Pearl Harbor ? A well used literary tool

[MSimon]

Our dive-bombers happened to catch the Japanese carriers refueling/rearming, with their bombs and fuel exposed on the decks of their carriers.

Actually that was the American Navy plan. And due to the trouble finding the Jap carriers the plan was within minutes of failing. The Jap aircraft were within minutes of taking off. And had the Japanese not spent time rearming their aircraft they would have been gone by the time the Americans got there.

The timing of the American launch was expressly timed to catch the Jap carriers with aircraft on deck.

And due to the late American strike ALL the Jap aircraft were on deck. Fully armed. All gassed up.

The Americans got lucky. The string of Japanese luck that ran for 6 months ran out.

[djolds1]

Defending the West coast in that scenario is no problem.

No. You can't defend anything with a potential warmaking capability.

Big page. Scroll down.

Aircraft Production
United States 1942 47,836
Japan 1942 8,861

Anyways, productive capacity often falls to tactical superiority. You could have used this same reasoning to determine that the Persian invasion of Greece would inevitably prevail.

The American philosophy of war DID prevail in the war in question Dave. In both theatres.

"Get there the fustest with the mostest."

The Wehrmacht thought it VERY unmanly, how we simply pounded them into chunky red salsa with howitzer shells instead of fighting mano a mano. Boo hoo.

Some aircraft get diverted from Europe. So what?

Heh. Do you have any idea what the logistical challenges of defending the entire West Coast would entail?

Yes. You see, we did that on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

And if we lost the West Coast, a big chunk of that productive capacity could have been damaged or even in Japanese hands. Unlikely, but far from impossible.

Beyond impossible. The IJN did not have the assets to invade. A raid or two, maybe, but those fleet assets will not be going home to Hajirajima.

"Grim Economic Realities" plays out an alternate Midway by the numbers. I would suggest you read more than just Table #1. The US was not in any danger, even had it lost the entire fleet at Midway. The Imperial Japanese slit their bellies open at Pearl.

Yes, it's very likely we would have prevailed in a protracted war regardless of what happened at Midway. But the Japanese knew that and their strategy was built around avoiding a protracted war. Had we lost at Midway, we could have been under tremendous pressure to negotiate an end to the conflict on terms favorable to the Japanese.

Anachronistic. You're projecting the touchy feely way we think today onto our ancestors. WW2 in the Pacific was a war of racial blood vengeance, and the Japanese are VERY lucky they were not made extinct as a culture.

The United States of WW2 was NOT going to fold. Certainly not in the first 6 months of the war.

Duane

[MSimon]

Duane,

A month by month evaluation of aircraft inventory would give a better picture.

And don't forget the Europe First policy agreed to by the allies. In addition also consider that an undeclared war with Germany was going on since the late summer of 1941 in order to keep the Brits supplied.

And then there was the Torch build up.

And then there was the German 88. The best dual purpose weapon of its kind during the war. What made the US arty more effective was the ability to do time on target firing - organization and communication.

[djolds1]

Duane,

A month by month evaluation of aircraft inventory would give a better picture.

True. I don't have access to that. But even assuming 25% of production in the first half of 1942, 75% in the second half, that's still ~12,000 new build aircraft on hand. Plenty for muscular air power patrols on the West coast.

And don't forget the Europe First policy agreed to by the allies. In addition also consider that an undeclared war with Germany was going on since the late summer of 1941 in order to keep the Brits supplied.

And then there was the Torch build up.

Domestic politics would control. Assuming the USN Midway fleet is destroyed, in this ATL (alternate time line) matters change. Torch might be delayed. For a month or two. Maybe.

Duane