X-Prize Foundation

[Solo]

I think the X-Prize for suborbital tourism should demonstrate that these sort of things don't necessarily get what they want accomplished. They seem to just bend the trajectories of existing organizations working on a problem, not creating much new.

The other issue is, look at SS1. That ship can't be scaled up to go into orbit. I'm afraid an analogus situation will happen with a fusion prize: someone will go make the fusor from hell to win the prize, but their work will all be wasted on a dead end, because the fusor can't be a successful technology in the long run.

[Helius]

I think the X-Prize for suborbital tourism should demonstrate that these sort of things don't necessarily get what they want accomplished. They seem to just bend the trajectories of existing organizations working on a problem, not creating much new.

The other issue is, look at SS1. That ship can't be scaled up to go into orbit. I'm afraid an analogus situation will happen with a fusion prize: someone will go make the fusor from hell to win the prize, but their work will all be wasted on a dead end, because the fusor can't be a successful technology in the long run.

The Ansari $10M X prize wasn't for suborbital tourism; It was to achieve the goal of flying the weight of 2 passengers to an altitude of 100 Kilometers, and do it again within 2 weeks. The X prize in this case, was a resounding success.

In a similar vein, if someone makes "the fusor from hell" that pushes the envelope beyond anything that has been done before, then I want to know all about it. An X Prize for an IEC device with Q>0.02 would capture a *lot* of positive attention and goodwill.

[JoeStrout]

I think the X-Prize for suborbital tourism should demonstrate that these sort of things don't necessarily get what they want accomplished. They seem to just bend the trajectories of existing organizations working on a problem, not creating much new.

Your words don't seem (to me) to make any sense. The X-Prize absolutely, resoundingly, unquestioningly did achieve exactly what they wanted to accomplish. The parties involved, from Diamandis on down, are all thrilled with how it pretty much single-handedly jump-started a suborbital tourism industry. In ten years we'll have orders of magnitude more people in space on commercial carriers than have ever gone there as government employees. And ten years or less after that, I predict that some of those commercial carriers will be taking people all the way to orbit. All this after 40 years of stagnation. Sure, it would have happened eventually anyway, but it might have taken a lot longer — the whole space industry was stuck in a deep rut, and it took the X-Prize and Scale Composites to give it the kick in the pants it needed to get moving again. (And in the process, they created several things quite new.)

The other issue is, look at SS1. That ship can't be scaled up to go into orbit.

Says you, but I don't believe you actually know. I don't believe I actually know, either, but I'm more optimistic about it for several reasons. First, I can think of ways that that ship could be scaled up to be an important component of an orbital system (say, by using a rotovator for the upper leg). Second, because in a documentary about the X-Prize, the camera catches Burt Rutan with something on his screen that looks vaguely like an SS1, but isn't — and Burt with a big knowing grin on his face. He wouldn't say what it was, but in the same documentary he plainly admits that suborbital is only a stepping stone and his real goal is orbit.

So, I will be greatly surprised if SS1 turns out to be a dead end and not just (!) a profitable step on the path to reliable, profitable ground-to-orbit passenger service.

Best,
— Joe

[fusionfan]

Does anyone have any updates on prize foundations or VC people interested in Polywell?

[MSimon]

Does anyone have any updates on prize foundations or VC people interested in Polywell?

I'm in the beginning stages of starting a foundation. I have some good people on board already as potential advisers/board members. What I need now is $$.

Once the money is in hand a formal organization will be set up. That is as much as I'm going to say until someone shows me the money.

[hanelyp]

I expect anyone with money to give to a polywell foundation would be interested in the rules for management and spending of the money.

[MSimon]

I expect anyone with money to give to a polywell foundation would be interested in the rules for management and spending of the money.

You got money? Let's talk.