Polywell = WMD?

If polywell fusion is developed, in what ways will the world change for better or worse? Discuss.

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jlumartinez
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Post by jlumartinez »

If ,at last, Polywell is a viable reactor do you think that Navy will share this technology so easily?. I am not sure, at least in the first years. If they are developing this reactor is because they will try to take a gap forward. We will have to wait longer to see Polywell feeding the electrical grid

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

jlumartinez wrote:If ,at last, Polywell is a viable reactor do you think that Navy will share this technology so easily?. I am not sure, at least in the first years. If they are developing this reactor is because they will try to take a gap forward. We will have to wait longer to see Polywell feeding the electrical grid
I trained at A1W in Idaho.

It was designed to pump power into the grid if necessary. I was there in '65 and the plant had been around for 8 or 10 years.

So yes. I do believe it will be used for power from day one.

The thing to remember is that the Navy will not be able to keep these to themselves once they are powering ships.

In addition they are a strategic weapon in getting us off oil. It will be widely shared - in America first.

rexxam62
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Post by rexxam62 »

MSimon

Listen my friend. And I mean that, You are my friend we both want to make Polywell Fusion into a reality. So no matter your political views I will respect them. But listen very carefully to me. America is about 300m people and America consumes 25% of world output petroleum in a day. Europe is 500m people and consumes 25% of the world output petroleum in a day to. Can you now try to imagine what will happen when the people in China and India wants the same standard of living? It just does not add up does it?

And to the question of puncturing their economies. Dude! Screw em. You Americans dont freakin need them. :D I want to totaly puncture them. The next oil is going to be the fruits of thinking and come out of a lab. That way nobody can take it away from us. Combine Fusion if it works with 100% electrical cars like the Tesla Rodster and voila you can really screw up the middle east. And we should do that. We need to free ourself.

Forget hybrid plugins look at this:

Tesla Motors
http://www.teslamotors.com/

100% Electric
0 to 60 mph in about 4 seconds
135 mpg equivalent
over 200 miles per charge
less then 2 cent per mile

Tesla Rodster Acceleration
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqUjATkpQ6E

//Rexxam62

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

You mention 200 mi/chg

At what speed?

BTW a 200 mi/charge means a round trip range of 60 mi with a reserve.

You can't actually use the 200 mi range to get some where 150 mi away. Unless you have arranged to have a charger there in advance.

rexxam62
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Post by rexxam62 »

MSimon wrote:
rexxam62 wrote:MSimon

Listen my friend. And I mean that, You are my friend we both want to make Polywell Fusion into a reality. So no matter your political views I will respect them. But listen very carefully to me. America is about 300m people and America consumes 25% of world output petroleum in a day. Europe is 500m people and consumes 25% of the world output petroleum in a day to. Can you now try to imagine what will happen when the people in China and India wants the same standard of living? It just does not add up does it?

And to the question of puncturing their economies. Dude! Screw em. You Americans dont freakin need them. :D I want to totaly puncture them. The next oil is going to be the fruits of thinking and come out of a lab. That way nobody can take it away from us. Combine Fusion if it works with 100% electrical cars like the Tesla Rodster and voila you can really screw up the middle east. And we should do that. We need to free ourself.

Forget hybrid plugins look at this:

Tesla Motors
http://www.teslamotors.com/

100% Electric
0 to 60 mph in about 4 seconds
135 mpg equivalent
over 200 miles per charge
less then 2 cent per mile

Tesla Rodster Acceleration
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqUjATkpQ6E

//Rexxam62
First off. America produces around 40% of its own oil.

Second off you are leaving out price. Of oil and cars. Price changes the amount of available oil.

The Tesla is a tad pricey. In addition it is a sports car. Not exactly your ideal vehicle for the soccer mom.

I agree things are headed in the right direction. However, the transition will take time. We are not going to have 500 million electric vehicles in the world day after tomorrow.

So we have to think about transition plans. How do we keep the oil flowing until we are in a position to do without.

Without a feel for logistics (magnitudes) it is hard to get a handle on the real problem.

BTW Europe buys less oil because it is more compact.
If soccer moms can affoard SUVs they can afford electrical cars. Japanese and European auto manufacturers have started talking about making 100% electrical cars. If American auto manufacturers does not get on this train kiss GM/F goodbye forever. Btw I think its to late for them anyway. And please dont let your politichians screw up Tesla Motors because that is probably the last hope for America to get a profitable car manufacturer. The Tesla is selling like butter in sunshine. Believe me prices will come down and the next generation lithium ion batteries will be even better and cheaper. Again to hell with all oil producing nations. The future is these technologies.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

There is a shortage of Lithium in the world for the kind of roll out you advocate.

