Iran

Consider specific people in the fusion research community, business, or politics who should be made aware of polywell research, and how we might reach them.

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Nanos
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Postby Nanos » Tue Dec 18, 2007 11:11 pm

Funny how once North Korea became nuclear, everyones leaving it alone..

doug l
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Jerry Pounelle; looking for info

Postby doug l » Tue Jan 22, 2008 3:14 am

I caught this today on Jerry Pounelle's "Chaos Manor".

Thursday, January 10, 2008
Have you seen Dr Bussard's work on inertial electric fusion? If not read these links, the future is about to change to non-carbon based fuel sooner than most think. An incredible skunk works story! RIP Dr Bussard, what a legacy!

Video http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... 6673788606 Paper http://www.askmar.com/ConferenceNotes/S ... uclear.pdf

Thank you,

Bob Petersen

Bob Bussard was an old friend, and I much admired him as well as appreciated the friendship. I miss him.

I don't know enough about his fusion studies; my last venture into learning about inertial confinement was years ago at Sandia, then a series of interviews with the fusion research people at Los Alamos. I didn't come away encouraged that they could make neutrons; it looked as if there were brute force ways to get better than even on energy balance, but I haven't followed the research since.

I'd appreciate some words from someone who has been closer to Doc Bussard's latest work; we hadn't seen each other for a couple of years. Brilliant man, and I hope it works, but I don't know enough to have a good opinion.

========


If someone with better explanatory ability than mine would fill in Dr Pounelle on the recent theoretical, technical and other aspects, I suspect it would pay-off in future consideration with his readership.

scareduck
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Postby scareduck » Tue Jan 22, 2008 3:36 am

Bussard's polywell design already came up here:

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/archives2 ... il458.html

Tom Ligon posted some good links. Whether Pournelle actually read them I don't know, but I suspect he did.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Tue Jan 22, 2008 4:58 am

Nanos wrote:Funny how once North Korea became nuclear, everyones leaving it alone..


People were leaving them alone before they had nukes.

It is pretty simple. Neither South Korea nor China wants to deal with tens of millions on the verge of starvation.

All they had to do to keep other governments at bay was to starve their people to death.

Now they have nukes and a starving population.

Communism kills quickly. Socialism takes a little longer.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

JD
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Postby JD » Tue Jan 22, 2008 5:40 am

MSimon wrote:
Nanos wrote:Funny how once North Korea became nuclear, everyones leaving it alone..


People were leaving them alone before they had nukes.

It is pretty simple. Neither South Korea nor China wants to deal with tens of millions on the verge of starvation.

All they had to do to keep other governments at bay was to starve their people to death.

Now they have nukes and a starving population.

Communism kills quickly. Socialism takes a little longer.


If I might add there's a very important practical reason they've been left alone for the last few decades. They posses well over 10000 artillery weapons of various size, a good percentage of which can range a large portion of the S Korean capital of Seoul and mostly pre -positioned along the DMZ. These weapons range from various size mortars up to 160mm in size, numerous old but useable howitzers, rocket launchers and tactical missile systems. They even have locally made long range guns. Not spoken of in all the nuclear angst is the probably still extensive stockpiles of various chemical shells ranging from old style blood agent through mustard, nerve and that old Soviet favorite phosgene. Basically up to and exceeding 2 million civilians, living mostly in high density housing areas, are hostages.

Any attempt to step on the NK's necks would result in massive civilian casualties. We could not destroy these weapons along the DMZ fast enough to prevent it without using tactical fission weapons. That is the primary reason there's not been an attempt at removing the Northern threat since the severance of support from the old Soviet empire.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Tue Jan 22, 2008 8:37 am

Most of those tubes have been poorly maintained.

They are good for 1 shot if that. Then the war is over.

Ammunition gets old. Has any of it been replaced?

In 1960 that stuff was scary. In 2008? Give me a break. The people are eating grass. The Army gets food - but early childhood malnutrition has stunted their brains and bodies.

Best to let them decay quietly for another 50 years. When most of the population is dead then it may be worth it to rescue the remainder.

It sux. Life is hard. Life under socialism is harder.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

doug l
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TM3X

Postby doug l » Tue Jan 22, 2008 5:24 pm

Thanks, Scareduck

Dr Pournelle's greatest strength these days is in his rock solid connection with fundamentals and the classics, and so is his understanding of fusion.

I know he read it but it evidently hasn't stuck.

I know he's mentioned that he's a strong proponent of systems which incorporate the "tell me three times" principle..TM3X

I know as I become older that seems like a more worthwhile strategy than ever before.

Cheers.

JD
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Postby JD » Tue Jan 22, 2008 7:47 pm

MSimon wrote:Most of those tubes have been poorly maintained.

They are good for 1 shot if that. Then the war is over.

Ammunition gets old. Has any of it been replaced?

