2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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Skipjack
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby Skipjack » Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:39 pm

ladajo wrote:I think part of the issue we are seeing is that real scientists doing real science and research on how to solve the problem are not business men or marketing experts in any sense. That means that those who can market and talk money intelligently (not your average good scientist) do not garner funding nearly as well (or at all in some cases) as the salesmen. I think this is a a dilemma in the private funding arena.

Unfortunately this is true. Most engineers and scientists I know are crappy sales people. They are not good at talking BS. Nowadays a sales person has to be an excellent liar and use completely overblown numbers, especially to interest business people. They already assume that is what people do and thus divide the numbers they get by 3 (or more). Now most good engineers use conservative estimates and safety margins in their calculations. So they do just the opposite.

ladajo wrote:Back in the day it was government support via educational institutions and the eventual creation of the FFRDC concept in support of national defense and national advancement. However, that system too has fallen to political corruption.

Indeed it has. Lobbying is killing everything in favor of the big players.

ladajo wrote:Is it a crowd funding methodology that goes beyond the current scales and support systems? I think so, and am eager to explore this idea. America is the largest per-captita donor country in the world. Imagine tapping this resource to advance humanity vice provide free-stuff and band-aid services. (Okay, we could probably do both). Think of it as self-directed tax spending. I have come to think it is one of the only ways to escape the drama of politically managed money in pursuit of vote buying in DC. Plus, it is tax deductable... :)

I am very skeptical of crowd funding for engineering projects like these. It did not work very well for LPP...

ladajo
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby ladajo » Thu Aug 14, 2014 9:00 pm

I think that the issue is the audience that pays attention to "crowd funding" and the scaling capabilities of the existing constructs.

Like I said, we need to figure out a way to tie together the reach of donation constructs with the directability of crowd funding mechanisms but in such a way that it can handle 100 million dollar endeavors.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

mvanwink5
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby mvanwink5 » Fri Oct 17, 2014 8:18 am

Well, it looks like 2014 isn't a 'Trifecta Year,' however, clearly it is the year where the race has hit the 'air waves' and where next level funding becomes the real hurdle, perhaps overshadowing the hard science of fusion.

(Rant - skip)
Funny when you think about it as that big hurdle is $10's of millions as compared to the projects Uncle Sam backs that complain when $Billions are not fully met. Then there is the ruckus over 'Global Warming' where $Trillions in sacrifice are demanded daily, yet, fusion which would solve that touted debacle as promised by these 'small cost' (relatively) fusion projects, scrap and beg for funds...

Comments:
LM, out of the closet with the big splash, patents filed, can't tell if they are looking for funding partners or development partners (difference?), $?
Helion, has staged funding ($1.5M milestone staged to $30M) in place up to their big machine
General Fusion, big TED splash, has heavy duty fund backing
EMC2, patents filed, has two halves of the science, but needs both halves together at the same time, needs $30M funding
Dynomak (completely new on the race course to me, not listed previously), needs $30M funding
Tri-Alpha (dark as ever), has heavy duty funding
LPP, struggles to get funding, used crowd sourced funding that did not make it to goal, but still trudging along, needs a breakthrough this year...
Sorlox (not a peep)

Not on the list:
LENR has no peer reviewed theory of operation, has dubious reputation,
Muon has no known commercial fuel source
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

Skipjack
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Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:29 pm

Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby Skipjack » Fri Oct 17, 2014 4:27 pm

mvanwink5 wrote:Tri-Alpha (dark as ever), has heavy duty funding

Tri- Alpha has actually released more information this year than ever before. Quite a few papers and presentations were released. They are working on an upgraded machine right now as well. This will start tests in 2015.

mvanwink5 wrote:LPP, struggles to get funding, used crowd sourced funding that did not make it to goal, but still trudging along, needs a breakthrough this year...

We they did get the funding for the Beryllium electrode.
I have to say though that their crowd funding results were absolutely sad, especially when compared to nonsense like "solar roadways" or entertainment related products.

mvanwink5 wrote:Sorlox (not a peep)

I think they currently don't have funding.

mvanwink5
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby mvanwink5 » Fri Oct 17, 2014 5:19 pm

Skipjack,
They are working on an upgraded machine right now as well. This will start tests in 2015.
Article or private source? Machine size upgrade?
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

Skipjack
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Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:29 pm

Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby Skipjack » Fri Oct 17, 2014 7:09 pm

mvanwink5 wrote:Skipjack,
They are working on an upgraded machine right now as well. This will start tests in 2015.
Article or private source? Machine size upgrade?

