Since I have two minutes, here are my humble predictions

[Skipjack]

These are provided that the Bussard Fusion Reactor meets all expectations.
It will take some 10 to 15 years until the first reactors go online. Meanwhile some more improvements will be made to the thing.
General Electrics, Mitsubishi and Siemens file several patents for improving the efficiency of BFRs.
China copies all of them anyway and does not give a darn.
The Japanese work on minaturization and automatization.
After 18 years prices for electricity will fall to the magical 3 cents KWh. This is the point when even with the currently inefficient and expensive batteries, electric cars get a lot more interesting for the average person (at that point it really costs almost nothing to drive that car).
The first ones to go all electric will be public transportation. It is already done with subways and trains as well as "streetcars" (here in Austria we have little trains that go on the street, hope thats the right word), but by then busses will go all electric too. It is cheaper and busses can easily be left to charge for a longer time.
Wallmart offers a "charge your car for free, while you shop".
On the prospect of plummeting gas prices speculators sell their shares in oil like crazy, middle eastern countries produce more oil trying to get it all sold before its worth nothing anymore.
This causes oilprices to fall to 30USD/barrel or below.
This will have the effect that for another while it will stay economic to have gasoline cars, at least for another while.
Shares of companies that produce (? mine? extract? no idea...) B11 will skyrocket. It will be a "Bor - Com" boom as some will call it.

In 25 years from now all larger ships will be equipped with BFRs, all ships that would have been nuclear powered today anyway. That includes aircraft carriers, large warships, submarines and also superfreighters and supertankers (there will still be oil produces and consumed all over the world, this change wont go THAT fast).
First preliminary design studies for BFR powered space ships will emerge. Probably by Lockheed Martin or Boeing. 1 year later Burt Rutain rolls out Space Ship 10 which is powered by a BFR and transports 400 willing tourists on an all inclusive tripp arround the moon. Just kidding, Burt Rutain will probably be to old by then, so it will be Elon Musk who actually does that

15 years and multiple delays and cost overruns later Lockheed and Boeing will finally have their BFR powered spaceships ready too. But NASA wont be interested anymore, they have been buying rides on Burts, ahem, Elon's Spaceships for the last ten years.
40 years from now Electric cars will be the norm, gas powered cars will be something for enthusiasts and weirdos. Some rich people will proudly drive their oldtimers arround the block on sundays. They will have to drive an hour to find a gasstation though, but if you own a Rolls Royce, you are the time man...
Thanks to low demand for gas, gas prices will be lower than ever. That also means that flying will be cheaper than ever before. Most airplanes will still be very much like they are today and powered by kerosine. There will be some studies on how to use polywells or electricity for air transport. Some airlines will also use hydrogen since the cheap electricity makes hydrogen production more cost effective and hydrogen more competitive to kerosine.
Some maybe not so good sideeffects will include the total decline of the solar power and windpower industry.

So what do you think?
Realistic? Way off?

[JohnP]

It will take some 10 to 15 years until the first reactors go online.

Really? These things could't be fast-tracked? I was thinking more like 5-10 years.

Meanwhile some more improvements will be made to the thing.
General Electrics, Mitsubishi and Siemens file several patents for improving the efficiency of BFRs.
China copies all of them anyway and does not give a darn.
The Japanese work on minaturization and automatization.

Sounds about right.

After 18 years prices for electricity will fall to the magical 3 cents KWh.

Don't think so. The utilities have infrastructure they have to pay for. BFR's would gradually displace older reactors but it would take a while to significantly cut into the price of electricity.

This is the point when even with the currently inefficient and expensive batteries, electric cars get a lot more interesting for the average person (at that point it really costs almost nothing to drive that car).
Wallmart offers a "charge your car for free, while you shop".

Don't think so.

On the prospect of plummeting gas prices speculators sell their shares in oil like crazy, middle eastern countries produce more oil trying to get it all sold before its worth nothing anymore.
This causes oilprices to fall to 30USD/barrel or below.
This will have the effect that for another while it will stay economic to have gasoline cars, at least for another while.

Sounds reasonable to me.