In 1960 that stuff was scary. In 2008? Give me a break. The people are eating grass. The Army gets food - but early childhood malnutrition has stunted their brains and bodies.

Best to let them decay quietly for another 50 years. When most of the population is dead then it may be worth it to rescue the remainder.

It sux. Life is hard. Life under socialism is harder.


Simply pointing out the reason. They have degraded and they are ready to implode. The weapons are old (mostly but not all) but will still throw projectiles. I've fired ammo that was at least 45 years old before and this was under US quality control standards. If you're command structure doesn't care about a higher dud rate or deteriorated HE fill occasionally being shock detonated when fired then those stockpiles are good for many decades (propellants are less stable but much cheaper to replace). Don't forget that even with a screwed up economy they still manufacture munitions, hell they're one of the few countries on earth (six I think) that can produce an entire main battle tank (modified clone of a Chinese type 59 last I heard).

My own assessment, the NK's lost any potential of winning or even stalemating if they attacked arond '87~'89. Even with a deteriorating military they still pose the threat of massive civilian casualties and infrastructure damage to the South. If they were the attacker then civilian casualties would be far lower due to most combat power being centered on breaking the South's first line of defense just below the DMZ (it used to be called FEBA ALPHA by us, don't know if they changed the name). If we attacked they would simply fire on civilian population centers.

So as you've said, we've been letting them rot on the vine. That's been the only real option for the last two decades though hopefully it will come to an end within the next couple of years. Whether or not they have nuclear capability doesn't really enter into the situation except in their potential to export it. It can't get to much worse there. Even the most brain washed suppressed serf will rebel when the situation becomes desperate enough. Afterwards it will take at least two generations to alleviate what has happened to that society.

I'm getting maudlin now and this is very off topic so I'll shut up.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Thu Mar 27, 2008 1:04 pm

Why isn't Iran with all that oil money going for long term research projects like Polywell or ITER?


Limited military potential? Not a sure thing?

BTW the NK lights map is good. However, a regular map would be helpful in figuring out what the million points of light map means. A small map would be sufficient.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

TallDave
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Postby TallDave » Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:43 pm

Nanos wrote:Funny how once North Korea became nuclear, everyones leaving it alone..


Actually, they already had a deterrent: they have enough conventional artillery pointed at Seoul to obliterate it in a matter of hours.

That's why they've been left alone for 50 years. Well, that and China and the fact no one wants their crappy broken country.

TallDave
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Postby TallDave » Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:45 pm

This map has the boundaries marked:

http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/2007/1 ... dark-half/

The Seoul metro area is the big splotch. IIRC it's one of the top five largest population concentrations in the world.

The little dot on the north side is of course Pyongyang.

TallDave
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Postby TallDave » Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:48 pm

Ah, it was right in the link:

Economic hardship in the officially ‘self-reliant’ North has led to mass starvation, while the South has a vibrant economy able to compete with the best of the world. In 1996, the per capita GNP in the North was $920, while it was $11.270 in the South. A 1999 estimate of per capita GNPs put the South’s at 13 times that of the North. More recent figures will probably show an even wider gap.

Due to the different economic results on either side of the Demilitarized Zone, the ethnically quite homogenous Koreans have even begun to diversify physically, with the average North Korean male almost 7 cm shorter than his Southern counterpart (165,6 cm vs. 172,5 cm). North Korean females are on average 4 cm shorter than Southern women (154,9 cm vs. 159,1 cm). By 2025, the height difference is projected to increase to 11 cm for men, 6 cm for women. Unless the North’s economic situation changes drastically, that is.

So the South dwarfs the North, not just numerically (50 vs. 27 million), but also economically and even size-wise. Another stark reminder of the different worlds both Koreas now inhabit, is this map, a picture of the night-time illumination on the Korean peninsula.

The metropolitan area of Seoul, the South’s capital, holds 23 million people and is the second-largest conurbation on the planet (after Tokyo). Its huge lit-up area, close to the border with the North, is clearly visible from space. Other Southern cities, while quite a lot smaller than Seoul, are also clearly distinguishable on this satellite map, for example Gunsan on the western coast, directly below it the inland city of Gwangju, the cities of Masan and Busan on the southern coast, and several other cities, much smaller still.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Fri Mar 28, 2008 9:17 am

I have seen some recent reports that there is no longer enough food in the North for government officials. Peasants are too weak to farm.

They are on a downward spiral. Rapidly approaching terminal. I have seen estimates that say that the North has 6 months to a couple of years to go before total collapse.

This will be a huge problem dwarfing the East German problem when the Soviet Union collapsed. At least the East Germans were still eating.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

TallDave
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Postby TallDave » Fri Mar 28, 2008 5:13 pm

Unfortunately, it may not matter. Either China or the West will send them enough food and fuel to keep people from starving. The regime will then apportionthem out on the basis of loyalty.

That could go on forever.


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