Polywell and the grid

[KitemanSA]

We currently have about 2% of our power from renewables that would need a backup system (either batteries of some kind or a "smart Grid" that can dynamically route power). If/when this percentage grows we would absolutely need a smart grid. However we need one right now and we will when BFRs provide all the power.

Well, you see, here is where we part company. I don't think we need a "Smart Grid" now. We could use a change in government policy to permit TOD/TOY metering, but that hardly needs a SG.

[KitemanSA]

As I said, I think a cell phone model is much better...My contract has peak and off-peak minutes. Unlimited off-peak and limited (and more expensive) on-peak. I could see paying a flat rate for x# of kilowatts (NOT KW/H).. Then have an added price for any load above the base (on a sliding scale as usage goes up). Under this plan a person COULD purchase a subscription to cover any possible load they could need OR they could do a much cheaper base-load of eat the overages.

That is the current general model for cell phones, but even the cells are changing toward a flat rate. But in either case, neither of those models need a SG. Dominion Power in Virginia, which does not have a SG, charges for energy, TOD energy, average power, AND peak power, all with just a nifty meter, no SG, just meter.

Any "smartness" to the grid that the Power Companies develop for good business reasons is just fine with me. Not NEEDED, just beneficial. Let them pay for it!

[KitemanSA]

Even under a subscription service a smart grid may still be necessary.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion.

I don't think it is likely that a subscription power plan will develop. The major reason is that half the cost of power is delivery. Even if BFR's reduced the cost of generating the power to almost nothing, the overall cost would only drop by 50%.

This is precisely why I think it will, in some form. The more the infrastructure costs control the equation, i.e. the less the marginal cost of the kWhr, the more reason to go simple subscription. Will it be an overnight deal? Of course not. But if Polywell (or something similar) works as hoped, I think it inevitable.

In addition, most BFRs will probably be D-D fusion with a thermal cycle rather than PB11 with direct conversion. PB11 due to scaling requirements will need to be large plants 1+ GW to be economical.

This I don't get at all. In transition, maybe a number will replace the coal heat source with a BFR source, but...

D-D plants can be much smaller 100-500 MW. Due to transmission costs, there aren't many places that a 1+ GW plant makes sense. Whereas 100-500 MW plants are MUCH smaller and could be brought in closer to the load, making them more economical in may situations.

Cheap, clean Gigawatt plants make sense in many places. 10/100 GW, maybe not, but as long as we want to have aluminum (aluminium to those who speak British rather than American), then there will be a call for areas with base-load type power plants at peak time capacities. What then happens is that the aluminum industry becomes a massive variable load. It is quite a marriage between the two industries.

In current thermal cycle plants (Coal) the equipment to manage the steam and generate the power costs more in terms of maintenance than the boiler...by a lot. This price is not going to change with a BFR.

If the price of the "boiler" and the price of the BFR are comparable, then the cost of the fusion power should be significantly lower, because the price of the coal is NOT neglegible.

All this being said, the BEST we could really hope for with BFR is a 50% reduction in the cost of power and my guess is 25% is more likely.

Ok. Still supports conversion toward a subscription model.

At the same time, there will always be load balancing issues. Currently the US power companies waste TRILLIONS in spare capacity a year to cover unexpected demand. This has absolutely nothing to do with variable power generation inherent in renewables. This will not change if BFRs replace all conventional Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas and diesel power generation.

Actually, it can. In the Pacific NW and in the Tennesee Valley, the hydro-electric power production capacity so far outweighed the need that those areas had what amounted to base-load power systems for the peak power need. So what happened is that the aluminum industry moved in and provided a very granular, very responsive sink for the excess capacity. Polywell could do that too. If it is cheap enough, then the full capacity can be base-load priced, and some electricity intensive industry will soak up the differential need.

All this means that a vanilla subscription service (like home phone) is unlikely. I think a cell phone type subscription is much more likely. So you will be charged one rate for your base line usage and once you go over your KW/H limit you get a higher per/KW/H cost. I can also see a higher price for peak since it will always cost more to provide power then due to system stress.

This model would almost certainly be an intermediate step. But IF, and I repeat IF the Polywell works as hoped, eventually the simple subscription model will out for residential and smaller business customers. IMHO.

