Initial Responses

[sd_matt]

Is this why there is a lot of discussion about gas and liquid fuels from coal?

[kunkmiester]

Pretty much. While the cost of fusion power would allow straight conversion to fuel from water and air(CO2), it'd be even cheaper to convert materials like coal, oil shale and tar sands, and to improve extraction of oil.

[GIThruster]

It's one reason. Gasoline for all it's foibles is a remarkably potent energy source. It's dangerous but not too dangerous. Doesn't need a pressurized vessel. Fantastically cheap and our present motive power infrastructure is designed for it. Those are reasons enough to make gas from coal. Trouble is, you get all the air pollution.

Probably people who think making gas from coal is a good idea just don't understand how much oil is left untapped. There is a lot of misinformation around concerning what's underground and underwater.

[Roger]

If Nebel shows us a net power P-B11 reactor in 6 yrs or so.... Liquid fuels will be niche by roughly 2050. With Solar, Wind and Polywells generating DC, transmitted over HVDC lines.

Scooping out part of Alberta (visible from orbit) for bitumen will be nixed. As will hydrogen based systems. There is plenty enough crude left to take care of applications where gas has the advantage of releasing lots of energy. I just see no long term reason why liquid fuels can compete (in whatever form) on a large scale.

I just dont see any liquid fuel being able to compete in a system where bulk transmission over long distance HVDC lines is buoyed by the trifecta of generating dc from 3 sources. Polywells will probably make solar and wind sources niche in the longer term too.

Sails became quaint after coal, like wise for coal and oil. Likewise for fusion and oil.

[MirariNefas]

I think most people don't consider automotive transport to be a niche application for liquid fuels.

[cksantos]

I think most people don't consider automotive transport to be a niche application for liquid fuels.

A barrel of oil yields these refined products (percent of barrel):
47% gasoline for use in automobiles 23% heating oil and diesel fuel 18% other products, which includes petrochemical feedstock-products derived from petroleum principally for the manufacturing of chemicals, synthetic rubber and plastics 10% jet fuel 4% propane 3% asphalt (Percentages equal more than 100 because of an approximately 5% processing gain from refining.)

[MSimon]

Figuring heating oil at about 3% of production transportation is about 70% of the use of oil. If fuel oil is 13% transportation still accounts for 60%.

[Roger]

I think most people don't consider automotive transport to be a niche application for liquid fuels.

thats now.... I'm talking about 40 or so yrs into the polywell fusion era. 40 yrs of favoring rail transport over air and truck, 40 yrs of R&D in battery and electric motors. 40 yrs of mass transit development.

SO yes, in the fusion era liquid fuels will be niche, otherwise it wouldnt be called the fusion era, it would still be called the era of oil. Is it going to be exactly 40 yrs? of course not.

[MSimon]

Mass transit assumes you have a mass to transit. Forty years of development may not change that.

And given the rate cities are dying (Detroit?, Los Angeles?) and dispersing to the hinterlands, the idea of mass transit looks less likely in 40 years. Of course that could be fixed with internal passports with the appropriate government enforcement......

[Roger]

Figuring heating oil at about 3% of production transportation is about 70% of the use of oil. If fuel oil is 13% transportation still accounts for 60%.

BOE it out 40 yrs, if half of cars are electric.... aviation and trucks lose out to rail, more efficient and rational electric mass transit. Pre stressed concrete vs asphalt. Fertilizer and plastics could see the day when they are the primary crude oil use.

Dont forget a pinch of pie in the sky .....

[clonan]

Mass transit assumes you have a mass to transit. Forty years of development may not change that.

And given the rate cities are dying (Detroit?, Los Angeles?) and dispersing to the hinterlands, the idea of mass transit looks less likely in 40 years. Of course that could be fixed with internal passports with the appropriate government enforcement......

The cities are "dying" BECAUSE of cheap individual transportation. If gas became expensive and all individual transportation (cars) were electric with todays range of 4 miles, you would see the cities grow like never before.

[MSimon]

Half the second cars will be battery operated (in the US). We like that 300 mi range and 5 minute fill up. But a 10 minute recharge station might be possible. So let me see 30 KW hours in 10 minutes only requires a 200 KW service. Say 440 volts at 500 amps. In the rain. Let us hope those carbon nanotube wires get out of the lab pretty quick.

For such technology to be widely dispersed in 40 years it has to be at least a laboratory object.

And a lot of electric service will need to be up amped. And charging stations built. And the stations must not be mfg specific. Is there a standard yet?

Oh. Yeah. Don't forget to cease all charging in a brown out.

Typical transitions like the one you mention take 100 years. We are maybe 10 years in.

[MSimon]

If gas became expensive and all individual transportation (cars) were electric with todays range of 4 miles, you would see the cities grow like never before.

Internal passports and permission to travel offices should do it.

Nice thing about such a system is that once the corruptocrats get in office you are stuck.

[Roger]

M- @100 yrs the transition would be complete?

[KitemanSA]

The cities are "dying" BECAUSE of cheap individual transportation. If gas became expensive and all individual transportation (cars) were electric with todays range of 4 miles, you would see the cities grow like never before.

Cities are dying because the city dwellers are forced thru idiotic taxation to subsidize the sub-urbanites. I fear that not TOO long down the line, massive numbers of suburbanites are going to be rudely awaked to the actual cost of their infrastructure when the city dwellers get smart and stop the subsidies.

Or not. It may be too late.