Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

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ladajo
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by ladajo »

The russians are fairly exposed in Syria. This will more than likely become apparent as folks start going after them.
If the rebels are helped with the ground based air defense, that is going to cause some problems as it is the Russian's biggest weakness in Syria.
The lack of PGMs and effective high use standoff air delivered weapons is high risk for them. My sense is that the only thing providing the MANPAD gap for them to exploit has been an unwillingness by ordnance suppliers to step up that game given the flights of coalition units over Syria.
The answer is to embed some controlled capability either via shelf-life or direct control with on the ground para-military.
We shall see.
I do strongly suspect we have not seen the last Russian aircraft to go down. Smoking the Turkish convoy was an opportunity hard to pass up, but it will drive the proxy war to another level.
If the western nations want to stick it to Putin, they should spin up East Ukraine and Crimea. Putin faces big difficulties to manage both as active fights at the same time. In addition, provide some more anti-air to the Kurds and Turkmen in Syria. Things will get very sporty very fast for Putin.
He will face some hard choices if that all comes together.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

djolds1
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by djolds1 »

MSimon wrote:
djolds1 wrote:]Quite probable. But see also the backchannel Saudi/Israeli deals. Everyone deals with everyone in the ME.
The Saudi/Israeli rapprochement dates publicly from about 2006. Probably secretly for a few years before that. They are allies against Iran and Hezbollah.

Iran believes that if Syria falls completely so does Iran. The mullahs can't hold on without Syria.
The Vilayat-e Faqih regime in Tehran can hold on just fine without Syria. What it CANNOT do without Syria is build the Shia Crescent. The Shia Crescent is Iran's attempt to build hegemony over the Muslim World, and is in direct competition with both brands of Sunni that want to rebuild Sunni hegemony - the Brotherhood and the Salafi. The Iranians are looking to upset what has been the status quo in the Muslim World for centuries, and refocus the Muslim World on Persia and Shiism. The Brotherhood and Salafis are both aiming at restoring different interpretations of the Ottoman status quo ante.

To build the Shia Crescent, the Iranians need a geographic anchor on the Mediterranean. That anchor is Assad-ville.

This ambition is the direct cause of the Saudi/Iranian tensions - the Salafi are the Saudi's field army.
MSimon wrote:My belief is that US policy is the overthrow of the mullahs in Iran. It is also US policy (for the time being at least) to destroy as many ME nations as possible in the belief that tribes are easier to deal with than nations. Long term policy (30 to 50 years out)? Who knows?
There is no short, medium or long term American policy for the ME at present. Obama was trying to refocus alliances in the region from the Sunni Arabs to the Persians, but the Persians rebuffed him. Then abandoning Iraq led to its predictable implosion, Mohamed Bouazizi lights himself up in Tunisia and inspires a sensation, and the entire region comes apart. Everything now is just CYA until it's the next sucker's problem.

Never should've gone into Iraq in 2003. But once we did, we should've stayed for 50 years. Didn't do that either. Actions have consequences.
MSimon wrote:It is my understanding that US "trainers" are working with the Kurds. Will the US be arming the Kurds. At this time it does not seem like it. But that may change.
The Obama Administration has largely abandoned the Kurds to their fate.
Vae Victis

ladajo
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by ladajo »

The Vilayat-e Faqih regime in Tehran can hold on just fine without Syria. What it CANNOT do without Syria is build the Shia Crescent. The Shia Crescent is Iran's attempt to build hegemony over the Muslim World, and is in direct competition with both brands of Sunni that want to rebuild Sunni hegemony - the Brotherhood and the Salafi.
Yes.

