Eat that GW believers!

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taniwha
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Post by taniwha »

I do think you should look at the IR absorption profile of CO2 in your handy Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, dear sir. High school science teachers (the fun kind) can put up an IR camera with a candle on the other side of a glass container, full of oxygen and nitrogen, and show that when CO2 is pumped into the vessel, the IR from the candle is absorbed, and no longer visible on the camera view screen. This is something high school children can understand and visualize. To deny it is to deny yourself knowledge.
(my bolding)

Pumped into? That implies 100s of thousands of ppm, a far cry from the current 380(?) or even the extreme 7000 quoted elsewhere.

Nobody was denying that CO2 absorbs IR, only the levels of absorption. I think it's your sense of proportion that has the biggest troubles.

I remember when my grade 4 teacher was trying to demonstrate that the atmosphere was 20%, and every time he got results showing near 100%. He was pumping oxygen into the container. (to give him credit, he figured out his mistake after the second attempt. of course, none of us kids would have).

Josh Cryer
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Post by Josh Cryer »

Perhaps you should consider the difference between mass loss and area increase.
Science is what we have learned about how not to fool ourselves about the way the world is.

Luzr
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Post by Luzr »

Josh Cryer wrote:Perhaps you should consider the difference between mass loss and area increase.
Fair enough. OTOH, area anomaly is metrics used for arctic too.

TallDave
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Post by TallDave »

Josh,

Again, your replies are full of basic misstatements of fact, namecalling, attribution of strawman arguments to your opponents (no one argues for a "conspiracy" just a lot of like-minded people finding what they want to find) and wildly unscientific statements (a continuation of the small real warming trend into next decade proves nothing).
We're not doing anything about it!
There are no efforts to limit carbon emissions? Try to make some effort to be sensible.
In any case, the melting that is occurring is massive, beyond all models, therefore it should at least concern you.
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/a ... /5818/1529
East Antarctica is a cold region with a ground base above sea level and occupies most of the continent. This area is dominated by small accumulations of snowfall which becomes ice and thus eventually seaward glacial flows. The mass balance of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet as a whole is thought to be slightly positive (lowering sea level) or near to balance
Given that the models are worthless and sea levels are not rising dramatically, there's no reason for alarm.
You're defending the advocates, the priests, the anti-scientists. We're defending the scientists.
...
You're defending bloggers and shills.
The shills are the people you're defending. They have far less interest in science than in advocacy.

If you can't even bother to understand Darwin Zero, you think satellites are "disinformation," and you think not releasing algorithms is fine because they released a paper, then you don't meet the minimal level of intelligence needed to discuss the topic rationally. Sorry.

Come back when you understand this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method

Among other facets shared by the various fields of inquiry is the conviction that the process be objective to reduce biased interpretations of the results. Another basic expectation is to document, archive and share all data and methodology so they are available for careful scrutiny by other scientists, thereby allowing other researchers the opportunity to verify results by attempting to reproduce them. This practice, called full disclosure, also allows statistical measures of the reliability of these data to be established.
Last edited by TallDave on Wed Dec 23, 2009 2:16 pm, edited 4 times in total.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Hansen is the most liberal / crazy / dire predictor, and he calls for coal phaseout. That is the biggest plan I know of. Anyone calling for more is not credible (or insignificant on the scheme of things).
So he is in the pay of the oil and natural gas cartels. Or maybe the nuclear cartel.

Edison used similar tricks against Tesla.

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2007/12/roots.html

It is amusing how people still fall for these political tricks.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

alexjrgreen
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Post by alexjrgreen »

It doesn't make any sense to be limited to one source of energy. You get lower prices and better strategic security if you have a choice.

Since the US is sitting on substantial coal and oil reserves, it makes sense to be able to burn them cleanly and sequester the carbon dioxide, if you need to, economically. You also want to have access to clean, economical sources of Solar and Wind energy, and to Fission and Fusion.

