Talk-Polywell.org

palladin9479 wrote:Skipjack going all nutty on this already.

Iran almost certainly has soviet era nukes, whether they are actually operational or not is harder to tell. The triggers on those nukes need to be replaced at regular intervals, otherwise they degrade and run a big risk of the weapon not detonating. Iran may not have the technology required to fully replace those triggers or may only be replacing them with poor quality home built versions. This makes any nuclear options they might possess very sketchy and not particularly reliable. And assuming Israel knows about this, they wouldn't want to directly tell the world how they know because they would then lose those critical intel assets.

Well thanks for the intelligent commentary on the subject. I would agree a few dozen or so decaying old Soviet tactical nukes bought in the late '80's early nineties (that were probably old when they were bought) isn't exactly going to cause Iran to be swaggering around the world stage acting like they are a "nuclear power". They maybe saw a chance to scarf some nukes on the relative cheap and took it, that's all; nothing surprising about that. Sure they took some of them apart and learned whatever they could from them; the rest of the lot a sort of hail marry just in case they were ever nuked by say Israel. Not the same as having their own nukes brand new in whatever quantity or configuration they want with their own compatible delivery systems to go toe to toe if need be against Israel.

palladin9479 wrote:Skipjack going all nutty on this already.

Iran almost certainly has soviet era nukes

If that is the case and if they really are (according to certain people) complete suicidal loons that was to destroy Israel and the US at all cost, why haven't they simply smuggled those things in containers headed for the US and Israel to blow them up in the harbor? Instead of waiting until the things degrade?
Since they allegedly fund all sorts of terrorism, why wasn't 9/11 done with a nuke instead of an airplane, if they have a whole bunch of nukes lying around?
And Russian nukes would be even more convenient, since everyone would point fingers at Russia.
Why? Because they don't frick have any!

palladin9479 wrote: And assuming Israel knows about this, they wouldn't want to directly tell the world how they know because they would then lose those critical intel assets.

So, then why are they whining about the Iran deal like that?! They whine about everything and anything if it gets the US in line with their interests. I am sure they would inform at least the US about this threat. They are "our most important ally in the war against terror" after all.

palladin9479 wrote: World geopolitics isn't a game about who's "right" or "wrong", Israel running around saying "Look mommy I have proof Johny is mean to me" won't garner much if any real support. Instead their best course of action is to let on that they know less then they really know and to keep letting Johny think he's not being watched.

And what would they achieve with that? If Iran has nukes, they are an immediate threat. I can promise you that Israel would immediately launch a preemptive strike if that was the case.
No, Iran does not have any. It is Iraq's weapons of mass destruction all over again.