emiller wrote:I am still hopeful that, if its potential for addressing global warming and the lack of any significant nuclear waste can be moved somehow into the national consciousness, it can move out from the shadow of disappointment from the decades of fusion promises unfulfilled. I wrote to the President a couple of years ago, and will again. He may be able to think more about global warming now. I would also like to get publications like Popular Science to pay attention.
Humanity does what's expedient.
Prosperity is energy per capita.
Just about EVERYTHING derives from that most basic of equations. Democracy depends on energy being cheap and distributed, and industrial dominance is a function of cheap energy. Cultural flourishing depends on prosperity. And it's always been so. 5000 years ago "cheap energy" meant slaves; in 19th century Britain it meant coal and wage slaves.
All the other factors -- unionization, political system, national work ethic, economic policy, government regulation, you name it -- are all nearly irrelevant. If energy is cheap there is prosperity -- especially (in a petroleum and natural gas economy) when the same stuff used for energy is also an industrial feedstock and requirement for fertilizer and insecticide.
Fracking oil may briefly -- if it doesn't poison us -- restore the USA to it's historic role as world's larger producer, but fracked oil is a lot more expensive per barrel than the old Texas crude a bubblin' out of the ground with natural pressure, which means it won't bring with it the USA's former industrial dominance.
Fracked natural gas -- if we learn to use it as a oil substitute, for which it is suited for many applications -- may do even more to advance prosperity, because it's cheap. Again, if it doesn't poison us.
I'm not denying the dangers of global warming denial, only pointing out that humans are really really good at denying things -- especially when there are more immediate crises at hand.
I never expect Obama (and Steven Chu) to be responsible for curtailment of expenditures on fusion -- or for private capital (which could easily fund 10,000 Polywells, or 100,000 Dense Plasma Focus machines) also to drop the ball. And reverse field, and Tri-alphas or whatevers.
But neither of them are idiots.
Makes me wonder what they know, and what they're thinking. The understandable) pessimism about fusion is not likely the only answer.
Unless it is.