Also do not overlook how "Assad-ville" gives access for Iran to Hezbollah, Lebanon, and Israel.
The geography of the move also allows them to "back-door" those pesky annoying Jordanians, and then connect into Yemen. This then provides envelopment of Saudi, Bahrain, and UAE, as well as places Oman better a hammer and anvil.
Never overlook to importance of geography as is too often the case these days of light speed high density communications. For all the technological flash of current times, at the end of the day, real power still requires boots on the ground control, either direct or by proxy.
This is Obama's biggest niativity, he completely believes in the power of the message. That he can talk anyone into what he wants. It comes from being a coward. He is not the type to stand up for himself. Period. Thus, our nation under his lead, is not standing up for itself. Great policy in world affairs as we can see. None of the bullies have hesitated to step up in the past few years knowing full well they will not be confronted by any real strength.
Sigh.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Skipjack
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by Skipjack »

I prefer Assad and the Russians over the Turks, ISIS and the Saudis. Sorry to say that.

ladajo
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by ladajo »

Why would you lump "the Turks" in with ISIS and "the Saudis"?
In addition, why would you lump all Turks as a group, and all Saudis as a group?

Seems like you are mixing apples, oranges, and bananas. What say you?
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

mvanwink5
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by mvanwink5 »

Democracies are 69 cooks making soup. 50 years!!!??? LOL!!! One guy gets in and applies his 'genius' strategy, then the next 'genius' gets in and sees things differently. Get real.... This is the nature of a democracy. How many trillions spent so far in the Muddle East?

Now I imagine I will be told how ignorant it is to not try something, and if only we had done x-y-z and not done a-b-c then everything would have worked out magically.

Look, we are going on $20 trillion in debt and the bigger and bolder the dream gets in the form of, "Gubberment should do this or that to fix this or that," the worse it gets. Obamacare is a monument to the real nature of a progressive democratic process, it is not an aberration.

Try to be more modest in what the goals should be and more realistic in what can work. Make it as small as possible to limit the cost and damage. That is really the best that can be hoped for to be realistic. For instance, try for safe neighborhoods without instituting a police state. I would bet that if that was a goal we would end up with a police state in the end, so cancel that suggestion.... :roll:

And cut it out with the Globalist Utopian dream of a world wide Socialist prison farm... please!
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

ladajo
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by ladajo »

Unfortunately, the Middle East only matters because they have oil and gas. Eventually, they will not matter, and can go back to herding goats and chopping each others' heads off. The RoW needs to wake up and find a way to move away from global levers which connect to the very fabric of developed civilization. Hence Polywell, and others. History has shown that the centralized control by a few of a critical resource for all has not gone well.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

mvanwink5
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by mvanwink5 »

No need to wait for Fusion, fracking has driven oil cartels into powerless chaos.

There is no Muddle East strategy that is believable. If US leaves it for the Sunnis and Shias to fight it out, the rest of the world will do just fine as fracking is even viable for Europe.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

ladajo
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by ladajo »

The problem is someone else, like the PRC, will keep enabling them. Or Putinland, as they will seek to control the product as well.

As long as they are enabled, they are a problem.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

mvanwink5
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by mvanwink5 »

Putin does not run a democracy.

Putin will take steps to drive up the price of oil which means as one strategy continuous war in the Muddle East. Putin has also been engaged in anti-fracking propaganda. Predictable. But, consumption also is required for a good oil price and that means stability in Europe, China, US, etc. Not so much the Muslim East.

Face it, Putin needs peace in the rest of the world for a prosperous Russia. Obama Utopians and his cross eyed cousins the Neocons have been completely responsible for the Ukraine disaster, be honest, the Ukraine coup - NATO move was intended to cut Putin off from Crimea, their nuclear naval base, aimed to put a dog collar on Putin and Russia. The rest is double down by Obama Utopians and Neocons. Give it up, it is bankrupting the US and resulted in nothing but economic misery.

One way or another this muddling will end badly. It is already bad enough.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

ladajo
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by ladajo »

Tsar Vlad is shifting his market base to China.

The other stuff you are saying smacks a little of internet conspiracy theories.

