What was it they said about "Gog and Magog"?

[mvanwink5]

Forgetting the Libyan 'success'? How did that work out for a stable non terrorist state and the great migration?

But, you have a point, 1.5 billion, an easy number to contend with for the geniuses. Looks like the European solution is surrender by sublimation (I recall somewhere the bloody Hindu - Muslim riots, must be the temporary dream solution, and Kashmir is so peaceful).

[Skipjack]

He was a socialist. Almost as bad. As for them being religious nut jobs, much of the Muslim world was relatively sane during this period.

Well, well he was not a muslim religious nutjob which was my point. Whether he was "almost as bad" is a matter of perspective. He was certainly better than what Iran has now. Dont you agree?!

They just wanted power and that was the only excuse they could find to seize upon. The average Iranian did not really give a crap, it was the small determined minority among them that agitated the overthrow of the Shah and the institutionalization of Theocratic Islam.

Of course! That was my point! The problem was that the Shah had successfully destroyed the middle class in his country. When the middle class is destroyed, you always have a powderkeg. The mob is easily rallied against the ruling classes without a middle class in its way. When the middle class is weak, they look the other way. They have their own problems to take care of.

We have seen over and over again, that in a Muslim country, the "moderate" Muslims will stand around wringing their hands and saying "Oh Dear", while the radicals implement actual Islam, and go about killing heretics and infidels. "Heretic" is here defined as anyone who opposes the Islamic based killings they are committing.

You can see that in any revolution that leads to a ideologically motivated totalitarian regime. It always is the same pattern. It is usually preceded by some event that drains and/or breaks the middle class.

When we fail in our foreign politics, it is usually the result of having a Democrat running foreign policy, or from listening to the "nation building" component of our Ivy League (bleeding heart liberal socialist) trained Diplomatic corps. Reagan's foreign policy was mostly pretty good. He made a few blunders, but he more than made up for them with his overall performance.

Let me see: Iran Contra, not sure this can be called "good".
Supported Saddam Hussein. If that was so good, why did we remove him years later?
Supported the Taliban in Afghanistan. Well that was a "winner".

Like I said, he was a D@mn socialist, and addressing the relative moderateness of 1950s Iran, I have to compare them to Gremlins.

So what? At least he was secular and not a religious nutjob. You can't have it both ways.
Either way, it was NONE OF YOUR darn BUSINESS!

[Skipjack]

Well, uh-huh. And how's that working out with the million refugees and growing issue? Like maybe Europe (and the US) should have headed the whole thing off at the pass and taken out Assad up front?

Those refugees are not fleeing from Assad, but from ISIS! And ISIS is there because the US supported the rebels against Assad in Syria. All the Syrians I know here that used to be against Assad prefer him over ISIS. So yeah, great win there! Sometimes I wonder whether the US is doing this on purpose to destabilize the region and harm Europe with the waves of refugees. It would explain why the US is not taking any relevant numbers of Syrians after the mess they have caused there.

[mvanwink5]

The next guy and cronies will do something different, more bombs, etc. The only group benefiting as far as I can see are the military suppliers (and Banksters). But then there is the unsustainable spending set to go Greek. Meddling and unintended consequences, and constant democratic gubberment foreign policy churn.

[ladajo]

Those refugees are not fleeing from Assad, but from ISIS!

Uh...no. They are fleeing for all sorts of reasons, most of which involve random parties trying to kill them, which includes Assad.
It is a great misconception to think that IS is the only fight going on in the Greater Syria War(GSW). It looks an awful lot like Bosnia, or Lybia, or Afghanistan, or other places where central authority collapsed and it became a free for all grab for dominance. Even if it was just in your 'local' area.

I am thinking that you are fairly thin on understanding, or even be aware of, the complex dynamics in play.
Strangely enough, in the GSW, the moderate Kurds are the key. But right now the dynamics are artificially limiting any ability to leverage that.
It is, in my humble opinion, the only stop the train could make. And currently, I don't see that stop on the schedule, nor do I see a viable means to get it added.
The optimist in me would like to think that things can be influence to re-create that option, but right now, I think the stop was missed.
Soon to accelerate the train, will be the combination of Russian escalation and the influx of Iranian Instability Warfare $$$ on both sides of Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
You think it looks like an out of control mess now. Just wait. Won't it be funny if the Russians defacto annex Syria...
Before this is said and done, and probably within the decade, maybe within five years, someone is going to get nuked. But first there will be some general mayhem beyond what you are seeing now.
If you are wondering what the tell is going to be, it is Lebanon. When you see the big crack, right before the Lebanese implosion, I recommend you encourage friends and family in the area to beat feet. Once Lebanon implodes, things are going to go downhill exponentially fast.
See what sticking your European head in the sand accomplishes? Multiple global scale conflicts, deaths of millions, destruction of multiple societies.
Diplomacy has become the art of avoidance. It did not used to be. Avoidance is not a viable long term strategy. History is primarily built on that lesson and the bodies of its victims. Sigh.

