Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

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djolds1
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by djolds1 »

choff wrote:Even assuming the Russians overflew Turkish airspace, their actions can in no way have been construed as threatening Turkey, unless the Turks think attacking ISIS terrorists is a threat to their sovereignty.
The Russians were attacking Turkomen in "Syria." Consider how the Russians would react if the Poles started bombing ethnic Russians in... say... Estonia.
choff wrote:I watched a video the other day of soccer games having a minutes silence for victims of the Paris attack. All the European stadiums were completely silent, in the Turkish stadiums there was instead loud jeering and chants of Allah Akbar, they should be kicked out of NATO, clearly they don't belong.
No doubt as to their loyalties. Erdogan has entirely dismantled the Kemalist secular Turkish state; the Ikhwan now rule Turkey.
Vae Victis

ladajo
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by ladajo »

The moment of silence is a cultural difference in how it is implemented.
The Turks sign and chant for those who were lost. This has been wildly misreported across the internet.
And to be clear, they were not doing so for the attackers, it was for the attacked.

I also find it humorous that you guys are fixated on this shoot-down. The Russians asked for it, several times, and pushed the Turkish to change their Rules of Engagement. The Russians did not believe that the Turks had changed the ROE after several violations by the Russians, and so the Turks demonstrated that they had.

Putin's answer: "You guys suck, I don't suck!", and he told the operating units in Syria to provide fighter escorts to tactical bombers. I believe he is also going to try and send more surface air defense to Syria as a "threat". It will be interesting to see how he gets it there. Especially considering that the Turks control the Bosphorus... that may mean he sneaks bits and pieces of S-400 in by heavy lift air via Iran/Iraq, or he tries to sneak the shipment through from the Black Sea without telling anyone.

What will he not do: Attack Turkey.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

ladajo
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by ladajo »

Here is a good article that helps put Putin/Russia in context:

https://www.commentarymagazine.com/arti ... orgetting/

I think there is some truth to the generational gap occurring in understanding. It is also exacerbated by the mind staggering ease with which information can be moved around. Unfortunately, the younger folks are, the less they understand the power and value of information. Especially, how misinformation can shape and control. It is ironic to me that in the age of the most powerful ability ever to share truth, we instead use this power to spread untruth. I think this is resident in the "consumerist" approach to life that is the norm for younger folks. The concept that they don't need to take time to digest something and partake of its value. Instead, to continue the food allegory, they prefer driveby buffets where they selectively binge on things they like, and ignore the rest. And in the act of the binge, don't take time to actually understand what they are eating tastes like, or whether or not it has nutritional value. The speed of information, while extremely supportive of propagandist agendas, is also the dearth of desire to consider and reflect on what one has read or experienced. Instead, it seems to be breeding a desire to skip through the tuplips, and not actually stop and experience them. Thinking is not required, and in fact, it seems more and more folks are stopping thinking for themselves, and becoming deluded with a buffet selection of other's thoughts (who are trying to drive and agenda), and believing they are their own.
Independent thought is being crushed by the sheer volume (both quantity and loudness) of shallow thinkers. This is what makes propaganda work; failure to question its veracity.

This is how Putin prefers to fight. He claims direct confrontation, but when you actually pay attention, he operates from the oblique, and is afraid of direct confrontation. He will bark a lot, make like he will punch you in the face, but then seek to have a 'friend' stab you in the kidney while you are in the bathroom later. He is a classic smart bully.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Skipjack
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by Skipjack »

Still leaves the point the that the Russian SU24 was at most for 14 seconds in Turkish airspace and that is assuming that the Turks are not lying. Erdogan is known to be a liar and possibly also involved in various murders. So I would not put it past him. In fact I would not put anything past him.

paperburn1
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by paperburn1 »

I think it is a fair assessment to say that Putin is more flash then actual substance in this particular case. Admittedly Turkey did not follow rules engagement that was assigned by Russia United States NATO and Turkey to prevent such things from happening. I'm willing to bet whoever ordered to shoot down is in hack right now. But as for Putin doing an actual response in a military fashion against Turkey, I do not see that happening. What I do see is happening is that Turkey buys a whole Lotta gas from Russia and right about midwinter I could see a price hike or a pipeline problem that cuts them off for a short time. I mean even Putin won't kill his primary revenue source from Turkey.
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

choff
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by choff »

This is how Putin prefers to fight. He claims direct confrontation, but when you actually pay attention, he operates from the oblique, and is afraid of direct confrontation.

