Search found 465 matches

by Helius
Fri May 23, 2008 8:25 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Article: 60% of oil price is speculation
Replies: 150
Views: 85592

Shrub's greatest enduring achievement will be moving the country effectively to the Left. Best since Hoover for doing that, and the GOP's current insistence on "market solutions" to the various market meltdowns is only doing it all the more. Therein is the disconnect. The right confuses Adam Smith ...
by Helius
Tue May 20, 2008 3:23 am
Forum: General
Topic: Article: 60% of oil price is speculation
Replies: 150
Views: 85592

Re: Speculation

We're gonna reach about $175 - $200 /bbl in a year or two by best estimates, At what point does a world depression impinge on those estimates ? Or are you refering to the falling dollar, and not the world price for oil ? World price. Goldman Sachs got it right, and they're telling us again. " Earli...
by Helius
Tue May 20, 2008 2:57 am
Forum: General
Topic: Article: 60% of oil price is speculation
Replies: 150
Views: 85592

How ever many layers of complication you like to consider regarding futures and derivatives etc., etc., Oil get mined oil gets burned and made into plastics and the difference goes towards increasing inventories or decreasing them. Whether that oil is waiting to be bought or booked for the future. ...
by Helius
Mon May 19, 2008 4:23 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Article: 60% of oil price is speculation
Replies: 150
Views: 85592

Speculation

I think the whole question of speculation is not bidding up the price of oil in hand but of bidding up the price of oil futures, through futures contracts and in the murky world of futures derivatives. I don't think for a minute this is primarily to blame, however, but just adds to the problem we ha...
by Helius
Sat May 17, 2008 1:40 am
Forum: Fund-Raising
Topic: Other methods to raise money
Replies: 32
Views: 36695

In 1908 the consensus was our Galaxy comprised the entire universe. And they thought they had nearly nailed down all the laws of physics. So? Did they have access to data and inforamation at the time that said otherwise? Instead of looking at an example about when they were wrong, look at WHY they ...
by Helius
Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:41 am
Forum: Implications
Topic: Economic turmoil
Replies: 71
Views: 55784

Positive feedback after a man made increase of C02

Any model or view based on the premise that CO2 levels follow temperature has a huge burden of proof to overcome that always is ignored, and probably impossible to show. OK. Here is a possibility: 1. The oceans hold as dissolved CO2 50X the CO2 in the atmosphere 2. If you heat the oceans they hold ...
by Helius
Sun Apr 27, 2008 5:20 pm
Forum: Implications
Topic: Economic turmoil
Replies: 71
Views: 55784

Yes I do. It's not your classical thermometer, but... anyway - here are my readings. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/antarctica/vostok/vostok_isotope.html You have what everyone else has -- a proxy. Regardless of the "thermometer" used, asserting that there is a relationship between CO2 and ...
by Helius
Sat Apr 19, 2008 1:24 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Atmospheric Models
Replies: 72
Views: 29194

Prediction throuth Chaos.

Chaos dictates that we should put very little faith in climate models. We don't know what all the variables are, much less any details of projecting states in the future through the interrelationship of the variables. We can count on the individual variables, however. We know this: An increase in th...
by Helius
Sun Apr 13, 2008 4:45 pm
Forum: General
Topic: A Green Wants to Reduce the Numbr of Humans on Earth
Replies: 143
Views: 58523

The difficulty I see in raising the standard of living for all is it only gets raised for those with jobs, and that modernisation is all about reducing the number of jobs to reduce costs. Perhaps if you had a way to share things out a little better, you wouldn't end up with so much povety. I think ...
by Helius
Wed Apr 09, 2008 4:58 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Atmospheric Models
Replies: 72
Views: 29194

TallDave wrote:
Yeah, I wonder about that interplay.

It's pretty clear from the fossil record that in the very early days of life on Earth, CO2 levels were much higher ....
The Sun is also 30% hotter than 4 billion years ago.
by Helius
Mon Apr 07, 2008 2:05 am
Forum: General
Topic: Atmospheric Models
Replies: 72
Views: 29194

Thanks for the reading material; intresting stuff. I'll have to get back to it along with the material Simon posted. I see two indicators from Jared Diamond's books that climate warming was more extensive than Europe alone. One is the westward movement across the Canadian Arctic of the Eskimos. The ...
by Helius
Fri Apr 04, 2008 12:52 am
Forum: General
Topic: Atmospheric Models
Replies: 72
Views: 29194

Pretty powerful for a trace gas.

The Mann analsysis was a real eye-opener for me. Much of it turns out to be based on tree growth analysis -- which for some species is actually more sensitive to CO2 than temperature. So they were actually measuing CO2 levels, not the effect of CO2 levels on temp. Also, Mann's "hockey stick" says t...
by Helius
Thu Apr 03, 2008 4:48 pm
Forum: News
Topic: A little bit of news from Alan Boyle @ NBC.
Replies: 18
Views: 18765

That's interesting, I had thought they were already testing. Maybe this interview was done prior to the blog entry, or perhaps Nebel means "testing" in a more formal "official results" sense. Or is it possible they're setting up to do some POPS experimenting in addition to validating the WB-6 data?...
by Helius
Thu Apr 03, 2008 4:01 am
Forum: News
Topic: A little bit of news from Alan Boyle @ NBC.
Replies: 18
Views: 18765

A little bit of news from Alan Boyle @ NBC.

There is a paragraph about Dr. Nebel's efforts. Good, but I thought experiments were underway. As all of us, I get a little steamed about the "pittance" thing....
http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/ ... 51992.aspx
by Helius
Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:10 am
Forum: General
Topic: Atmospheric Models
Replies: 72
Views: 29194

I can't believe the value of an atmospheric model can be in the result; A terrible model is a terrible model even if it agrees accurately with a good one. Similiarly, two good atmospheric models can disagree in the predicted result. Moral: Don't try to predict the weather more than 5 days out. Maxwe...