Shares of companies that produce (? mine? extract? no idea...) B11 will skyrocket. It will be a "Bor - Com" boom as some will call it.

The world won't need that much B-11. Worldwide demand might be a couple railroad carloads per day, at most. Isn't that the point? The market for electricity is huge, but the market for fusion fuel will be vanishingly small.

So what do you think?
Realistic? Way off?

Yes.

[Skipjack]

The world won't need that much B-11. Worldwide demand might be a couple railroad carloads per day, at most. Isn't that the point? The market for electricity is huge, but the market for fusion fuel will be vanishingly small.

Yes, thats why I compared it to the DotCom boom. I think will be kinda of a soapbubble.
Though I am pretty sure that a BFR will use pretty much as much B11 per MW/h as a fission reactor uses Uranium. That is a very very speculative guess though, based on very sketchy data
I do think that most of the B11 we have is actually a waste product from the production of B10 which is used for capturing neutrons?
I wonder how many tons a year that really makes and how expensive it will get once it is not only seen as a waste product...

[Skipjack]

Really? These things could't be fast-tracked? I was thinking more like 5-10 years.

These things have to be approved. Then you have to face god knows what tests and discussions and so on and I am pretty sure that it will take at least 10 years for the first reactor to actually put power into the public grid. Military and research facilities might have one online earlier.

Don't think so. The utilities have infrastructure they have to pay for. BFR's would gradually displace older reactors but it would take a while to significantly cut into the price of electricity.

You are probably right, but it is 18 years (5 to 8 years after the first reactors go online), if you think how much higher the electricity prices got in the same time, why not imagine them to get lower too. Also electricity is as oil also traded like a good with prices regulated by the market. Other alternative methods might help reducing the price as well.
I do admit though that it is probably to optimistic.

[MSimon]

The world won't need that much B-11. Worldwide demand might be a couple railroad carloads per day, at most. Isn't that the point? The market for electricity is huge, but the market for fusion fuel will be vanishingly small.

Yes, thats why I compared it to the DotCom boom. I think will be kinda of a soapbubble.
Though I am pretty sure that a BFR will use pretty much as much B11 per MW/h as a fission reactor uses Uranium. That is a very very speculative guess though, based on very sketchy data ;)
I do think that most of the B11 we have is actually a waste product from the production of B10 which is used for capturing neutrons?
I wonder how many tons a year that really makes and how expensive it will get once it is not only seen as a waste product...

B10 is the waste product from extracting B11 from natural boron. B11 is used in semiconductor production.

If you figure 4 MeV per fusion (to account for losses) the amount of B11 for 100 MW is easy to figure.

1 ev = 1.60217653E-19J/ev
Avgadros number = 6.0221415e23

1 Fusion = 4e6 ev * 1.60217653E-19J/ev = 0.000000000000640870612 j/fusion

1e8j/s = 1e8/0.000000000000640870612 = 156037736990192959573 Fusions/second

Divide that by avgadro's number and you get 2.5910672638660675703744605935596e-4 grams a second

*3600 *24 = 22 grams a day (I think I dropped a decimal place - some one check my work)

I forgot to multiply by the weight of B11. That would come out to about 250 grams a day. About 1/2 pound. 10,000 - 100MW plants could supply all USA electricity. About 2 1/2 tons a day.

[Scupperer]

~3 days power in a can!

(not my best work; I'll clean it up later).

[JohnP]

Divide that by avgadro's number and you get 2.5910672638660675703744605935596e-4 grams a second

*3600 *24 = 22 grams a day (I think I dropped a decimal place - some one check my work)

I forgot to multiply by the weight of B11. That would come out to about 250 grams a day. About 1/2 pound. 10,000 - 100MW plants could supply all USA electricity. About 2 1/2 tons a day.

Your math checks out and agrees roughly with a BOE I did a while back for D-D, about a liter of heavy water/day for a gigawatt reactor.

[Skipjack]

So roughly 900 tons a year. Does not sound to much indeed. I thought it would be more. Thanks for the calculation Msimon.

[choff]

If it works, this time will be looked back upon as the end of the stone age and the beginning of the golden age.