Patience.

As far as I am aware there are no all electric SUVs on the market.

This is going to be a 20 or 30 year transition.

We will need oil to see us through.

I'm sure you are right about the Tesla selling great. What would that be 100 a month?

PMN1
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Re: Polywell is a terrorists nightmare.

Post by PMN1 »

ANTIcarrot wrote: 1) The middle east is economically dependent on the world buying it's oil. What woudl happen to the OPEC nations if demand for this export were slashed? The collapse of economies, and the nations those economies prop up, could turn the entire area into an extremest holiday camp. Even better, they woudl have a 'reason' to despise the west; even more than they do at present.
Which is going to happen anyway given their inability to reduce population growth.

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Demog ... plode.html


Demographics Of Africa And The Middle East Continue To Explode


by Hichem Karoui

UPI Outside View Commentator
Paris (UPI) Apr 12, 2006

Some analysts have been focusing on the economic and demographic pressures that drive the Middle East towards terrorism and extremism. The threat is driven by forces that are generational, rather than limited to a few years:

The Middle East and North Africa are a long-term demographic nightmare. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that the Middle East is a region where the population will nearly double between now and 2030. The total population of the Gulf has grown from 30 million in 1950 to 39 million in 1960, 52 million in 1970, 74 million in 1980, 109 million in 1990, and 139 million in 2000. Conservative projections put it at 172 million in 2010, 211 million in 2020, 249 million in 2030, 287 million in 2040, and 321 million in 2050.

The Middle East and North Africa, or MENA, region had a population of 112 million in 1950. The population is well over 415 million today, and approaching a fourfold increase. It will more than double again, to at least 833 million, by 2050.

The need to come firmly to grips with population growth is all too clear. Some of the most important, and sometimes troubled, countries in the region will experience explosive population growth. Algeria is projected to grow from 31 million in 2000 to 53 million in 2050. Egypt has a lower population growth rate than many of its neighbors, but is still projected to grow from 68 million in 2000 to 113 million in 2050.

The Gaza Strip is projected to grow from 1.1 to 4.2 million, and the West Bank from 2.2 to 5.6 million. Iran is estimated to grow from 65 to 100 million, and Iraq from 23 to 57 million. Morocco is projected to grow from 30 to 51 million. Oman will grow from 2.5 to 8.3 million. Saudi Arabia will grow from 22 to 91 million, and Syria from 16 to 34 million. Yemen's population growth rate is so explosive that it is projected to grow from 18 to 71 million.

Population growth is creating a "youth explosion." This growth has already raised the size of the young working age population ages 20 to 24 in the Gulf area from 5.5 million in 1970 to 13 million in 2000. Conservative estimates indicate it will grow to 18 million in 2010 and to 24 million in 2050. If one looks at the MENA region as a whole, age 20-24s have grown steadily from 10 million in 1950 to 36 million today, and will grow steadily to at least 56 million by 2050.

The World Bank estimates that some 36 percent of the total MENA population is less than 15 years of age, versus 21 percent in the United States and 16 percent in the European Union. The ratio of dependents to each working age man and woman is three times that in a developed region like the European Union. The U.S. State Department has produced estimates that more than 45 percent of the population is under 15 years of age.

Population growth presents major problems for infrastructure. Major problems now exist in every aspect of infrastructure from urban services to education. At the same time, population pressure is exhausting natural water supplies in many countries, leading to growing dependence on desalination, and forcing permanent dependence on food imports. Demand for water already exceeds the supply in nearly half the countries in the region, and annual renewable water supplies per capita have fallen by 50 percent since 1960 and are projected to fall from 1,250 square meters today to 650 square meters in 2025 -- about 14 percent of today's global average. Groundwater is being over pumped, and "fossil water" depleted.

Much of the region cannot afford to provide more water for agriculture at market prices, and in the face of human demand, much has become a "permanent" food importer. The resulting social changes are indicated by the fact that the percentage of the work force in agriculture has dropped from around 40 percent to around 10 percent over the last 40 years. At the same time, regional manufacturers and light industry have grown steadily in volume, but not in global competitiveness.

Employment and education will be critical challenges to regional stability. The Gulf already is an area where approximately 70 percent of the population is under 30 years of age and nearly 50 percent is under 20. It is also a region where real and disguised unemployment averages at least 20 percent for young males, where no real statistics exist for women, and where the number of young people entering the work force each year will double between now and 2025.