Allowing one cartel or another to gain a monopoly is going to end in tears.
Ars artis est celare artem.

TallDave
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Post by TallDave »

When they then configure long term proxy data of the last 2K years and configure it against the adjusted data, they STILL manage to end up with error bars smaller than the adjustments made to the original instrumental data. And since the proxy doesn't show the last 100 years warming like the instrumental record has, they just stop graphing it after 1900 and graph ONLY the instrumental data. Seeing a pattern here? Oh, and better still they claim the agreement between all these different approaches as independent verification for their methods, and that we must act NOW and spend billions combating CO2 emissions.
And the GCMs are then "validated" against this mess. GIGO.

That's one reason why forecasting scientists (who have studied various kinds of forecasting for decades) found the GCMs violate 72 basic principles of forecasting, and that there is "no scientific basis" for forecasting the climate with these models.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/28/f ... g-climate/

If the IPCC were minimally honest, we would at least get giant error bars around the GCM predictions. Instead, we're told they're "90% certain." This is what happens when ideology trumps science.

Meanwhile, prominent AGWers like Gore and IPCC head Pachauri have huge investments directly dependent on selling AGW.

seedload
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Post by seedload »

Josh Cryer wrote:High school science teachers (the fun kind) can put up an IR camera with a candle on the other side of a glass container, full of oxygen and nitrogen, and show that when CO2 is pumped into the vessel, the IR from the candle is absorbed, and no longer visible on the camera view screen.
Josh, it almost sounds like you are making the saturated CO2 argument. Since the IR is completely blocked, I guess it doesn't matter how much more CO2 we pump in by your experiment above.
Josh Cryer wrote:This is something high school children can understand and visualize. To deny it is to deny yourself knowledge.
Who is denying it? You are like making some stuff up now. I am pretty sure that IntLibber was talking about the radiative effects of CO2 on a bit grander scale than you little high school dome. Like in the atmosphere where saturation was assumed for a very long time.

Jccarlton
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Post by Jccarlton »

Dropping rocks into science:
http://ajacksonian.blogspot.com/2009/12 ... ution.html

This is an excellent piece on how real science happens. Make extraordinary claims and back it up with repeatable and redundant data.

The indictment of AGW is telling when a real scientist does it.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Allowing one cartel or another to gain a monopoly is going to end in tears.
Yes. And CO2 sequestration will price coal out of the market. Good for the nuclear, wind, and solar guys though.

Follow the money.

Fortunately I have advocated that the Polywell Community not make a big deal out of Global Warming because I have always thought that the science was weak. And for the most part the Community has taken the advice.

The danger being that if Global Warming proves false it would be very bad to have Polywell tied to that whale.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

BTW the problem with CO2 sequestration is that no one wants the sequestered CO2 in their back yard.

What happens if there is an industrial accident and massive amounts of CO2 are released? When it happens in Africa (naturally) people die.

As far as I can tell the only method of CO2 sequestration people are comfortable with is trees.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Josh Cryer
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Post by Josh Cryer »

taniwha, the point isn't that a lab experiment with a candle is even a remote analog of what's happening in reality, the point is that CO2 is easily shown to be an absorber of IR that anyone can understand. Granted, I may have been responding to something that IntLibber didn't imply, which I apologize for. That reply was at 2AM.




TallDave, going in circles now, my man.

I'm going to relink the Economist article for this new page (won't hurt the 22k Google results for Darwin Zero!): http://www.economist.com/blogs/democrac ... scientists




MSimon,
So he is in the pay of the oil and natural gas cartels. Or maybe the nuclear cartel.
Nah, Hansen is old hat ("father of AGW"). He's not in the pockets of anyone as far as I understand, unless we're going to throw NASA under the bus (and remember, I spent years defending NASA against alien crazies, so, yeah). He always does have the highest figures of anyone, though, and was responsible for predicting sea ice losses that no one thought were possible at this stage (IPCC AR4 was too "uncertain" to make any statements about dynamical ice flow, it was outdated the day it was published).