[blaisepascal]

22 grams a day (I think I dropped a decimal place - some one check my work)

I forgot to multiply by the weight of B11. That would come out to about 250 grams a day. About 1/2 pound. 10,000 - 100MW plants could supply all USA electricity. About 2 1/2 tons a day.

I get:

Code: Select all

blaisepascal@hacek:~$ units '100MW / 4MeV / avogadro * 11g/mol * 1day'
	Definition: 0.24625502 kg

It looks close enough for me.

[Roger]

In 25 years from now all larger ships will be equipped with BFRs, all ships that would have been nuclear powered today anyway.

The HMS Cornwall that missplaced those 15 sailors, is a Frigate, 486 ft in length, 48 foot beam, about the size of a Arliegh Burke, a much newer design, is 509x59, a destroyer.

[Skipjack]

The HMS Cornwall that missplaced those 15 sailors, is a Frigate, 486 ft in length, 48 foot beam, about the size of a Arliegh Burke, a much newer design, is 509x59, a destroyer

Ok, sorry I do not quite understand what you are trying to say. You are quoting me and then you say this, but I do not understand what your point is...

[Mumbles]

Ok, sorry I do not quite understand what you are trying to say.

I am guessing he is trying to make the point that if the Polywell really works, it won't just be the larger ships (current nuclear type) that get them. Even what are called "small boys" in the frigate and destroyer class are big enough that you could put 1 or 2 BFRs in there, have an electrical propulsion system (and accompanying electric weapons systems!), and GET RID OF THE FUEL CONSTRAINTS! for cruising wherever you want to go.

If you don't think this is a big deal for the Navy, I would offer you need to re-think your position.
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Then, all we would have to worry about would be aviation fuel (and some reserve fuels for auxiliary motors/generators). (But with an unlimited supply of electrical power, I would think someone could overcome that and create an electrical-to-liquid fuel process to supply the aviation needs?)

And to throw emotion into the mix, just refer to the USS Cole. The whole reason it was in Yemen was to refuel...
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Yes, there will be a size constraint below which we could not put a BFR on a ship. Whether that is a corvette class, or smaller, we won't really know until we get a working Polywell. Until then, please realize that just like this is a
Game Changer" for the civilian world, it is also a game changer for the Navy. And that is probably why we are funding it...

Be Safe
Mumbles

[Skipjack]

Oh yeah, I agree it is important and a big deal for the navy. That is what I said after all! I am not quite sure how large a ship has to be to acommodate an polywell that produces enough power. One also must not forget that you need specialists to operate this thing. This is expensive and might not make sense for to small a vessel. But hey, I wont argue if someone wants to put it into a small vessel.

[Mumbles]

I am not quite sure how large a ship has to be to accommodate an polywell that produces enough power.

Tell me how big the BFR is, and I will accommodate that space in the design of the ship. Most "Small Boys" (frigates and destroyers) in the U.S. Navy today are powered by LM-2500 gas turbine engines. 2-4 per vessel. $1Mill+ each (I don't know the real number, could be several million each). And they are basically jet engines, gulping gas down at prodigious rates...

One also must not forget that you need specialists to operate this thing.

I would think that a BFR will be fairly automated. Since the response time is on the order of micro- to milliseconds, there will be a computer really controlling the reactor. Kind of makes it a turn-key operation.

I did post a thread asking about whether a BFR could be throttled, and how much power/energy would it take to light one off from cold iron (or at least base vacuum conditions) a while back, all with my focus on figuring out shipboard operations. I think the answer was we really don't know yet (for engine throttling), but think it will be possible. And a reasonable sized aux generator, possibly with a flywheel storage for pulsed high-amp start-up needs, should be able to kick one off from cold start.

And if we decide we really DO need specialists, the Navy already has nuclear trained personnel who run light-water reactors which are significantly more complex than (my understanding of) a BFR in operation...

This is expensive and might not make sense for to small a vessel.

Yes, there will be a trade-off. But the reduction in operational costs for fuel will be tremendous. Will you put BFRs in luxury yachts? Maybe. Maybe not... But for a service vessel (commercial OR military) of sufficient size, I think you will find many people jumping at the chance.

My 2 cents.

Be Safe
Mumbles