20 years away, and always will be

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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asdfuogh
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Post by asdfuogh »

I addressed EMC2's position (and perhaps Lockheed Skunkworks) as being the most likely to make a splash because they have built a proof of concept machine and tested it.
I think you may be a bit outdated here. General Fusion is probably the only transparent company that has built a proof of concept machine. EMC2 built a machine, gave a little talk, then disappeared. LM Skunkworks says they built a machine in a small talk two years ago, then disappeared. And Tri-Alpha has published a paper or two, along with presentations at conferences on their machine in the last couple of years.

If anything, I'd expect General Fusion to make the biggest splash because they are unafraid of the public and they're working with a concept that has been researched by several university groups and national lab groups. Whereas Polywell was worked on by one tiny group under a NDA and has yet to be picked up by enough university groups to really say more than "hmm, it's interesting and may have potential". And LM is just too secretive for us to even speculate on.

Betruger
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Post by Betruger »

LPP
You can do anything you want with laws except make Americans obey them. | What I want to do is to look up S. . . . I call him the Schadenfreudean Man.

ladajo
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Post by ladajo »

Skipjack wrote:On the whole proliferation thing: As history has shown, it is pretty much impossible to prevent a country from developing nuclear bomb technology, no matter what we try. With alternatives like laser enrichment, this will only become more so. I think that all those many countries that do not have nuclear bombs, do so because of choice, not because of incapability.

It is also cost. Cost to do it. And cost to keep them up.

A nuclear weapon is not a screwdriver or hammer that you make and put on the shelf for years, then pick it up when you need it.
It is a device that requires checks and maintenance that is also not cheap and require knowhow.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

ladajo
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Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:18 pm
Location: North East Coast

Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Post by ladajo »

asdfuogh wrote:
I addressed EMC2's position (and perhaps Lockheed Skunkworks) as being the most likely to make a splash because they have built a proof of concept machine and tested it.
I think you may be a bit outdated here. General Fusion is probably the only transparent company that has built a proof of concept machine. EMC2 built a machine, gave a little talk, then disappeared. LM Skunkworks says they built a machine in a small talk two years ago, then disappeared. And Tri-Alpha has published a paper or two, along with presentations at conferences on their machine in the last couple of years.

If anything, I'd expect General Fusion to make the biggest splash because they are unafraid of the public and they're working with a concept that has been researched by several university groups and national lab groups. Whereas Polywell was worked on by one tiny group under a NDA and has yet to be picked up by enough university groups to really say more than "hmm, it's interesting and may have potential". And LM is just too secretive for us to even speculate on.
We do not know what we do not know.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

asdfuogh
Posts: 77
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:58 am
Location: California

Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Post by asdfuogh »

We do not know what we do not know.
And to say that they would make the biggest splash on the basis of us not knowing what we do not know about them.. How do you know I don't have a working FRC-based machine next to me? ..

happyjack27
Posts: 1439
Joined: Wed Jul 14, 2010 5:27 pm

Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Post by happyjack27 »

asdfuogh wrote:
We do not know what we do not know.
And to say that they would make the biggest splash on the basis of us not knowing what we do not know about them.. How do you know I don't have a working FRC-based machine next to me? ..
how do you know everyone else doesn't?

asdfuogh
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Location: California

Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Post by asdfuogh »

Yes.. that was my point. It's stupid to speculate on "what we don't know that we don't know". Unless you meant something else in that first part.

happyjack27
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Joined: Wed Jul 14, 2010 5:27 pm

Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Post by happyjack27 »

asdfuogh wrote:Yes.. that was my point. It's stupid to speculate on "what we don't know that we don't know". Unless you meant something else in that first part.
i think you're the only one doing any speculation here. the other dude was just saying that there's a lot of stuff that we dont know that we dont know. that's not speculation, it's a fact.

Skipjack
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Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:29 pm

Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Post by Skipjack »

ladajo wrote:
Skipjack wrote:On the whole proliferation thing: As history has shown, it is pretty much impossible to prevent a country from developing nuclear bomb technology, no matter what we try. With alternatives like laser enrichment, this will only become more so. I think that all those many countries that do not have nuclear bombs, do so because of choice, not because of incapability.

It is also cost. Cost to do it. And cost to keep them up.

A nuclear weapon is not a screwdriver or hammer that you make and put on the shelf for years, then pick it up when you need it.
It is a device that requires checks and maintenance that is also not cheap and require knowhow.
I also think of countries like Austria where, the majority of the population is against nuclear weapons and would not allow to have any in the country. We have nuclear research facilities and easily could build nuclear weapons, no one in the country wants them. In contrary, we want everybody else to get rid of theirs too! Whether that is the right thing to do or not, is debatable, but that is what the population wants and I know that they feel the same in most European countries with the exception of France and England.

hanelyp
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Post by hanelyp »

On one hand, a fusion reactor as a neutron source may make breeding plutonium easier.

On the other hand, a practical fusion power reactor removes an excuse for keeping a stock of uranium and plutonium for "peaceful purposes".
The daylight is uncomfortably bright for eyes so long in the dark.

Skipjack
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Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:29 pm

Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Post by Skipjack »

hanelyp wrote:On one hand, a fusion reactor as a neutron source may make breeding plutonium easier.

On the other hand, a practical fusion power reactor removes an excuse for keeping a stock of uranium and plutonium for "peaceful purposes".
Also a good argument. And again, I am wondering whether laser enrichment is not simpler and more compact anyway.

asdfuogh
Posts: 77
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Location: California

Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Post by asdfuogh »

happyjack27 wrote:
asdfuogh wrote:Yes.. that was my point. It's stupid to speculate on "what we don't know that we don't know". Unless you meant something else in that first part.
i think you're the only one doing any speculation here. the other dude was just saying that there's a lot of stuff that we dont know that we dont know. that's not speculation, it's a fact.
I took his comment to be speculation that Polywell or LM will make the biggest splash because we don't know what we don't know. If that is not the case, then I misunderstood the point of that statement.

ladajo
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Post by ladajo »

It is like Poker. Everyone has cards, nobody knows what the other guy's cards are. To win, you either buy the pot, or you show your cards. In the fusion game, ITER is trying to buy the pot, everyone else can only show their cards when they are ready.

We do not know who has the best hand.

So, to be clear, there are surely things that we don't know that we don't know.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

happyjack27
Posts: 1439
Joined: Wed Jul 14, 2010 5:27 pm

Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Post by happyjack27 »

asdfuogh wrote:
happyjack27 wrote:
asdfuogh wrote:Yes.. that was my point. It's stupid to speculate on "what we don't know that we don't know". Unless you meant something else in that first part.
i think you're the only one doing any speculation here. the other dude was just saying that there's a lot of stuff that we dont know that we dont know. that's not speculation, it's a fact.
I took his comment to be speculation that Polywell or LM will make the biggest splash because we don't know what we don't know. If that is not the case, then I misunderstood the point of that statement.
I think you misunderstood the point of that statement, then. The point was basically that it does us little good to speculate at this point.

ladajo
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Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:18 pm
Location: North East Coast

Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Post by ladajo »

Correct.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

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