Russia did not have 'free access' to the naval facility in Crimea even with the former jackass-in-charge Putin puppet. The fight was not about the base, it was about the arms industry. The funny part, is that Putin managed to cut himself off from the heart of the industrial capabilities that he wanted. What he got was perifery. Thus the oush into Eastern Ukraine, which also did not get him what he wanted. The Ukrainians put up to good a fight. Putin was losing too many Russian troops and it was starting to look like Georgia where he couldn't spin a story how good his forces were. Plus, the casualties were mounting too fast to keep looking good at home.
If someone wants Putin out of Syria, ramp up casualties thwre, AND spin up East Ukraine again.
He can't do both, and in fact can't really pull off either without unmasking completely. Which would expise him to more risk and backlash.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

mvanwink5
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by mvanwink5 »

You make my point, strategy x-y-z and all the genius strategies get you what? And what did the CIA accomplish? And don't give me the internet conspiracy BS when billions were given to Ukraine by the US. It is all globalist crap that costs a lot of money and makes Neocons political cash from donors. So go ahead and formulate plans and strategies while the debt continues its out of control spiral. At some point a broken down Gubberment with no money won't even provide for home defense. Too smart is called hubris and all I see is misery and bombed out buildings.

Obama and his cross eyed Neocon cousins have left a real legacy.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

djolds1
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by djolds1 »

mvanwink5 wrote:Democracies are 69 cooks making soup. 50 years!!!??? LOL!!! One guy gets in and applies his 'genius' strategy, then the next 'genius' gets in and sees things differently. Get real.... This is the nature of a democracy. How many trillions spent so far in the Muddle East?

Now I imagine I will be told how ignorant it is to not try something, and if only we had done x-y-z and not done a-b-c then everything would have worked out magically.
You're young, aren't you?

Read up in wiki on West Germany (a place that used to exist) and the American garrison in South Korea (a garrison which still exists after 65 years on the ground). Get back to us when your reading is done.

Long-term garrisons of conquests become allies just aren't that unusual.
ladajo wrote:Unfortunately, the Middle East only matters because they have oil and gas. Eventually, they will not matter, and can go back to herding goats and chopping each others' heads off. The RoW needs to wake up and find a way to move away from global levers which connect to the very fabric of developed civilization. Hence Polywell, and others. History has shown that the centralized control by a few of a critical resource for all has not gone well.
Not quite. The ME also matters because it is the geographical pivot point of Eurasia. Virtually everything going east-west and vice versa either needs to pass through the ME, or pass in close proximity to the ME. The Barbary Pirates the place generates are a continual issue, and have been as far back as Caesar (who made friends with a bunch, and then had them crucified).
Vae Victis

mvanwink5
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by mvanwink5 »

LOL! You are being argumentative if you can't see the vast difference between spending xx years in Europe vs the ME. Europe is a country club. And S Korea just incase you forget it is Christian.... and no 'outpost'. You are a detail military man, you can't see the difference, or you think others are weak minded?

Your ME genius strategy is a cluster #$%@. And training those guys how to fight! You are out of your mind. In the end you will lose the argument due to the shear cost, while leaving the country with a broke military. Won't be long, we are at 20 trillion, wake up and smell the coffee.

Whatever.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

ladajo
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Re: Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

Post by ladajo »

Not quite. The ME also matters because it is the geographical pivot point of Eurasia.
It matters for this much less than it used too. And for the record, Barbary Pirates were in the Med.
While Suez, Red Sea, and Bab-el-Mandeb remain an important global chokepoint, this is mostly irrelevant to the contemporary adventures of the Persians v. Arabs. They are focused north of this. The most important chokepoint today is Malacca.
With an oil/gas wind down in the Peninsula, the maritime traffic in the region will drop dramatically.

Land routes via the ME went out of fashion a very long time ago. There is also the increasing traffic in the arctic across northern Asia. While still nacent in comparison to other global routes, it is growing. How much it grows, and how sustainable it will be is another discussion. But it is impacting the Suez route with every hull that runs north, vice central.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

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