There you go!
http://www.pppl.gov/events/colloquium-m ... c-2-device

mvanwink5
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby mvanwink5 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:52 am

Skipjack,
Well, that shines the light on Tri-Alpha. Very much appreciated! By work starts on C2U in February and has to wrap up by summer 2015.

I guess you could say that they are working the problem, no show stoppers, but work, money, and patience. Hard working bright people. Fusion is a tough nut to crack.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

Ivy Matt
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby Ivy Matt » Thu Oct 30, 2014 4:20 am

I hadn't seen this until just now:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/10/update ... rcial.html

Brian Wang gives his projections on the prospects for eight fusion concepts, six of which are being researched by private companies. He places them in the following order, apparently based on time to commercial production, available funding, and cost of electricity:

1. LPP Fusion (2017 net gain, 2022 commercial production)
2. Lockheed Martin (2020, 2024)
3. Helion Energy (2017, 2023)
4. Tri Alpha Energy (2017, 2021)
5. General Fusion (2018, 2024)
6. EMC2 (2020, 2026)
7. UW dynomak (2025, 2040)
8. SNL MagLIF (2030, ????)

I'm not sure exactly how he figures the dates. LPP is aiming to demonstrate feasibility in 2015, although at this point that could easily slip to 2016, or later. If they get the ARPA-E funding, however, it might speed things up—or at least keep them from slipping too much. I'm not sure how he figures 2020 for EMC2 demonstrating net gain, either. Probably just an estimate based on a not-too-optimistic, not-too-pessimistic evaluation of EMC2's ability to get investments. Also, I though Sandia was aiming to demonstrate net gain much earlier than 2030. At this point it looks like 2017 might be the year to look forward to. JET is also planning to demonstrate net gain in the years 2017-2020. Stay tuned for the exciting conclusion. :P
Temperature, density, confinement time: pick any two.

mvanwink5
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby mvanwink5 » Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:15 pm

Brian Wang does not always produce a good article. This article falls into that category and thus in many instances the article is a disservice (IMO) as one can't trust any of it. For instance:

"IEC Fusion (EMC2 fusion) has its Navy funding (about $2-4 million per year). As of August 15, 2012, the Navy had agreed to fund EMC2 with an additional $5.3 million over 2 years to work on the problem of pumping electrons into the whiffleball. They plan to integrate a pulsed power supply to support the electron guns (100+A, 10kV). WB-8 has been operating at 0.8 Tesla," which Brian pulled from WIKI :roll:

And Tri-Alpha, which we updated just below "work starts on C2U in February and has to wrap up by summer 2015," source provided by Skipjack (super video!),
http://www.pppl.gov/events/colloquium-m ... c-2-device
shows Tri-Alpha is not that "dark," as Crowberry constantly points out when I say it.

And "General Fusion in Vancouver has its funding with Jeff Bezos and the Canadian Government."
Actually the big investor is the VC firm Chrysalix, which made good money in Canadian oil tar sands projects.
and this is out of date:
"• Plan to demonstrate proof of physics DD equivalent “net gain” in 2013"


I do find good information in Brian's articles, it's just this ain't one of em. The funding side of the dark horse fusion story IMO is pivotal and deserves to be well researched and up to date as it is fast moving. Also project status is dynamic at this point in time and indeed the next 12 months will be exciting. Sorry Brian. :(
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

crowberry
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby crowberry » Sat May 23, 2015 5:46 pm

This week has brought good news for dark horse fusion:
The EMC2 paper will finally be published.
LPPF got $200,000 new funding.
Helion Energy got $3,971,264 ARPA-E Alpha funding.
General Fusion got $27 M new funding.

It will be interesting to see what results come out of their work...

mvanwink5
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Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby mvanwink5 » Sat May 23, 2015 6:02 pm

Waiting for some EMC2 funding now.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

choff
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Location: Vancouver, Canada

Re: 2014 Dark Horse Trifecta Year?

Postby choff » Sat May 23, 2015 7:42 pm

I'm sure a consortium of governments and business could chip into the pot for an intermediate stage polywell, hopefully the June publication will make a big enough splash to raise the scratch.
CHoff


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