Skipjack wrote:[Have you seen this paper? They revised it in February.
https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.05894
It seems to me that the increase of neutron production with the square of deuterium concentration (in accordance with expectations) should be proof enough, no?
Let me state again that I agree with the logic they used to sustain the hypothesis that the neutron flux measured is indeed coming from Deuterium fusion. To refresh my mind today I took the time to revise once more the paper and the video.
In the paper they correctly point out few experimental measurements that support the hypothesis that the neutron flux is coming indeed from fusion occurrences, but for each one of them they prudently (and professionally) restrain themselves to state that it has been experimentally proved.
A) The no signal observed for the 0% Deuterium case:
"This result strongly indicates that the measured scintillator detector signals are from neutron emissions, and are not due to X-rays."
B) The coherent time frame and time span of the measured scintillator flux:
"This sustained neutron emission, coincident with the lack of m=0 and m=1 instabilities, suggests (that) a thermonuclear fusion process may be responsible for the neutron observation, (and) not a beam-target fusion process...."
C) The increased neutron production with increase in Deuterium concentration:
"(The) neutron production results follow the expected nD2 dependence, which provides additional evidence of possible thermonuclear fusion with the deuterium mixture plasmas. However, further investigation is needed to better characterize the energy spectrum of the observed neutrons."
Because of the above findings they correctly stated in their conclusions that it
"indicate consistency with a thermonuclear fusion process" but they didn't give it for granted (and similar statements are made in the video).
In other words, they saw 3 smoking guns and some holes, they expect that there must be bullets shot from these guns to make the holes, but they didn't really see the bullets.
After all scintillators are not direct neutron counters, but indirect detectors generally used for the determination of the upper energy side of the x-ray spectrum, and thus susceptible to measure a plethora of other events.
Even if the scintillator they used was calibrated at the High Flux Neutron Generator (see note 28 of the paper) and used a specific set of models to characterize the incoming flux, the correct interpretation of a scintillator data stream is a matter of great complexity and subject to a great deal of discussions, interpretations and publications among the one expert in the issue. If you want to give a look to these issues there is a 2019 publication that gives a good overview of these complexities and is available
HERE.
The above is what I believe is pushing them to be cautious and even if also for me there is little room left for a different interpretation, I greatly appreciate their not giving for granted something they still didn't officially see and prove. I have strong belief that this will be the first point that they will try to pinpoint with the 2018 grant they received.
Personally this is the way I love seeing science done.
A society of dogmas is a dead society.