First tier, second tier

If polywell fusion is developed, in what ways will the world change for better or worse? Discuss.

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CharlesKramer
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First tier, second tier

Postby CharlesKramer » Fri Jan 03, 2014 4:03 am

If fusion is successful as a source of electricity that is clean, cheap, and decentralized (p-11b without needing big capital investment for steam and turbines) EVERYTHING will change.

Cheap electricity would:

-- substitute for natural gas for electricity and heating

-- help provide feedstocks for industry -- including cheap hydrogen (from cracking water) to provide fresh water from cracked seawater, ammonia from hydrogen + atmospheric nitrogen, aluminum and other metals by electrolytic processing, and zillion other things and combinations.

-- cheap ammonia also makes a good transportation fuel

The first tier of changes are possible to guess:

-- no more coal, no more fracking

-- the global warming debate ends

-- competition for mid-East oil stops

-- many major concerns (peak oil, acid rain, Fukushima) become obsolete

And the cheaper and simpler fusion boxes are to build, the more than happens over-night -- in years, not decades, perhaps.

And probably many more (any suggestions)?

I think the second and tertiary consequences are impossible to determine. Every first tier change will have dozens of sequela. For example, coal becoming obsolete will initially harm (even kill) the railroads that exist mostly to transport coal. But cheap electricity might make super-fast super-conducting levitation trains practical.

All probably more fodder for a science fiction imagination than for a computer model or mere futurist.

- CBK
================================
CBK
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ltgbrown
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Re: First tier, second tier

Postby ltgbrown » Sun Jan 05, 2014 9:26 am

Think about shipping. You could build a 50 kt ship that doesn't need to be refueled for months, years even. How about a space station with hundreds of mega watts of power available?

Think about negotiations with Iran. "You say it is about energy production. How about we give you a fusion reactor and you give us all your fission fuel." What could they possibly say to that?

Think about Europe, specifically Ukraine, and the leverage Russia has over them. It disappears completely in just a decade, along with over half of the Russian economy.

Think about developing countries where electricity is incredibly expensive. Fusion now becomes part of our foreign aid packages that leads to greater stability and therefore economic opportunities.

As you said, everything would change, if fusion can be done cheaply. ITER is not cheap but pretty much a sure bet. Polywell is cheap, but (at least publicly) an unknown bet. Same with Focus Fusion and GF and some others. So, its not just fusion that will change everything, its cheap fusion. So, if you can burn PB11 cheaply, then everything changes and the changes will happen quickly. If you can't do it cheaply, then everything will change, but it happen much more slowly. The reasons to embrace fusion would then become logistical (fewer hazardous materials and smaller fuel requirements) and political (its safer, easier to fuel (think energy independence), and doesn't feed weapons production, i.e. Iran) reasons, vice economic.

In another post, there was a comment (I am paraphrasing) that China's economy can incorporate new technology faster due to its top-down directed nature. I would disagree. If something is an incredible economic advantage, a market driven economy can incorporate it significantly faster because you have so many factions working to find ways to utilize it, vice a single entity at the top. It is important here because if fusion can be done cheaply, then the countries of the world with market based economies will incorporate it (and therefore benefit from it) faster and deeper than countries with a top-down driven economy. If you can't do fusion cheaply, then that will reverse unless the political will exists to put in place the regulations and taxes in the free markets to make the not-cheap fusion be the economical choice. Right now, I don't see that kind of political will existing here in the US. It might exist is Europe. But not in South America, Africa, Southeast Asia, etc. So, China and Russia (top-down driven economies) and some middle eastern countries (specifically UAE) maybe, will end up leading the incorporation of fusion into their economies.

I believe (to use a word with religious connotations) that cheap fusion burning PB11 is not that far away and I am excited to be alive to see it.
Famous last words, "Hey, watch this!"

ladajo
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Re: First tier, second tier

Postby ladajo » Sun Jan 05, 2014 12:57 pm

The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

mvanwink5
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Re: First tier, second tier

Postby mvanwink5 » Sun Jan 05, 2014 4:21 pm

I realize most folk's first thoughts go to fossil fuel, but my first thoughts go to fresh water and the impact is agriculture.

For economic transitions, just the option of fusion will cause a crash in oil prices as Oilpeck will loose control of their members as they try to unload as much oil before prices crater. Socialist countries like Venezuela exist only by subsidy of their oil. Imagine how the Marxist dream will do without oil dollars. So, political and economic impacts won't wait for actual rollout.

