why the deal with Iran

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williatw
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Re: why the deal with Iran

Postby williatw » Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:15 pm


Diogenes
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Re: why the deal with Iran

Postby Diogenes » Sat Jul 25, 2015 7:16 pm

I trust Israel's intelligence on what Iran's capabilities are. They have assets in Iran, the matter is of great interest to them, they've successfully sabotaged much of Iran's efforts, and I very much doubt Iran can hide this sort of information from them.




If Israel attacks Iran, and I will be surprised of they don't, then that will pretty much confirm that Iran does not yet have working nuclear devices.
‘What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.’
— Lord Melbourne —

williatw
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Re: why the deal with Iran

Postby williatw » Sat Jul 25, 2015 9:20 pm


paperburn1
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Re: why the deal with Iran

Postby paperburn1 » Sat Jul 25, 2015 11:03 pm

I have my doubts that Iran has any"operational" Soviet block weapons. Just to hard to maintain without appropriate infrastructure. Just my guess ...
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

Skipjack
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Re: why the deal with Iran

Postby Skipjack » Mon Jul 27, 2015 12:38 am

I think the Washington times article is BS and simply aimed at getting people in line for an attack on Iran.
I mean what is it now? the Ayatollahs are so eager (and suicidal) to nuke Israel which they could have already done with the nukes they allegedly have and that we do not want them to ever have, or they simply don't have any nukes? If it is the first one, then why haven't they done it yet? They had plenty of opportunity, not in the least via supporting terrorists that they allegedly love so much.
If it is the second, then what is all the fuss about?

ladajo
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Re: why the deal with Iran

Postby ladajo » Mon Jul 27, 2015 12:57 pm

I think it is a crock as well. But, to be completely fair, one never knows until one knows.
Not likely, but crazier things have happened.
If they had weapons already, they would be behaving very differently.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Diogenes
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Re: why the deal with Iran

Postby Diogenes » Mon Jul 27, 2015 4:04 pm

‘What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.’
— Lord Melbourne —

Diogenes
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Re: why the deal with Iran

Postby Diogenes » Mon Jul 27, 2015 4:10 pm

‘What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.’
— Lord Melbourne —

ladajo
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Re: why the deal with Iran

Postby ladajo » Mon Jul 27, 2015 7:06 pm

Stuart Slade has published a number of thoughts on these lines.
While I agree with some of his tenants and thinking, I do not agree with all. I have also, as I recall, spoken on this topic (not Stuart) here before.
One of the areas we agree with most closely is in what I call "The Nuclear Mythology".
This is the idea that propaganda has run rampant with nuclear capability truths.
Most of this propaganda is resident in the entertainment realm, and is treated on second, third, and forth order contact as truths. It is unfortunate and fortunate, both.
Some internet conspiracy nuts might even go one further to imply or claim that Nuclear Mythology was pushed by the soviets.
Some of this Mythology may have been on purpose, but I suspect a good bit of it running around today has taken a life of its own.

In any event, yes, nations that actually have nuclear capability do behave differently than others.
This, currently, is why I don't think Tsar Vlad is long for this earth. While he may be thinking to go the way of Idi Amin, retiring with his ill gotten booty to a nice coastal villa somewhere not Russia, I think that others (Russian), will intervene and do so based on nuclear logic.

This is also why I do not think that DPRK has a viable nuclear option. If they have anything, they don't trust it and behave accordingly.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)

What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

krenshala
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Re: why the deal with Iran

Postby krenshala » Mon Jul 27, 2015 8:33 pm

I guess thats the difference in attitude displayed between "You see this shotgun on my back? Leave off!" and "Leave off, or I'll go home and get the shotgun I recently got!"

paperburn1
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Re: why the deal with Iran

Postby paperburn1 » Mon Jul 27, 2015 8:36 pm

There is circumstantial evidence that points to an Israeli covert attack on a Iranian nuclear facility, the one in Parchin in 2014.
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

Skipjack
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Re: why the deal with Iran

Postby Skipjack » Sat Aug 08, 2015 7:10 am

The Mossad is the best secret service in the world. If the Israelis knew that Iran had any nuclear capabilities, or were very close to having them, they would immediately show the proof to the rest of the world. Then they would take that as a reason to justify an attack Iran and probably ask for support from the US for that. The fact that they have not done that, tells me enough.
The rest is propaganda to ensure that things keep going certain ways. Lots of people will lose lots of money when sanctions on Iran are lifted. Some might make some money too. If you ask cynical old me, those objecting to the deal are afraid to lose money or act on behalf of someone who is afraid of losing money.

paperburn1
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Re: why the deal with Iran

Postby paperburn1 » Sat Aug 08, 2015 12:24 pm

On the issue of money I think people are forgetting that Iran has well over $75 billion being held in foreign accounts. This is the official amount and does not include the 10s of billions that have been squirreled away outside of Iran in non-sanctioned accounts by the mullahs. This could actually be considered quite a windfall in any economic circle. While on undoubtedly there is hundreds of millions be made in black-market trade events I think the people that control the money have realized that there is even more money to be made by releasing all this money that has been locked up over the years.The United States will rescind most of its banking sanctions, allowing Iranian banks to reconnect to the global financial system, and will lift restrictions on various Iranian industries, as well as trade in gold and other precious metals. Nearly 750 companies, individuals, aircraft and ships will be removed from U.S. blacklists.
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

Skipjack
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Re: why the deal with Iran

Postby Skipjack » Sun Aug 09, 2015 3:15 am

I think that the republicans that are against the Iran deal are told to do so by certain oil companies that are threatened to lose a lot of money once Iranian oil starts flooding the market.
The rest are just paranoid. Really every since 9/11 American are suffering from some sort of mass paranoia. All of a sudden, everyone is an enemy and out to destroy the glorious US.
In reality, there has not been a serious terrorist attack on US soil since 9/11 and car accidents kill 10 times as many people every year as 9/11 did. 10,000 deaths on the roads due to drunk drivers every year. Want to make people safer? Install breathalyzers into every car.

palladin9479
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Re: why the deal with Iran

Postby palladin9479 » Wed Aug 12, 2015 1:23 am

Skipjack going all nutty on this already.

Iran almost certainly has soviet era nukes, whether they are actually operational or not is harder to tell. The triggers on those nukes need to be replaced at regular intervals, otherwise they degrade and run a big risk of the weapon not detonating. Iran may not have the technology required to fully replace those triggers or may only be replacing them with poor quality home built versions. This makes any nuclear options they might possess very sketchy and not particularly reliable. And assuming Israel knows about this, they wouldn't want to directly tell the world how they know because they would then lose those critical intel assets.

World geopolitics isn't a game about who's "right" or "wrong", Israel running around saying "Look mommy I have proof Johny is mean to me" won't garner much if any real support. Instead their best course of action is to let on that they know less then they really know and to keep letting Johny think he's not being watched.


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