the ones that get kicked out of the game are going to have to find something else to base their economies on. but with cheap polywell's, focus reactors, whatever, that's no longer as difficult as it was.
I think both yours and Mike's comments while to some degree true, fall short on realizing that in order for the challenged oil economies to move forward they will need cash.
They do not have it.
- but others do. but money is only good for 3 things - stashing away, buying shit with, making more money out of. the otherwise 'challenged' oil economies continue to be (or not) 'legitimate' investment opportunities according to how well they are set up for that, compared to all alternative 'opportunities'.
materials, agriculture, manufacturing, media, etc, etc - all still exist, they don't suddenly cease to be of importance. though it's true, those relying on oil at present really need to be preparing an alternative trump hand. they have been duly warned.
(i am also supposing we are speaking of the 'second world' in this context rather than the 'first world' economies who can also be described as 'challenged' at present - ie. all of us.)
I do currently think that the more diversified econmies will be better off, and especially those with some capital bench depth to shift quickly from oil dominance to fusion. The bigger problem for the challenged economies will be "what next?". A good number of them do not have any viable alternative.
It is also interesting to note that most of the challenged economies are also at the high end of the oil price to make-ends meet neccessity balancing point. This means any drop in cost of oil is going to be very painful.
i agree with you. some 'softening of the blow', 'helping along the way' might benefit some of those affected. others still will simply have to go their own sweet way. (see other discussion below).
i think, as ive suggested to Mike_P above, that those who have forsight should be preparing now. in my estimation, most south american economies are agile enough and new enough in the game. i think that is what you are suggesting also.
the middle east, is still going through (has yet to pass into) it's 'age of reason'. those countries under good/adaptable governance will survive and prosper. those that do not transition will end up as basket cases. some familiar faces i am sure. less bling perhaps.
but demand for petrochemicals is going to continue to be enormous for decades to come. and ironically, i fully expect much of the investment in new fusion infrastructure will come from those same individuals in control of today's oil producing economies. why wouldn't they.
goats on the other hand will be herded in much the same way as they always have been.
I think that the potential fast shift of viable economies towards fusion is goin to be potentially damaging to the point that may lead to some measure of desperation on their parts.
desperate acts of desperate men. i think it just hastens the hour. what should we be on guard for, that we weren't (shouldn't have been) already?
I agree it will not be overnight, but I also point out that given the relative simplicity of some approaches being tabled, as soon as it looks good, it would be very easy to run with it. Some measure of self-limiting containment will occur upfront as folks pay a premium to "be first", but I think that premium will go away quickly as economy of scale factors kick in.
All certainly debatable. As we have a couple of times now.
it's certainly fun to discuss it as a real possibility.
and i agree, i think almost anything 'could' happen. (300$ table-top devices from china seems pretty certain to me). but in reality it will also take time all new cheap energy to translate through to impact on peoples lives. let alone turn a profit.
i see main positive impacts on 'social projects' - eg. municipal power, desalination, irrigation, transportation, etc. and economies of scale all shift, in may industrial models, so lots more opportunities are created, and lots of practical problems cracked. (eg: costs of unemployment in an economy are also lowered.)