2014 only the hottest year on the cooked books...

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TDPerk
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2014 only the hottest year on the cooked books...

Postby TDPerk » Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:45 am

molon labe
montani semper liberi
para fides paternae patria

TDPerk
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Re: 2014 only the hottest year on the cooked books...

Postby TDPerk » Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:53 am

molon labe

montani semper liberi

para fides paternae patria

williatw
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Re: 2014 only the hottest year on the cooked books...

Postby williatw » Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:25 am

TDPerk wrote:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11561629/Top-scientists-start-to-examine-fiddled-global-warming-figures.html

Gradually, they walk back from the fraud.


I kinda beat you to it albeit not by much:

Top scientists start to examine fiddled global warming figures

The Global Warming Policy Foundation has enlisted an international team of five distinguished scientists to carry out a full inquiry


viewtopic.php?f=8&t=5828&start=30

hanelyp
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Re: 2014 only the hottest year on the cooked books...

Postby hanelyp » Mon Apr 27, 2015 4:13 am

Will it be an inquiry or a whitewash? A lot of people have a lot to lose if data manipulation is exposed.
The daylight is uncomfortably bright for eyes so long in the dark.

Diogenes
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Re: 2014 only the hottest year on the cooked books...

Postby Diogenes » Sat Jun 13, 2015 4:09 pm

Image
‘What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.’
— Lord Melbourne —

williatw
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Re: 2014 only the hottest year on the cooked books...

Postby williatw » Sun Jun 14, 2015 1:05 am

Let us see now…what is the ultimate known example of greenhouse gas warming via CO2? The planet Venus.
Venus is 67 million miles from the Sun; the Earth is 93 million. By the inverse square law: 932 /672 = 1.93. So Venus gets roughly twice the solar constant Earth gets. So I would expect it to be twice as hot. Venus surface temp averages about 900F; converted to Kelvin ((900-32)*5/9) = 482C+273.15 = 755K. Earth’s ave. temp is 287K. So Venus is 755/287 = 2.63 X hotter than earth. Or about 36% hotter than what you would expect from its closer distance to the Sun. But wait as we all know Venus has an atmosphere that is almost all CO2; and at 90atm pressure. Venus gravity at it surface is approx. 0.8 that of Earth’s; so 90/.8 = 112.5. So the mass of Venus’s atmosphere all CO2, a greenhouse gas, is approx. over a hundred times that of Earth’s; but only apparently adds about 36% higher temp over Earth’s than what you would expect just from its closer proximity to the Sun. Conclusion CO2 must be a relatively weak greenhouse gas. It would suggest we probably don't need to lose too much sleep worrying about the effect of the approx. 350ppm CO2 in our two orders of magnitude less massive total atmosphere. Also explains perhaps why my favorite Martian potential terraforming gas NF3 (Nitrogen Trifluoride) can be 17,000 times more powerful than CO2; it is because CO2 is obviously a wimpy greenhouse gas. Comments anyone?

JoeP
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Re: 2014 only the hottest year on the cooked books...

Postby JoeP » Sun Jun 14, 2015 1:39 am

williatw, that is an interesting back-of-the-envelope calculation...do you know if anyone has developed it further?

I don't remember all the details about Venus, but some of the reasons why it may be so hot could involve some other factors aside from solar input. Certainly, the much thicker and denser atmosphere will insulate a lot more than a thinner one like ours. Also, the entire surface of Venus is geologically young. This hellhole has recently been resurfaced by violent eruptions and magma. So perhaps there is also a much higher internal source of heat compared to what we see at our own crust that is still cooling off very slowly.

paperburn1
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Re: 2014 only the hottest year on the cooked books...