[Skipjack]

Those refugees are not fleeing from Assad, but from ISIS!

Uh...no. They are fleeing for all sorts of reasons, most of which involve random parties trying to kill them, which includes Assad.
It is a great misconception to think that IS is the only fight going on in the Greater Syria War(GSW). It looks an awful lot like Bosnia, or Lybia, or Afghanistan, or other places where central authority collapsed and it became a free for all grab for dominance. Even if it was just in your 'local' area.

I am thinking that you are fairly thin on understanding, or even be aware of, the complex dynamics in play.
Strangely enough, in the GSW, the moderate Kurds are the key. But right now the dynamics are artificially limiting any ability to leverage that.
It is, in my humble opinion, the only stop the train could make. And currently, I don't see that stop on the schedule, nor do I see a viable means to get it added.
The optimist in me would like to think that things can be influence to re-create that option, but right now, I think the stop was missed.
Soon to accelerate the train, will be the combination of Russian escalation and the influx of Iranian Instability Warfare $$$ on both sides of Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
You think it looks like an out of control mess now. Just wait. Won't it be funny if the Russians defacto annex Syria...
Before this is said and done, and probably within the decade, maybe within five years, someone is going to get nuked. But first there will be some general mayhem beyond what you are seeing now.
If you are wondering what the tell is going to be, it is Lebanon. When you see the big crack, right before the Lebanese implosion, I recommend you encourage friends and family in the area to beat feet. Once Lebanon implodes, things are going to go downhill exponentially fast.
See what sticking your European head in the sand accomplishes? Multiple global scale conflicts, deaths of millions, destruction of multiple societies.
Diplomacy has become the art of avoidance. It did not used to be. Avoidance is not a viable long term strategy. History is primarily built on that lesson and the bodies of its victims. Sigh.

Much of this mess is because of the US interfering in something that should have been left alone. Assad is not our problem, never was. As I said, most of the Syrians I know (quite a few have come to Detroit which has a large Arab minority) were originally in favor of the rebellion. They have changed their mind now and are backing Assad again. Naturally Russia will try to increase its influence in the region by helping out Assad. That is not very different from what the US tried in Iraq. We will see how that works for them. Probably not well.
You and your obsession with nukes! So far the only country in the region with nukes in Israel and unless Saudi Arabia buys nukes from Pakistan, this will hopefully stay that way.
Personally, I find the idea that the Saudis could have nukes as disturbing as I find the idea that Iran could have nukes. I am most disturbed by Pakistan which already has nukes. They are all religious nutbags living in Al Quaida's backyard and you can never know whether the guy guarding those nuclear warheads in Pakistan has not lost a family member as a collateral in a US drone strike. Next thing you know one of the nukes disappears and is on its way to the US in a shipping container. Thanks to the fact that the Saudi nutbags are guarding US harbors, that container is certain to arrive there too.
People are worried that Iran may one day have a nuke... Bah! I am worried about Pakistan which arleady has nukes! And if Saudi Arabia ever gets nukes, well heaven protect us!

[hanelyp]

Regarding 1.5 Billion Muslims, I note 2 points:

- they are deeply divided into 2 factions almost as inclined to shoot at each other as to shoot at the rest of us.

- I expect a great many are muslim as the religion of least resistance. Prune enough of the worst and those remaining have a hope of moderating.

As for potential political explosions around the world in the near future:

- The Chinese economy appears to be a house of cards on the edge of collapse. It's been speculated they may engage in military adventures as a distraction.

- Last I heard the Russian economy was weak and dependent on oil exports. That was before the recent plummet in oil prices below the level Russia needs for their exports.

- Europe appears on course for not just demographic collapse in the face of immigration, but also economic decline and eventual collapse under socialist policies. Greece is just the preview.

In the US:

- The economy is in far worse shape than the official numbers indicate.

- years of effectively zero interest rates and quantitative easing have set the stock market up for one Mother of a collapse.

- Major elements of government have lost all credibility with elements of the population. Laws are being enforced that many of us feel are invalid. And yet other elements of society don't think the government is going far enough.

And when the US economy takes another sharp downturn the rest of the world follows.

[ladajo]

Much of this mess is because of the US interfering in something that should have been left alone.

Well, actually the U.S. tried to leave it alone, but was dragged into action (again) by who? And, in fact, the trying to leave it alone allowed it to morph out of control as the "hands off" policy held the day. That all went away when pressures mounted due to Assad beginning and prosecuting a strong indiscriminate murder campaign of his nation's citizens. This in turn cause much hand wringing and looking to the U.S. for someone to do something. ISIS came after the fact, and as a direct result of "hands off". Again, if quick, determined, and focused action had occured right up front, and removed Assad from the argument, things would look significantly different today. Now that everyone has a head of steam, their is again "no stops on that train".

Regarding 1.5 Billion Muslims, I note 2 points:

- they are deeply divided into 2 factions almost as inclined to shoot at each other as to shoot at the rest of us.