Where as local generation of power (especially solar) would dramatically help reduce transmission costs since it tends to peak production at peak demand. This will reduce the size of the power lines that must go into a heavily populated area and make power production MUCH cheaper.

Ok, but other than folks building many miles from existing power lines, why would one care if the power available from clean, local Polywell covered the need at base-load like prices, or lower?

Finally, renewables especially solar voltaic are dropping in price dramatically while at the same time, battery tech is improving fast making it cheaper to store power. As these trends continue, it is likely that an off the grid solar system could be cheaper than even a BFR pB11 plant for a low power single family home.

Non-sequitur. We are talking grid, not non-grid. Non grid uses of solar in no way effect the need for a smart grid.

A smart grid which would allow some demand shaping (turning of ACs for a few minutes, delaying appliances and managing charging of electric cars) will be necessary to keep costs down even if BFRs powered everything. This is a fundamental problem of centralized power generation and the source of the power will NEVER change this.

For things like ACs, the plentiful subscription power hoped for from Polywell would cover the issue without SG. For charging cars, either they are like ACs (trickle charging) or they are massive short term loads. In the first case, SG not needed. In the second, SG questionably effective. Low input high output, short term storage systems like Smart Matrix (tm) are the answer, and again SG not NEEDED. Beneficial? Probably. And if sufficiently beneficial, the utilities will develop it. Till then, let it be.

About the only way a simple subscription is likely is if every neighborhood had its own dirt cheap 100 MW BFR and every house had a day or two of battery backup (also cheap).

Can you say "strawman"?

All this being said, I can't wait for BFRs to be proven and developed. it WILL lead to a reduced cost and will allow us to grow the economy without risking our health and international safety in the process.

Concur absolutely.

[kunkmiester]

you need to consider the relative cost of the direct conversion approach veses the steam plant.

Unless the steam plant is already there. The big idea here is to convert existing coal plants. This means that the turbines are already paid for, you're just buying the reactor.

My impression was that 100MW-1GW plants would be built closer to where the power is needed, eliminating the need for long power lines. This means the grid would become a small, independent system, with little need for outside help(you'd build several smaller plants, to allow you to service one occasionally, and also for redundancy). This means a big part of current smart grid plans--switching power between regions--goes out the window.

[D Tibbets]

you need to consider the relative cost of the direct conversion approach veses the steam plant.

Unless the steam plant is already there. The big idea here is to convert existing coal plants. This means that the turbines are already paid for, you're just buying the reactor.

My impression was that 100MW-1GW plants would be built closer to where the power is needed, eliminating the need for long power lines. This means the grid would become a small, independent system, with little need for outside help(you'd build several smaller plants, to allow you to service one occasionally, and also for redundancy). This means a big part of current smart grid plans--switching power between regions--goes out the window.

I don't know how things would scale, but if you assume that you have three plants, with two online at any time, that means you have to build in 30% excess capacity. With long distance transmission lines, perhaps there would be 10-15% losses (?). Less costly plants are needed, while presumably the cost to build the longer lines costs less. Also, this model (local independent networks) can be built to handle expected down times. They would have little or no capacity to handle unexpected problems like storms, accidents, etc. unless you built in a lot of redundancy and excess capacity locally, which would have to cost a lot more than sharing resources on a larger grid.

Dan Tibbets

[BenTC]

I think a working Polywell will produce a greater need for a SmartGrid. More industries will be able to install Polywell's onsite, but their load wont exactly match the purchased unit. Then they will want to export excess energy to the grid.

Traditionally, plant scheduling, moving energy around and power protection systems have been co-ordinated by a single entity. I would expect that a larger amount of distributed embedded generation into a de-regulated market will stress the traditional grid in a big way. A SmartGrid of some kind will be essential to allow this scenario to work reliably. Further, population centres are getting denser with greater power requirements, however often the ability to expand existing transmission line right of ways is limited and new right of ways are not possible. I expect that usage of HVDC will increase to uprate the power capacity of existing power corridors.

[KitemanSA]

... but if you assume that you have three plants, with two online at any time, that means you have to build in 30% excess capacity.

50%?

[KitemanSA]

Folks,

I think we may all have a different understanding of what a "Smart Grid" is and why it is desired. Until there is a meeting of the minds on that, we wont even understand what the others are writing.

Good luck defining it.