Postby paperburn1 » Sun Jun 14, 2015 1:40 am

I guess i am the man in the middle, I do believe our climate is changing I just do not think man is the primary cause.
Water vapor is a bigger contributor to the greenhouse gases thing in my opinion.
What to do? Well in reality it would not take much at all to fix the problem. The airline industry has a solution readily available for us today. Just a few simple additive to the fuel and the problem is solved. Hey, maybe them chem trail conspiracy people have something after all! a nice white blanket that blocks the sun from reaching earth. Or how about painting every roof white. Sounds stupid at first but it would add up to a noticeable effect.
Or everyone plant a garden. not hauling our produce from five or six location around the world to feed us would have a potential large effect.
or good ol george. In July 2012, the Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation dispersed 100 short tons (91 t) of iron sulphate dust into the Pacific Ocean several hundred miles west of the islands of Haida Gwaii. The Old Massett Village Council financed this project as a salmon enhancement project with $2.5 million in village funds.The concept was that the formerly iron-deficient waters would produce more phytoplankton that would in turn serve as a "pasture" to feed salmon. Then- CEO Russ George hoped to sell carbon offsets to recover the costs. The project was plagued by charges of unscientific procedures and recklessness. George contended that 100 tons of iron is negligible compared to what naturally enters the ocean.
The 2013 salmon runs defied all expectations, more than quadrupling, from 50 million to 226 million fish.
On 15 July 2014, the oceanographic scientific data that has been gathered during the project were made publicly available under the ODbL license
In reality it seems that nobody really wants to fix the problem just b!cht about it.
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

williatw
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Re: 2014 only the hottest year on the cooked books...

Postby williatw » Sun Jun 14, 2015 3:23 am

JoeP wrote:williatw, that is an interesting back-of-the-envelope calculation...do you know if anyone has developed it further?


It is indeed a "back-of-the-envelope calculation"...one variable I seem to recall that I didn't take into consideration is I believe that heat transfer (by radiation) is proportional to the 4th power of the temperature difference. That may account perhaps for Venus's "relative coolness" even with its' 100X times Earth's atmosphere of heat trapping CO2 . The natural tendency to just radiate the heat back into space; after all Mercury at 36M from the sun receives (67 squared/ 36 squared = about 3.5X times Venus's solar constant) and is yet cooler than Venus. No atmosphere to speak of (in the case of Mercury) heat must much more readily radiate back out into space.

hanelyp
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Re: 2014 only the hottest year on the cooked books...

Postby hanelyp » Sun Jun 14, 2015 4:38 am

I favor the adiabatic compression theory of planetary "greenhouse" effect, modified in the case of Earth by temperature dependence and other factors relating to cloud formation. Climatists are is serious denial about these theories. With regards to Venus, it's worth noting the temperature profile of the atmosphere, including temperatures where pressure is near Earth sea level normals.

A couple links relevant to adiabatic theory, http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/04/adding-to-list-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11.html https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/01/23/oleg-sorokhtin-the-adiabatic-theory-of-greenhouse-effect/

I'm not finding the link off hand, but I've seen a paper where a simple model based entirely on solar intensity and surface pressure was able to fairly match the surface temperatures of Venus, Earth, Mars, and Titan.
The daylight is uncomfortably bright for eyes so long in the dark.

paperburn1
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Re: 2014 only the hottest year on the cooked books...

Postby paperburn1 » Sun Jun 14, 2015 11:29 am

The total solar irradiance is the maximum possible power that the Sun can deliver to a planet at Earth’s average distance from the Sun and we know that The amount of heat a surface radiates is proportional to the fourth power of its temperature. If temperature doubles, radiated energy increases by a factor of 16 (2 to the 4th power).The atmosphere absorbs 23 percent of incoming sunlight while the surface absorbs 48. The atmosphere radiates heat equivalent to 59 percent of incoming sunlight; the surface radiates only 12 percent. In other words, most solar heating happens at the surface, while most radiative cooling happens in the atmosphere. (Nasa)
So my question is any of the models taking into the account the fact that earths atmosphere expands then becomes larger when heated providing a larger surface for heat to be radiated from. None of the models I have seen seem to have that included in the figures.( they may be but in the stuff I understand I do not see this)
So my questions are how much total solar irradiance must increase to warm the planet one degree?
If the atmosphere is warming it should be expanding, so what are the noticeable effects on the space station, satellite life and orbits?
If the surface of the earth is warming should we not see a measurable effect in earth quakes and volcanic activity due to the crust expansion?
The only one they see to talk about is rising ocean levels and as I live on the coast I see plenty of evidence the shore line has varied many miles long before man(?) made temperature rise.
Has anyone seen any documentation on this?
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

paperburn1
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Re: 2014 only the hottest year on the cooked books...