- I expect a great many are muslim as the religion of least resistance. Prune enough of the worst and those remaining have a hope of moderating.

Yes, but please note that it is two major factions, as well as several other minor factions, and in the two majors, there are significant numbers of subdivisions that also do not agree with anyone.
All that said, the bulk of islamic folk are moderate. They are not seeking world domination and just want to live their lives. Most of them are islamic, just as with other major religions, because they were born to it. Amazingly enough, the higher the average education level in the sample population, the more moderate they seem to be. As is the same with other religions.

The extreme, are exactly that, extreme, ie. not part of the middle of the bell curve, they exist on the ends. And as such, remain a minority, one that is capitalizing on the silence of the majority. Why is the majority silent you ask? Well you can ask the same of most any population group.

I fully agree that the developed world is an economic house of cards right now. There are many factors and inter-relationships that make it a wicked problem. Neither the PRC or Russia has ever had a real economy, not matter what marketing posters might have taken you in at some point. They are imaginary economies.

[mvanwink5]

Actually, I am rethinking my worry about the Muslim immigrant European invasion. The disastrous results could likely galvanize the general European populace opposition with blowback overturning of Eurozone, German, France, etc leadership. In other words, the Euro frog wakes up and jumps the pot. So, this could get interesting.

[Skipjack]

Much of this mess is because of the US interfering in something that should have been left alone.

Well, actually the U.S. tried to leave it alone, but was dragged into action (again) by who?

Now, I am curious. When was that and by who? Assad has been there all the time. It has been the same for years. The great migration of refugees only started after the rebellion and especially when ISIS came in.
You should really talk to my Syrian friends here. I can tell you, they all prefer Assad, asshole as he may be, over ISIS and the current rebel groups. They were in favor of the rebels in the beginning, but have long changed their minds. No one in their right mind wants the rebels to win right now.

[choff]

Now that the Russians are in Syria, Iranian troops are apparently flocking in to join them in combating ISIS. This could be problematic for the Russians if those same Iranian troops decided to launch attacks on Israel. The situation in the ME could not be more FUBAR.(I could be wrong, our great leaders might outdo themselves yet.)

[Skipjack]

Now that the Russians are in Syria, Iranian troops are apparently flocking in to join them in combating ISIS. This could be problematic for the Russians if those same Iranian troops decided to launch attacks on Israel. The situation in the ME could not be more FUBAR.(I could be wrong, our great leaders might outdo themselves yet.)

Why would the Iranian troops do that? Right now they are interested in fighting against ISIS. Going against Israel is a distraction. I think that having foreign troops in their country will be a big problem for Syria more than anyone else. It is really hard to get rid of them, once they are there. Then you have foreign interests in your country and that is not good either. Assad had little choice but to take their help against ISIS. But I dont think he is really happy about it (he would be stupid if he was).
It will be interesting to watch how all this plays out.

[ladajo]

Dude...

You really don't know what's going on in the GSW do you?
I'll give you a clue why Iran is there, and also why Iran helped broker the deal to get the Russians to commit real power: Lebanon.
And I'll even lay a trail of breadcrumbs to help you find your way...

Iran in Syria = access to Lebanon = access to Hezbollah = access to Palestine = access to frick with Israel.
Russia in Syria = access to arms contracts and military basing for the Mediterranean Sea, which right now is a NATO bathtub from their perspective. The whole Bosphorus thing really stresses our Russian friends. Also you should ask yourself who is letting these Russian AN-124s fly down to Syria, and who isn't.
Get it?

The Iranians have been in Syria for a while, and even lost QUDs troops there. They were losing, and needed an assist.
One quick trip to Moscow by our favorite QUDs commander, and viola! The Russians Go Big in Syria and look to go high order in the GSW.
The trouble with all this as I told you before, is that the Russians and Iranians do not share the same objectives.
It is not going to go well at all.
Again, once you see the fatal crack open up in Lebanon, then stand back. Its gonna get even more messy, and the end result is that Israel may well end up nuking somebody.

[ladajo]

Oh, almost forgot. I don't need to talk to your Syrian buddies. I was just on the ground in Southern Turkey a couple of weeks ago for a couple of weeks. Plenty of Syrians running around. Well to be fair, mostly not running around, mostly hanging out on the ground next to their piles of stuff watching others walk west looking for boats. Almost two million of them in Turkey right now. Plenty to talk to of all flavors, and decidedly more relevant to the discussion than your "buddies".

[Skipjack]

Oh, almost forgot. I don't need to talk to your Syrian buddies. I was just on the ground in Southern Turkey a couple of weeks ago for a couple of weeks. Plenty of Syrians running around. Well to be fair, mostly not running around, mostly hanging out on the ground next to their piles of stuff watching others walk west looking for boats. Almost two million of them in Turkey right now. Plenty to talk to of all flavors, and decidedly more relevant to the discussion than your "buddies".

Whatever...