Any official news as of late July 2008?

[OneWayTraffic]

been two weeks now...

I'm not even getting hints from my usual sources. The drums are silent.

I think that if this project was an utter failure, we'd know about it by now. The question is: How much of a not utter failure was it?

[MSimon]

been two weeks now... :?

I'm not even getting hints from my usual sources. The drums are silent.

I think that if this project was an utter failure, we'd know about it by now. The question is: How much of a not utter failure was it? :wink:

I think the best hint we got on that was rnebel's comment that the results would be "nuanced". Which I take it means positive but not spectacularly so.

Or maybe they ran something other than D-D and we will get no reports of neutrons. So there will be interpretation.

[rj40]

The contract ends, what, August 22nd? So give the reviewers till the end of the fiscal year, September 30th, to complete and submit their review. So we hear something in October, maybe.
We (the world) sure need this thing to work. I have a sinking feeling though that things are not good. What most of us hope for, I think, is a recommendation to perform more research AND attempt the net power device. But I am starting to think this thing will turn into this:

http://www.moller.com/

One of those things someone works on for decades, but that never really “takes off.”

[MSimon]

The contract ends, what, August 22nd? So give the reviewers till the end of the fiscal year, September 30th, to complete and submit their review. So we hear something in October, maybe.
We (the world) sure need this thing to work. I have a sinking feeling though that things are not good.

I think they are better than not good and worse than great.

Let me add that I was expecting a report a week or two ago. Something is holding it up IMO. Maybe they are negotiating with the Navy a new contract extension for the next phase.

Perhaps the delay is political - i.e. after the conventions. Or maybe something else.

All I can tell you is that my usual sources have dried up. Totally. Not even idle chat. The last e-mail I got from Rick was almost a month ago and had nothing to do (directly) with Polywell. Tom Ligon has had nothing to say. Of course he has signed an NDA so he couldn't say any thing any way. The best he could do for me was to repeat Rick's "nuanced". I didn't press it.

Since I haven't signed an NDA I am free to speculate. But the material I have to work with is way too sparse to even guess. And as you know I am not adverse to wild leaps into the unknown.

In any case if one of you finds something on the 'net please send Instapundit a link. He wants something to post as bad as we do.

[rj40]

I’ll bet we need to wait until after the elections for things to settle. Maybe March or April. So whatever the results, nothing may happen until then.

[choff]

Part of the problem they have with announcing the results is that no matter how by the book they do things, any criticism to date is just the calm before the storm. If the results are positive expect a thousand bloodthirsty tokamakers to descend on Santa Fe with pitchforks and torches.

The peer review commitee will be put to the rack and thumbscrewed until they recant the heresy, repent and return to the true fold.

On the other hand, if it didn't work, oh well, at least they tried.

[rj40]

But if the methodology is adequately documented and the results are repeatable, maybe that will help?

I have a feeling that a net power device will need to be demonstrated and replicated by others before everyone believes. I posted a question to Art Carlson and didn’t get a reply. Well, I may have gotten one as part of his answers to others, but plasma physics is so far beyond me, I get a nose bleed.

Did he believe that the current device was capable of convincing him that a net power device was worth the attempt? And what short of a net power device *would* convince him? That is to say, what are the top results that he would need to see demonstrated that would convince him (again, short of actual net power)?

Now that I really think about it, he actually may have answered all of these as part of his posts to others, and I may have been unable to understand the answers.

If he did, perhaps someone can interpret for a “civilian?”

[choff]

Even with well documented methodology, they're probably still going to get the Fleischmann and Pons treatment times ten. It's a case of the world isn't ready. I got the impression in the last MSNBC report both Nebel and Kulchinski were interviewed at the same time/place, possibly Santa Fe. That would mean maybe the peer review is going on right now.
I would nominate Art Carlson for the peer review, because he's a darn good physicist and a healthy skeptic.

[scareduck]

Even with well documented methodology, they're probably still going to get the Fleischmann and Pons treatment times ten.

Who deserved what they got, publishing results by press release before they got into a peer-reviewed journal.

One of the principle criticisms of the Polywell is that the underlying physics haven't been properly vetted, or that it rests on ignoring things we already do know about plasmas.

