Polywell: We'll know in 7 months time?!

[ladajo]

IAW DODINST 5230.24 that is not correct.

The whole point of FOIA is for distros that are not group "A".

Dr. Nebel can not post to the web due to the standard contractual limitation that says he must clear it first with the contracting office.
He can request to post or share info. The Navy must approve it.

[choff]

The final report is for April 2011, but they project to have initial results delivered April 2010 after collecting data in March 2010, that's my reading.
If we hear nothing the whole year through and they stay on schedule, I expect they move on to WB8.1 after April 2010. The only reason to say anything would be to report failure or the early commencement of WB9.

[ladajo]

Nope, you goofed it...

Due Dates:

CLIN 0001 - 30 Apr 2010 (= plasma wiffleball 8 ) - Completion of device build.
CLIN 0002 - 30 Apr 2011 (= Data) - Completion of WB8 testing
CLIN 0003 - 31 Oct 2011 (= Optional WB 8.1) - Completion of optional device build
CLIN 0004 - 31 Oct 2012 (= Optional Data) - Completion of optional device testing

Obviously, they can beat these deadlines, however given Rick Nebel's history of thoroughness...

While they are doing this, they are required to submit monthly updates. This will be the next FOIA Target cause I missed the window I think on the one in the air now. Although I will try to amend the Peer Review Priority to include the latest Monthly update. We shall see.

[KitemanSA]

IAW DODINST 5230.24 that is not correct.
The whole point of FOIA is for distros that are not group "A".

On the whole, true, but AFAIK (which aint far in this subject) they sanitize to make it distro A, then provide it. Heck, it's an archane specialty that is beyond my ken.

[ladajo]

Fair enough, but in this case, I do not think there is much if anything they would feel compelled to redact (the famous black-ink marking pen for our english challenged readers).

Again, the shot is in the air, so we shall see where it spots.
I am learning some things as we move forward and certainly did not enter this as the smart guy. I continue to avoid use of big words, I leave that to my six year old.

[KitemanSA]

Don't get me wrong, I am all in favor of the FOIA request, and will still support you financially if you need to go the full cost route. I just am not all that hopeful we will get anything useful enough to begtin to satisfy the likes of Art and Chris. (Ok, who am I trying to kid? A full, unredacted treatise probably wouldn't begin to satisfy them!)

[MSimon]

Don't get me wrong, I am all in favor of the FOIA request, and will still support you financially if you need to go the full cost route. I just am not all that hopeful we will get anything useful enough to begtin to satisfy the likes of Art and Chris. (Ok, who am I trying to kid? A full, unredacted treatise probably wouldn't begin to satisfy them!)

If there is enough to do preliminary engineering that would be a start.

[choff]

Todays Wikipedia update on the Polywell fusor confirms your interpetation of the time frame.

[KitemanSA]

It should. I wrote it.

[MSimon]

It should. I wrote it.

[KitemanSA]

??

[TallDave]

I can see why there's been some confusion; A001 is the report. WB-8 is 0001 and is supposed to be completed in April.

ITEM NO SUPPLIES/SERVICES QUANTITY UNIT UNIT PRICE AMOUNT
0001 1 Each
plasma wiffleball 8
CPFF
wiffleball 8 in accordance with Statement of Work
FOB: Destination

0001 30-APR-2010 1 N/A
FOB: Destination
0002 30-APR-2011 N/A
FOB: Destination
0003 31-OCT-2011 1 N/A
FOB: Destination
0004 31-OCT-2012 N/A
FOB: Destination

Then, a year later they deliver 0002:

ITEM NO SUPPLIES/SERVICES QUANTITY UNIT UNIT PRICE AMOUNT
0002
Data
CPFF
in accordance with CDRLS
FOB: Destination

and maybe build 8.1

ITEM NO SUPPLIES/SERVICES QUANTITY UNIT UNIT PRICE AMOUNT
0003 1 Each
OPTION plasma wiffleball 8.1
CPFF
upgraded wiffleball in accordance with Statement of Work
FOB: Destination

which they also get a year to play with before delivering this...

ITEM NO SUPPLIES/SERVICES QUANTITY UNIT UNIT PRICE AMOUNT
0004
OPTION DATA for option item
CPFF
In accordance with CDRLS
FOB: Destination

[chrismb]

I just am not all that hopeful we will get anything useful enough to begtin to satisfy the likes of Art and Chris.

I've never yet completely discounted anything. But give me *something* to work on - a few facts and experimental outcomes might be a start! So far we've got 3 blips on a neutron counter for >25 years work. Tokamaks had a lot more positive results by then. Zeta started in 1954, got results, even made some over-enthusiastic press claims, and closed down by 1958. 4 years from start, results, and close.

If timelines are anything to go on, Polywell has turned into another Tokamak fandango. Bussard was criticising 25 years of tokamak research in the early 1980's for taking too long, and invented the Polywell. 3 decades on and...

[TallDave]

So far we've got 3 blips on a neutron counter for >25 years work

Those are just the WB-6 results. IEC devices (including other WB devices) have produced lots of useless neutrons, just like toks.

Tokamaks had a lot more positive results by then.

Tokamaks have no more plausible path to commercial technology than Polywell/IEC, despite tens of billions more in spending. If we had dumped $50B in Polywells over that time with no more progress than we have today then we could say they were doing about the same.

[KitemanSA]

It should. I wrote it.

...

Just what has got you so twisted?