This creates an immense "bow wave" of future strains on social, educational, political, and economic systems whose effect is compounded by a lack of jobs and job growth, practical work experience, and competitiveness. The failure to achieve global competitiveness, diversify economies, and create jobs, is only partially disguised by the present boom in oil revenues. Direct and disguised unemployment range from 12-20 percent in many countries, and the World Bank projects the labor force as growing by at least 3 percent per year for the next decade.

Hyper-urbanization and a half-century decline in agricultural and traditional trades impose high levels of stress on traditional social safety nets and extended families. The urban population seems to have been under 15 million in 1950. It has since more than doubled from 84 million in 1980 to 173 million today, and some 25 percent of the population will soon live in cities of one million or more.

jlumartinez
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Post by jlumartinez »

"Life is a fight for energy" (Ludwig Boltzmann, 1886)

rexxam62
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Post by rexxam62 »

We dont need to sit here and feel sorry for middle east or oil producing countries. If we find a disruptive technology for oil we should use it and puncture them. That is capitalism. Adapt or die.

If it creates chaos in their countries and they try to take it out on Israel just neutron bomb them. Even if America and Europe wont need Middle East in the future EU/USA will back up Israel so its no problem.

If they have population growth problems they should just do what china did and put population growth laws into place that will force the population down.

JoeStrout
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Post by JoeStrout »

rexxam62 wrote:If they have population growth problems they should just do what china did and put population growth laws into place that will force the population down.
Or, they could educate and empower their women. Either would work.

Seriously though, polywell reactors could be the best things that ever happened to these countries. Much of their land is desert, and there's not enough fresh water. Polywell energy could make desalination affordable, allowing them to irrigate their deserts, and build up a stable native agriculture, which is a good foundation for a stable economy in general.
Joe Strout
Talk-Polywell.org site administrator

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

rexxam62
We dont need to sit here and feel sorry for middle east or oil producing countries. If we find a disruptive technology for oil we should use it and puncture them. That is capitalism. Adapt or die.
I find I'm in total agreement with this.

Their problem is that they have a culture that is not very adaptable.

rexxam62
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Post by rexxam62 »

MSimon wrote:rexxam62
We dont need to sit here and feel sorry for middle east or oil producing countries. If we find a disruptive technology for oil we should use it and puncture them. That is capitalism. Adapt or die.
I find I'm in total agreement with this.

Their problem is that they have a culture that is not very adaptable.
Thank god we agree MSimon because you know so much about fusion I dont want you and me to be enemies on here. :D

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

rexxam62 wrote:
MSimon wrote:rexxam62
We dont need to sit here and feel sorry for middle east or oil producing countries. If we find a disruptive technology for oil we should use it and puncture them. That is capitalism. Adapt or die.
I find I'm in total agreement with this.

Their problem is that they have a culture that is not very adaptable.
Thank god we agree MSimon because you know so much about fusion I dont want you and me to be enemies on here. :D
I can stand ignorance, I'm hell on stupidity.

We may disagree on subjects, you are not stupid. BTW another part of not being stupid is the willingness to change your mind in the face of solid evidence. Fortunately I like eating crow - when appropriate.

BTW logistics is a subject not much studied, but critical to engineering.

Changing our fueling system is going to take time. To do it in 20 years from today (assuming we know Polywell would work) would be a miracle. My guess is 30 years would be fast and 40 or 50 years reasonable.

BTW are you in touch with the Israeli Physics community? They really should get on this. In a supporting role just to have their hand in.

I have mentioned Polywell to Nir Shaviv but it didn't Light His Fire. I have also contacted a few Institutes. Not even the courtesy of a reply. What is with Israelis? I do know some who are not rude. Roni Golan the artist for instance. His new gallery is a few blocks from me.

PMN1
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Post by PMN1 »

rexxam62 wrote:
If they have population growth problems they should just do what china did and put population growth laws into place that will force the population down.
Anyone in the west who tries suggesting that is shouted down as an imperialist or a racist and thats just from the left wingwingers in the west, phrases like genocide get mentioned by those in NA and the ME along with the lines - 'Islam encourages large families'.

rexxam62
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Post by rexxam62 »

MSimon

I do not live in Israel anymore and I probably wont move back ever. But I know what you are talking about. Many Israelis have this 'I am better then all other jews' attitude.

Predicting the future and timetables is impossible due to the fact that something can happen tomorrow that changes the whole predicted image. Progress is also not linear anymore its more like exponential. In the next 30 years you will see so much progress you cannot believe it.

PMN1

Islam is not a race. So if you criticize it you are not a racist. Just like criticizing Israel is not being anti semitic.

Anyway I will try only to chat about the technicals and engineering of polywell from now on. I want to try to stay away from religion and politics.

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