to do, and then how to actually get high beta.

I hope, looking at the discussions above, you guys now fully get just how Big a Deal this beta = 1 thing is. Its been theorized about for decades, but now finally demonstrated. It was not relevant to tokamaks because they can't hold it that condition. But knowing Grad was right and it can be done makes cusp confinement worth looking at again. Polywell is the cuspiest of the lot.

A recession has come and, at least as far as Wall Street seems to think, gone. I don't know if those same investors are out there, but I must believe there are people sufficiently interested. It would be depressing to think US business people have the same problem as the NE Pats did a couple of weeks ago.

GIThruster
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Re: A Sequel to The Google Talk

Postby GIThruster » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:56 pm

"Courage is not just a virtue, but the form of every virtue at the testing point." C. S. Lewis

MSimon
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Re: A Sequel to The Google Talk

Postby MSimon » Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:14 pm


paperburn1
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Re: A Sequel to The Google Talk

Postby paperburn1 » Sun Feb 01, 2015 1:24 am

I'm about to show my ignorance here so be kind, so far every configuration of Polywell I've seen has been equal sided. My question is would be possible to have a Polywell configuration that is not equal sided to perhaps allow for a site for the ion injection. Just a random thought going through my head
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

mvanwink5
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Re: A Sequel to The Google Talk

Postby mvanwink5 » Sun Feb 01, 2015 1:54 am

This is an old project with a critical breakthrough and with a lot of physics and data already, in an industry the VC's have been boring billions just trying to break into. If there is a even a chance, which this goes way beyond, there will be a match made, bungled approaches won't be the issue.

The problems with solar and wind are huge (incomparable) compared to the problems of EMC2 going forward. I'm still a bit surprised the Navy has kicked the can to someone else, especially at this point of development. Of course, once it is developed the Chinese will immediately have it free of charge by simple hacking. :lol:
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

choff
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Re: A Sequel to The Google Talk

Postby choff » Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:25 am

Hopefully Dr. Park can publish in a major science journal soon, stir up a lot of controversy in the fusion community and force the right people in government to get involved. That would probably get more VC people interested.
CHoff

crowberry
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Re: A Sequel to The Google Talk

Postby crowberry » Sun Feb 01, 2015 8:00 am

The slides as shown in the Microsoft talk are available as a PDF (including duplicate pages were Dr Park is going back and forth in the presentation).

D Tibbets
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Re: A Sequel to The Google Talk

Postby D Tibbets » Sun Feb 01, 2015 8:32 am

To error is human... and I'm very human.


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