All it takes is one successful dark horse fusion method to succeed and money will jump at the competing approaches. Personally, my 2 cent bet is on GF as it is the only approach that I have seen recent progress information. I expect net fusion hardware investment cash to be committed in 2014 predicated on full scale plasma compression tests reaching net fusion plasma injector targets (Q1 2014?). Even VC funding commitments for net fusion hardware will shake the ground, especially if it is GF as their approach controls investment risks. If GF gets the last full scale component (plasma injector) proven, since VC's are already committed to go for net fusion hardware with proven full scale components, it will be a shock to ITER crowd, the water mellon energy cronies (solar, wind), and dreamers of one big green socialist world government.

I think 2014 will be the exciting year. I am betting my full 2 cents on it.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

ladajo
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Re: First tier, second tier

Postby ladajo » Sun Jan 05, 2014 4:30 pm

I don't know about this year, but I am thinking within the next three it will be clear.

But you are correct, the privates are pushing ahead, and if they build any momentum, such as GF is seeming to portray, step aside.

It will be interesting to see what happens with ITER if a Dark Horse pulls ahead.

I also agree that the oil economies will be seeking to maximize what they can. But they are not dummies, and there is enough corruption in the system that they should be able to sustain for a bit artificially, then drop like a duck hit with birdshot.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)

What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

KitemanSA
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Re: First tier, second tier

Postby KitemanSA » Sun Jan 05, 2014 4:31 pm

Of course, if the ARPA-E grants bear fruit...
http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/01/arpa-e ... of-up.html

ladajo
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Re: First tier, second tier

Postby ladajo » Sun Jan 05, 2014 4:34 pm

Cross post from the Rossi thread.

To be clear, ARPA-E is not focusing on LENR. It is but a single mention in a large category. What concerns me about this is that it is not for basic research, but development. And $500K ain't squat for real development.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)

What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

mvanwink5
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Re: First tier, second tier

Postby mvanwink5 » Sun Jan 05, 2014 4:56 pm

I think Rossi is sub-fringe, wasteful controversy, best left in its relegated topic. Consider this just my opinion.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

ladajo
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Re: First tier, second tier

Postby ladajo » Sun Jan 05, 2014 6:50 pm

Yes, I did not mean to drag the idiot in here. Just pointing out that Kite's link was over there as well courtesy of Rossibot Axil.

No more mention here.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)

What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

CharlesKramer
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Re: First tier, second tier

Postby CharlesKramer » Wed Jan 08, 2014 12:11 am

================================
CBK
Blog: http://www.provideocoalition.com/ckramer

CharlesKramer
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Re: First tier, second tier

Postby CharlesKramer » Wed Jan 08, 2014 12:17 am

================================
CBK
Blog: http://www.provideocoalition.com/ckramer

mvanwink5
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Re: First tier, second tier

Postby mvanwink5 » Wed Jan 08, 2014 12:54 am

CK,
Think replacement of natural gas and oil for electric generation just for a start. Aluminum and titanium are heavy electric power consumers. Russia will be fine, it is socialist countries that depend on oil pumped out of the ground to tankers sitting in their harbors expecting a check that will have one more straw added on their proletariat camel's back.

Prosperity is dependent on free market organization of economies. Modern economies are too complex for totalitarian, socialist, heavily regulated, bureaucratic controlled, big government strangled societies. As long as people think government is the solution to anything not even cheap fusion power will help. Heck, Chavez was having trouble getting oil to the waiting ships in port, and food rotted in his warehouses while the shelves were bare. So, he arrested the shop owners. It won't take much to finish those guys off, they barely can keep their cities from falling down.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

prestonbarrows
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Re: First tier, second tier

Postby prestonbarrows » Wed Jan 08, 2014 2:52 am

Last edited by prestonbarrows on Thu Jan 09, 2014 1:54 am, edited 2 times in total.

CharlesKramer
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Re: First tier, second tier

Postby CharlesKramer » Wed Jan 08, 2014 8:28 pm

================================
CBK
Blog: http://www.provideocoalition.com/ckramer

CharlesKramer
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Re: First tier, second tier

Postby CharlesKramer » Wed Jan 08, 2014 8:40 pm

================================
CBK
Blog: http://www.provideocoalition.com/ckramer


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