Postby paperburn1 » Sun Jun 14, 2015 12:02 pm

And there is this about global warming on mars
http://www.livescience.com/1349-sun-bla ... orlds.html
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

D Tibbets
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Re: 2014 only the hottest year on the cooked books...

Postby D Tibbets » Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:50 pm

It is not only the amount of sunlight, the absorption and emission of heat, but also the reflectivity of the atmosphere - mostly in the form of clouds. The cloud tops of Venus reflect a lot of sunlight, so simple atmospheric greenhouse gas comparisons are only a partial solution. On Earth clouds might reflect back to space or retain more heat, depending on the type and altitude of the clouds.There is uncertainty here and this decreases the confidence in the global warming projections. I don't know the validity of the data, but even if acurate, the projections are iffy.

I also agree that failure to have incorporation of solar output into the equation tells only part of the story. Actually, the Earths atmosphere has contracted in recent years. This is due to lower Sunspot numbers with associated decreased short wavelength solar radiance. This is evidenced by decreased LEO satellite orbit decay. Again, just what this means for the energy input/ output balance is uncertain. The field of global warming is a work in progress.

And, what annoys me, is the grandiose statements that are made, like the North polar ice cap will be gone in two years. A bold statement made multiple times over the last decade. When these bold claims are made, then dis proven with time, the credibility of the "experts" is damaged. Honest admission of uncertainty in responses to setbacks in their predictions are avoided. Excuses are given instead. I suspect some of the honest researchers cringe when they hear these pundits on their soap boxes.

I believe there is probably some global warming occurring as there has to be some warming or cooling on short term and long time scales. A perfect balance is impossible and is born out by Earth's history. The magnitude of the changes are the real issue, and this is where the confidence is low. Not included variables in a nice neat model is also a problem for prognosticators. Vulcanism, methane clatherites (sp?) stability, ocean current changes, Solar output, uncertainty in cloud effects, and no doubt numerous other elements plays a role in the final product.

It is sort of like plasma physics. It is hard to predict with high confidence. Only experiment/ time will give an accurate and precise answer. The Tokamak band wagon is perhaps a comparable example. Uncertain predictions and projections are used to justify a narrow viewpoint, and course of action.

Dan Tibbets
To error is human... and I'm very human.

mvanwink5
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Re: 2014 only the hottest year on the cooked books...

Postby mvanwink5 » Mon Jun 15, 2015 7:02 pm

Nice post, Dan. The trouble has been with the historical temperature proxies, and one proxy in particular, where one tree ring proxy bodge dominated the IPCC AGW scare story reports. And like the Hollywood demon 'Chuckie' that never really dies, even after complete overturning of the 'one tree to rule them all' proxy based hockey stick, the stick keeps finding its way out of the grave.

Now another proxy paper based on stalagmite growth has reaffirmed the reality of the Medieval Warm Period as well as other warm periods. Such warm climate variations counter the narrative that CO2 is the dominant climate driver and that CO2 is only explanation for the modern warm period narrative.

Here is the paper, also discussed at WUWT
http://www.nature.com/srep/2015/150611/ ... p10307.pdf
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/15/m ... ariations/

propaganda and real science don't mix well.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

choff
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Re: 2014 only the hottest year on the cooked books...

Postby choff » Tue Jun 16, 2015 12:02 am

If this case ever gets before a judge it should drive a stake through it.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/12/u ... f-his-own/
CHoff


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