TDPerk wrote:https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/95074 ... -on-planet
As the "adjustments" to the data they need to make become more and more obvious, they'll have to keep dialing back their estimates...
...And hope that placates those who want to see them prosecuted for fraud and attempted genocide.
Furthermore, the substantial temperature decreases are expected during the two grand minima47 to
occur in 2020–2055 and 2370–24156, whose magnitudes cannot be yet predicted and need further investigation.
These oscillations of the estimated terrestrial temperature do not include any human-induced factors, which were
outside the scope of the current paper
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3.pdf
Conclusions
Until recently, solar activity was accepted to be one of the important factors defining the temperature on Earth
and other planets. In this paper we reproduced the summary curve of the solar magnetic field associated with
solar activity5,6 for the one hundred thousand years backward by using the formulas describing the sum of the
two principal components found from the full disk solar magnetograms. In the past 3000 years the summary
curve shows the solar activity for every 11 years and occurrence of 9 grand solar cycles of 350–400 years, which
are caused by the beating effects of two magnetic waves generated by solar dynamo at the inner and outer layers
inside the solar interior with close but not equal frequencies6.
The resulting summary curve reveals a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity reported
in the past millennia including the significant grand solar minima: Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), Wolf minimum
(1200), Oort minimum (1010–1050), Homer minimum (800–900 BC) combined with the grand solar
maxima: the medieval warm period (900–1200), the Roman warm period (400–10BC) etc. It also predicts the
upcoming grand solar minimum, similar to Maunder Minimum, which starts in 2020 and will last until 2055.
A reconstruction of solar total irradiance suggests that there is an increase in the cycle-averaged total solar
irradiance (TSI) since the Maunder minimum by a value of about 1–1.5 Wm−2 27. This increase is closely correlated
with the similar increase of the average terrestrial temperature26,43. Moreover, from the summary curve for
the past 100 thousand years we found the similar oscillations of the baseline of magnetic field with a period of
1950 ± 95 years (a super-grand solar cycle) by filtering out the large-scale oscillations in 11 year cycles. The last
minimum of a super-grand cycle occurred at the beginning of Maunder minimum. Currently, the baseline magnetic
field (and solar irradiance) are increasing to reach its maximum at 2600, after which the baseline magnetic
field become decreasing for another 1000 years.
The oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field are likely to be caused by the solar inertial motion
about the barycentre of the solar system caused by large planets. This, in turn, is closely linked to an increase of
solar irradiance caused by the positions of the Sun either closer to aphelion and autumn equinox or perihelion
and spring equinox. Therefore, the oscillations of the baseline define the global trend of solar magnetic field and
solar irradiance over a period of about 2100 years. In the current millennium since Maunder minimum we have
the increase of the baseline magnetic field and solar irradiance for another 580 years. This increase leads to the
terrestrial temperature increase as noted by Akasofu26 during the past two hundred years. Based on the growth
rate of 0.5 C per 100 years26 for the terrestrial temperature since Maunder minimum, one can anticipate that the
increase of the solar baseline magnetic field expected to occure up to 2600 because of SIM will lead, in turn, to the
increase of the terrestrial baseline temperature since MM by 1.3 °C (in 2100) and, at least, by 2.5–3.0 °C (in 2600).
Naturally, on top of this increase of the baseline terrestrial temperature, there are imposed much larger temperature
oscillations caused by standard solar activity cycles of 11 and 350–400 years and terrestrial causes. The
terrestrial temperature is expected to grow during maxima of 11 year solar cycles and to decrease during their
minima. Furthermore, the substantial temperature decreases are expected during the two grand minima47 to
occur in 2020–2055 and 2370–24156, whose magnitudes cannot be yet predicted and need further investigation.
These oscillations of the estimated terrestrial temperature do not include any human-induced factors, which were
outside the scope of the current paper
I would love to hear from climate scientist(s) an answer to the following question; setting aside for the moment the issue of "cooked" earlier data, what percentage of the observed warming they claim is going on is caused by natural climate variation & what percentage is caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions? Don't believe I have ever heard even an approximate breakdown; what is it 80:20, 60:40, 90:10, etc.?williatw wrote:Furthermore, the substantial temperature decreases are expected during the two grand minima47 to
occur in 2020–2055 and 2370–24156, whose magnitudes cannot be yet predicted and need further investigation.
These oscillations of the estimated terrestrial temperature do not include any human-induced factors, which were
outside the scope of the current paper
“Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm,” NASA Global Climate Change reported, according to Pennlive. “Because more factors than just variations in the Sun’s output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today being the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.”
Seems to be a slight difference of opinion on that point:williatw wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 12:52 pm“Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm,” NASA Global Climate Change reported, according to Pennlive. “Because more factors than just variations in the Sun’s output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today being the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.”
NASA scientists fear it could be a repeat of the Dalton Minimum, which happened between 1790 and 1830 — leading to periods of brutal cold, crop loss, famine and powerful volcanic eruptions.
Our sun has gone into lockdown, which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, scientists say.
The sun is currently in a period of “solar minimum,” meaning activity on its surface has fallen dramatically.
Experts believe we are about to enter the deepest period of sunshine “recession” ever recorded as sunspots have virtually disappeared.
Astronomer Dr. Tony Phillips said: “Solar Minimum is underway and it’s a deep one.”
“Sunspot counts suggest it is one of the deepest of the past century. The sun’s magnetic field has become weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system.”
“Excess cosmic rays pose a health hazard to astronauts and polar air travelers, affect the electro-chemistry of Earth’s upper atmosphere and may help trigger lightning.”
NASA scientists fear it could be a repeat of the Dalton Minimum, which happened between 1790 and 1830 — leading to periods of brutal cold, crop loss, famine and powerful volcanic eruptions.
Temperatures plummeted by up to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over 20 years, devastating the world’s food production.
On April 10, 1815, the second-largest volcanic eruption in 2,000 years happened at Mount Tambora in Indonesia, killing at least 71,000 people.
It also led to the so-called Year Without a Summer in 1816 — also nicknamed “eighteen hundred and froze to death” — when there was snow in July.
So far this year, the sun has been “blank” with no sunspots 76 percent of the time, a rate surpassed only once before in the Space Age — last year, when it was 77 percent blank.