He's oblique and afraid of direct confrontation until he isn't. I wouldn't want to keep predicting future behavior based on the past, unless you claim psychic abilities
CHoff

Diogenes
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by Diogenes »

djolds1 wrote:
Diogenes wrote:It is my understanding that Turkey has been buying that ISIS oil.
Everyone deals with everyone in the ME. They just don't necessarily admit it.

It is apparently not a vague or tenuous "every body does it" thing at all. It is apparently linked directly to Erdogan's son.

Image



djolds1 wrote:
Diogenes wrote:It's worse than that according to another poster on another website.
It actually depends on who you ask. The map in post #2 (thanks, McGruff) shows that the incident happened over Turkey's Hatay Province. Hatay Province was annexed by Turkey in 1939. Before that the province was aligned with Syria.

The Syrians have never recognized the Turkish annexation of the region. Below is taken from the Wikipedia article on the province:

Syrians hold the view that this land was illegally ceded to Turkey by France, the mandatory occupying power of Syria in the late 1930s. Syria still considers it an integral part of its own territory...Official Syrian maps still show Hatay as part of Syria.
The Syrians may well regard that area as their airspace and perhaps they so informed the Russians.

There is no Syria. There is a shattered, balkanized territory of mutually homicidal factions. The fact that you think that there is a Syria, and that lines on a map still matter, is... touching.

Borders are as strong as the forces that can hold them. I expect those lines on the map to become increasingly meaningful as Russia atrits the forces arrayed against Assad. They may not mean much to opportunists at the present, but I am pretty sure some sort of order is going to get imposed within those lines before this is over.


I think the losers in this game are going to be Erdogan and his pals/family who have been reaping so many of the benefits of the ISIS rampage. I think Erdogan's shoot down was a deliberate ambush and done out of frustration that the Russians are killing his cash cow and clipping his influence in Syria.


This is not just about lines on a map. The lines were an excuse. This is about someone thinking they are big enough to slap Putin across the face. I do not believe Putin can let this pass without some sort of significant retaliation beyond the Economic conflict he just initiated with Turkey.
‘What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.’
— Lord Melbourne —

djolds1
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by djolds1 »

Diogenes wrote:
djolds1 wrote:Everyone deals with everyone in the ME. They just don't necessarily admit it.
It is apparently not a vague or tenuous "every body does it" thing at all. It is apparently linked directly to Erdogan's son.
Quite probable. But see also the backchannel Saudi/Israeli deals. Everyone deals with everyone in the ME.
Diogenes wrote:
djolds1 wrote:There is no Syria. There is a shattered, balkanized territory of mutually homicidal factions. The fact that you think that there is a Syria, and that lines on a map still matter, is... touching.
Borders are as strong as the forces that can hold them. I expect those lines on the map to become increasingly meaningful as Russia atrits the forces arrayed against Assad. They may not mean much to opportunists at the present, but I am pretty sure some sort of order is going to get imposed within those lines before this is over.
Agreed. Lines are being redrawn in real time, however.
Diogenes wrote:I think the losers in this game are going to be Erdogan and his pals/family who have been reaping so many of the benefits of the ISIS rampage. I think Erdogan's shoot down was a deliberate ambush and done out of frustration that the Russians are killing his cash cow and clipping his influence in Syria.

This is not just about lines on a map. The lines were an excuse. This is about someone thinking they are big enough to slap Putin across the face. I do not believe Putin can let this pass without some sort of significant retaliation beyond the Economic conflict he just initiated with Turkey.
Again, quite probable. Unlike the current POTUS, Putin is not a fool that will happily be trifled with. And the war in the ME is going on at multiple levels. One level is the intra-Sunni war; Salafis (the Wahhabis, alQ and ISIS) vs Ikhwan (The Brotherhood). By degrading Erdogan - the most powerful Ikhwan player left after the suppression of the Brotherhood in Egypt - Putin may be tilting that particular part of the conflict to the Salafis. Significant implications for the future there.
Vae Victis

MSimon
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by MSimon »

Meet The Man Who Funds ISIS: Bilal Erdogan, The Son Of Turkey's President
More and more details are coming to light revealing that the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, variously known as ISIS, IS or Daesh, is being fed and kept alive by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish President and by his Turkish intelligence service, including MIT, the Turkish CIA. Turkey, as a result of Erdogan’s pursuit of what some call a Neo-Ottoman Empire fantasies that stretch all the way to China, Syria and Iraq, threatens not only to destroy Turkey but much of the Middle East if he continues on his present path.