Hansen, much to the dismay of many environmentalists, has come out in support of nuclear, particularly third generation (Thorium for example). And he actually supported McCain until he picked Palin.

The coal phaseout idea he's pushing is more because, I believe, he's getting old and he's just not giving a shit (he got a lot of flack for saying scientists should get political a few years back). You read his essays about his grandchildren and it's clear the guy doesn't want them to inherit a screwed up world, and he sees the science as accurate.
Yes. And CO2 sequestration will price coal out of the market. Good for the nuclear, wind, and solar guys though.
I believe in economic isolationism. We need to be able to use our own resources for energy, so I could care less if we got rid of fossil on other grounds. And I personally think that banning CO2 in some way or requiring it to be sequestered with coal would make nuclear very competitive (and I believe that's one reason that many environmentalists like the failure that is cap and trade rather than a CO2 tax or ban, because it means nuclear is quite viable and it means we move to clean energy more quickly; instead the cap and trade envisioned by the Senate will be a long drawn out process that will bring us to 450-550 ppm long before anything is done).
As far as I can tell the only method of CO2 sequestration people are comfortable with is trees.
Hansen wants to bring us back down to 280. His method? Trees (and of course the whole coal phaseout thing). :)





seedload, nah, I was merely making a statement on the understanding that we know that CO2 is an IR absorber, and we know that for certain. The absorption profile is in the Handbook of Chemistry and physics. They use it in the models, they don't just glean it from bigger observations, the models are pure physics, generalized of course since computers can't run them.
I am pretty sure that IntLibber was talking about the radiative effects of CO2 on a bit grander scale than you little high school dome.
Fair enough, but it seemed as if he was throwing out the radiative forcing of CO2 in its entirity. I apologize if I mischaracterized.
Science is what we have learned about how not to fool ourselves about the way the world is.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Josh says:
BTW, all of your questions, especially the sailor one? You must have read them from a list somewhere.
Josh. There you go again impugning my integrity.

So let me give it to you straight. The things I mentioned I have ACTUALLY STUDIED to the best of my ability.

But I understand projection. Maybe it is you who are reading from lists.

I advocate open science openly done. Release all data. Starting with station records. Then adjusted station records. Then data ensembles. Then all the transformations required to get from raw data to the data ensembles. Then we look at all the models and all the parameterizations used in the models. Check them against data.

Of course with funding dependent on ever more dire predictions it will be hard to get honest science done.

BTW in the science experiment did the experimenter saturate the container with water vapor? You know as a cross check against confounding variables in the real system?
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Nah, Hansen is old hat ("father of AGW"). He's not in the pockets of anyone as far as I understand,
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You are hilarious.

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/200 ... ansen.html

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/200 ... ading.html

BTW I set you up and you fell for it. Easy to do when you are a believer.

Start with this premise: the whole field of climate science with very few exceptions is corrupt to the core. Then go looking for the corruption. You will note I found Hansen's double dealing in 2007. It is now two years later and the nictitating membranes are still covering your eyes.

But let me explain Hansen with the money quote from the above links.
Note that Enron was a major broker of natural gas.
Coal bad. Natural gas good.

When doing science the person most easily fooled is yourself. Any belief will bias your search for the truth (or as close an approximation as is possible). Engineers get disabused of that sort of thinking by having to solve real problems in real time. I can't tell you how many times when I was SURE of the cause of the problem I was lead astray. These days I tend to gather more data and look for causes outside my normal frame of reference.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

BTW, all of your questions, especially the sailor one?
And Josh. I think I put 20 or 30 hours into that one and was rather active in the discussion of the subject at Climate Audit.

And "gun decking" the records? I have actually done it. Not for climate data. But it is so common in the Navy that they actually have a term for it.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

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