Waist deep in AGW

[bcglorf]

Josh, whose data is that? What is its origin/provenance?

I found one source here on the University of Alabama in Huntsville's 'DISCOVER' website.

[mad_derek]

Josh,

I don't know where you got this graph, but, why would the 'Global' average temperature rise during the Northern hemisphere's summer (and not the Southern summer)?

Lovely. "Science" at its worse!

We should come up with *good questions* for AGW scientists, like; "Where, on earth, is the global average temperature rise the highest?" or "is it true that 50% of all temperature data indicates a lower rise of average temperature than actually claimed?" and then leave on "simmer" to cook.

Chris, I assume that's addressed to me.

Underlying the immediate question is another: how is that 'Global' average arrived at. You suggest *good questions*. I would point out that the average global temperature is just that: an average for the globe. The average temperature change (whether rise or fall) at any particular location on the globe is a component of the 'Global' average.

MSimon points out that there is a greater landmass in the Northern hemisphere - I did wonder whether e.g. that resulted in a greater quantity of Northern temperature data being included in the 'Global' average and whether that average was being calculated correctly. I don't know, hence my question as to the source of the data.

[MSimon]

Global average might have some meaning in a stable/equilibrium system.

It makes no sense in a case where a 1% increase in temperature causes a 4% increase in radiation.

[mad_derek]

Global average might have some meaning in a stable/equilibrium system.

No ... Global average might have some meaning if we knew how it was calculated and had some confidence in it.

It makes no sense in a case where a 1% increase in temperature causes a 4% increase in radiation.

Not sure where you're going here. Where does that statistic come from? or is it someone else's assertion?

[MSimon]

Global average might have some meaning in a stable/equilibrium system.

No ... Global average might have some meaning if we knew how it was calculated and had some confidence in it.

It makes no sense in a case where a 1% increase in temperature causes a 4% increase in radiation.

Not sure where you're going here. Where does that statistic come from? or is it someone else's assertion?

Radiation goes as T^4. (1.01)^4 ~= 1.04

[mad_derek]

Global average might have some meaning in a stable/equilibrium system.

No ... Global average might have some meaning if we knew how it was calculated and had some confidence in it.

It makes no sense in a case where a 1% increase in temperature causes a 4% increase in radiation.

Not sure where you're going here. Where does that statistic come from? or is it someone else's assertion?

Radiation goes as T^4. (1.01)^4 ~= 1.04

Sorry, yes, outbound radiation. I thought that might be it, but isn't that where we end up going full circle and start arguing about greenhouse gases?

[Heath_h49008]

Come now, at least we aren't still fighting about CFCs and the chemistry of ozone depletion by heavier than air substances. Odd how that seems to have evaporated as an issue. Dupont must not have a new patented chemical it needs to sell for refrigeration.

[mad_derek]

Come now, at least we aren't still fighting about CFCs and the chemistry of ozone depletion by heavier than air substances. Odd how that seems to have evaporated as an issue. Dupont must not have a new patented chemical it needs to sell for refrigeration.

Yes, well ... last time we changed refrigerants as a result of scientific advice. Now the scientific advice is that the replacement refrigerant is worse as a greenhouse gas than the previous set. Not doing anything until we are sure appears to be the better option ...

[Heath_h49008]

Just wait. A major player with a good patent will fund another "Chicken Little-esque" environmental uproar, and the politicians will ride the funding and votes to make it law.

Greenhouse gasses and Carbon Credits may be on their way out, but I have faith in human nature and purchasable science/activists/politicians. It will soon be replaced by something that will end the world.

Do you attempt to educate the world? Or do you invest in the fear and shrug all the way to the bank?

[Josh Cryer]

bcglorf, thanks for sourcing the link, should have provided a source, sorry for any confusions here, guys. I got the original link from Motl so I assumed everyone here knew about it.


KitemanSA, think carefully about what you are saying. MSimon is right.



Southern hemisphere winters do not affect the albedo of the planet effectively, at all.


Meanwhile, it's 50 degrees in Greenland right now (5:30AM there): http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/04270.html

Here's a local story from that town: http://sermitsiaq.gl/klima/article110047.ece?lang=EN

50 degrees as of the time of this posting guys, in Greenland. In the middle of winter.

I expect the UAH graph to continue upward (though it should have a small 'nick' in the graph due to the cold snap). It would be much much warmer if UAH did not have to extrapolate for the Arctic/Antarctic areas.

[bcglorf]

50 degrees as of the time of this posting guys, in Greenland. In the middle of winter.

And my parents that flew down from Canada to enjoy the warmer winter in Florida are down to 31F, with a chance of snow. Weather does not equal climate.

[doug l]

Can you be specific as to where in Greenland? Is that within the marine layer on the southern coast or up in the interior on the ice-cap?

[bcglorf]

Here's a local story from that town: http://sermitsiaq.gl/klima/article110047.ece?lang=EN

The local story for the town notes that the average temperature there this January was 0.1C, up from the normal average of -5.5C. I'm in central Canada and the normal January average is -18C. I never realized just how much warmer Southern Greenland was, I gotta move.

[doug l]

Wow...That seems remarkable. I just checked your weatherunderground link. While that is within reach of the Marine layer and at the head of a presumably deep water fjord in the Southwestern coastal region of Greenland, the almanac says the January average high is 27...and the forecast is calling for more. Thanks for the heads up.

[MSimon]

Atomic testing is changing the weather patterns. Florida cold. Greenland hot. It is unnatural.

We need to shut down the LHC before it does more damage.

No snow in Vancouver. Too much (well just enough actually to shut it down) in DC. I see some advantage here.