In October 2014 US Vice President Joe Biden told a Harvard gathering that Erdogan’s regime was backing ISIS with “hundreds of millions of dollars and thousands of tons of weapons…” Biden later apologized clearly for tactical reasons to get Erdo?an’s permission to use Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base for airstrikes against ISIS in Syria, but the dimensions of Erdogan’s backing for ISIS since revealed is far, far more than Biden hinted.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by MSimon »

choff wrote:Even assuming the Russians overflew Turkish airspace, their actions can in no way have been construed as threatening Turkey, unless the Turks think attacking ISIS terrorists is a threat to their sovereignty. I watched a video the other day of soccer games having a minutes silence for victims of the Paris attack. All the European stadiums were completely silent, in the Turkish stadiums there was instead loud jeering and chants of Allah Akbar, they should be kicked out of NATO, clearly they don't belong.
Turkey has been complaining of Russian incursions for months. Are the complaints valid? We won't know for years after the war is over. And it is far from over.

None the less what happened cannot have come as a complete surprise to the Russians.

======================

The Ukraine has shut off Russian gas. There are other pipelines that can support Europe from Russia.

Still. It complicates warfare when you make war on your customers.

#3 son who has lived in Russia for about the last five years (working as an adjunct to the American Embassy) left this last summer. We are very happy to have him back in the USA. He is living in Chicago and visiting for the holidays.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by MSimon »

djolds1 wrote:
Diogenes wrote:
djolds1 wrote:Everyone deals with everyone in the ME. They just don't necessarily admit it.
It is apparently not a vague or tenuous "every body does it" thing at all. It is apparently linked directly to Erdogan's son.
Quite probable. But see also the backchannel Saudi/Israeli deals. Everyone deals with everyone in the ME.
The Saudi/Israeli rapprochement dates publicly from about 2006. Probably secretly for a few years before that. They are allies against Iran and Hezbollah.

Iran believes that if Syria falls completely so does Iran. The mullahs can't hold on without Syria.

My belief is that US policy is the overthrow of the mullahs in Iran. It is also US policy (for the time being at least) to destroy as many ME nations as possible in the belief that tribes are easier to deal with than nations. Long term policy (30 to 50 years out)? Who knows?

The Saudis are reducing the power of their religious police. Slowly. But they are on a shorter leash than in times past. The death of a number of female school children because the religious police forced the females back in a burning school building changed something in Saudi land.

It is my understanding that US "trainers" are working with the Kurds. Will the US be arming the Kurds. At this time it does not seem like it. But that may change.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

ladajo
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by ladajo »

Erdogan and Putin are both men of excessive pride. They are current in a public Pose-off. Out of the two, Erdogan is more rash. This public rashness has yet to be suicidal.

Yes he and his son are really corrupt, everone knows this. He and Putin are birds of a feather in this regard, with the exception that Putin has no legacy upon which to base his meglomania. The is no prodgal son for Putin. This makes him very unpredictable and dangerous in my opinion. He only cares about himself. That said, he is not going to start a miltary war with Turkey. It might make him look bad, and he knows it, given the high level of risk of taking on the Turkish military. They are not kidding, and area well equipped and trained.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)


ladajo
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by ladajo »

Expected move on Putin's part. Now watch as the "seperatists" in the area suddenly become armed for air defense, and knock down some Russian aircraft.

The gap Putin has been taking advantage of is this lack of air defense. That is about to change I think. If nt the Turks, then the Arabs will source.

The russians have a weakness here, given lack of counters and needs to fly low and close for dumb bombing.

I also expect some more attacks on Russian basing.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

paperburn1
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by paperburn1 »

I can see a "mercenary" pilot take a run at the soviet navel base. That is why they are moving all those launchers around the base.
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

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