I addressed EMC2's position (and perhaps Lockheed Skunkworks) as being the most likely to make a splash because they have built a proof of concept machine and tested it.
I think you may be a bit outdated here. General Fusion is probably the only transparent company that has built a proof of concept machine. EMC2 built a machine, gave a little talk, then disappeared. LM Skunkworks says they built a machine in a small talk two years ago, then disappeared. And Tri-Alpha has published a paper or two, along with presentations at conferences on their machine in the last couple of years.
If anything, I'd expect General Fusion to make the biggest splash because they are unafraid of the public and they're working with a concept that has been researched by several university groups and national lab groups. Whereas Polywell was worked on by one tiny group under a NDA and has yet to be picked up by enough university groups to really say more than "hmm, it's interesting and may have potential". And LM is just too secretive for us to even speculate on.
Skipjack wrote:On the whole proliferation thing: As history has shown, it is pretty much impossible to prevent a country from developing nuclear bomb technology, no matter what we try. With alternatives like laser enrichment, this will only become more so. I think that all those many countries that do not have nuclear bombs, do so because of choice, not because of incapability.
It is also cost. Cost to do it. And cost to keep them up.
A nuclear weapon is not a screwdriver or hammer that you make and put on the shelf for years, then pick it up when you need it.
It is a device that requires checks and maintenance that is also not cheap and require knowhow.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)
I addressed EMC2's position (and perhaps Lockheed Skunkworks) as being the most likely to make a splash because they have built a proof of concept machine and tested it.
I think you may be a bit outdated here. General Fusion is probably the only transparent company that has built a proof of concept machine. EMC2 built a machine, gave a little talk, then disappeared. LM Skunkworks says they built a machine in a small talk two years ago, then disappeared. And Tri-Alpha has published a paper or two, along with presentations at conferences on their machine in the last couple of years.
If anything, I'd expect General Fusion to make the biggest splash because they are unafraid of the public and they're working with a concept that has been researched by several university groups and national lab groups. Whereas Polywell was worked on by one tiny group under a NDA and has yet to be picked up by enough university groups to really say more than "hmm, it's interesting and may have potential". And LM is just too secretive for us to even speculate on.
We do not know what we do not know.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)
And to say that they would make the biggest splash on the basis of us not knowing what we do not know about them.. How do you know I don't have a working FRC-based machine next to me? ..
And to say that they would make the biggest splash on the basis of us not knowing what we do not know about them.. How do you know I don't have a working FRC-based machine next to me? ..
asdfuogh wrote:Yes.. that was my point. It's stupid to speculate on "what we don't know that we don't know". Unless you meant something else in that first part.
i think you're the only one doing any speculation here. the other dude was just saying that there's a lot of stuff that we dont know that we dont know. that's not speculation, it's a fact.
Skipjack wrote:On the whole proliferation thing: As history has shown, it is pretty much impossible to prevent a country from developing nuclear bomb technology, no matter what we try. With alternatives like laser enrichment, this will only become more so. I think that all those many countries that do not have nuclear bombs, do so because of choice, not because of incapability.
It is also cost. Cost to do it. And cost to keep them up.
A nuclear weapon is not a screwdriver or hammer that you make and put on the shelf for years, then pick it up when you need it.
It is a device that requires checks and maintenance that is also not cheap and require knowhow.
I also think of countries like Austria where, the majority of the population is against nuclear weapons and would not allow to have any in the country. We have nuclear research facilities and easily could build nuclear weapons, no one in the country wants them. In contrary, we want everybody else to get rid of theirs too! Whether that is the right thing to do or not, is debatable, but that is what the population wants and I know that they feel the same in most European countries with the exception of France and England.
asdfuogh wrote:Yes.. that was my point. It's stupid to speculate on "what we don't know that we don't know". Unless you meant something else in that first part.
i think you're the only one doing any speculation here. the other dude was just saying that there's a lot of stuff that we dont know that we dont know. that's not speculation, it's a fact.
I took his comment to be speculation that Polywell or LM will make the biggest splash because we don't know what we don't know. If that is not the case, then I misunderstood the point of that statement.
It is like Poker. Everyone has cards, nobody knows what the other guy's cards are. To win, you either buy the pot, or you show your cards. In the fusion game, ITER is trying to buy the pot, everyone else can only show their cards when they are ready.
We do not know who has the best hand.
So, to be clear, there are surely things that we don't know that we don't know.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)
asdfuogh wrote:Yes.. that was my point. It's stupid to speculate on "what we don't know that we don't know". Unless you meant something else in that first part.
i think you're the only one doing any speculation here. the other dude was just saying that there's a lot of stuff that we dont know that we dont know. that's not speculation, it's a fact.
I took his comment to be speculation that Polywell or LM will make the biggest splash because we don't know what we don't know. If that is not the case, then I misunderstood the point of that statement.
I think you misunderstood the point of that statement, then. The point was basically that it does us little good to speculate at this point.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)