[TallDave]

My guess is they got exactly what they expected: a good wiffle-ball tested with helium, and later neutron counts from deuterium comparable to WB-6. I remember Tom saying it looked they'd done a lot to ensure good counts, so I'd be surprised if they never ran d-d.

I would imagine they are now either doing or preparing for peer review.

As for "nuanced" I think some people may be reading a bit too much into that.

Nebel said it's way too early to talk about the answers to those questions. For one thing, it's up to the project's funders to assess the data. Toward that end, an independent panel of experts will be coming to Santa Fe this summer to review the WB-7 experiment, Nebel said.

"We're going to show them the whole thing, warts and all," he said.

Because of the complexity, it will take some interpretation to determine exactly how the experiment is turning out. "The answers are going to be kind of nuanced," Nebel said.

Do you guys remember when Art Carlson first showed up here? He immediately raised several complex points that made perfect sense from a LTE plasma physics background, we tried our feeble best to address them, then Nebel would show up and place things in an entirely new context (I don't think I ever understood one of his answers without first looking up several terms and concepts) which explained how Polywell could get around the problem -- with appropriate caveats where problems exist or answers are unclear.

When they talk about the answers for the experts being nuanced, I'm guessing that just means there will similarly complex discussions in the peer review, esp. regarding the uncertainty of how the results would scale to a larger machine.

Hopefully, the discussions beyond that center on whether we should shoot for a WB-100 or do more validation on a smaller machine and how either would be paid for, rather than whether to stop funding this line of research.

[scareduck]

I think they are better than not good and worse than great.

Let me add that I was expecting a report a week or two ago. Something is holding it up IMO. Maybe they are negotiating with the Navy a new contract extension for the next phase.

Perhaps the delay is political - i.e. after the conventions. Or maybe something else.

All I can tell you is that my usual sources have dried up. Totally. Not even idle chat. The last e-mail I got from Rick was almost a month ago and had nothing to do (directly) with Polywell. Tom Ligon has had nothing to say. Of course he has signed an NDA so he couldn't say any thing any way. The best he could do for me was to repeat Rick's "nuanced". I didn't press it.

A lot of things it could be. If you're Nebel, to get to the next step you have to be sure to cross every last T and dot every last I (well, maybe not the capital ones . Of course, it could also be that Bussard jumped the gun and let his enthusiasm get the better of him, and it's time to look at other things.

I have read elsewhere that Nebel has said he wanted to get Polywell off government money as soon as possible, though I have no attribution for that.

[Robthebob]

Sorry to beat a dead horse, but has anyone got any news?

I still dont understand how the peer review works, hope everything is going well, I'll just go back to learning my modern physics, yay for isolating Gamma of the Lorentz Transformation.

[zbarlici]

Perhaps the delay is political - i.e. after the conventions. Or maybe something else.

Well i`ll tells you that the US loves to have their military superiority. With a working beefer they could build shitloads more carriers & destroyers and REALLY prove their dominance on waters...

Ok... so say we hear nothing of the peer review, or even if its negative we can`t really know the truth IF they want to keep it a secret for the previously stated reason. But this also means they don`t care to help the world reverse its dependence on oil, & don`t care about the state of being of humanity.

Would the US be capable of doing such damage to ensure its dominance?... or would it make more sense for them to go about it in an economic manner by going public with it and making the huge amount of money on royalty fees.?

[ZenDraken]

... it could also be that Bussard jumped the gun and let his enthusiasm get the better of him, and it's time to look at other things.

All I can tell you is that my usual sources have dried up. Totally. Not even idle chat.

The total information blackout suggests that the news is good, perhaps really good. If the news was bad it wouldn't be so "hot". Also, if it's good news I'm sure Nebel and all involved are being *really* careful about the whole process. They don't want anything to trip this up.

Yes, total speculation. Yes, I'm getting my hopes up.

...With a working beefer they could build shitloads more carriers & destroyers and REALLY prove their dominance on waters...

No demonstration needed, we already have it. But we need to make sure we keep it even when everybody else has "beefers" ("boofers"? "buffers"?) too.

[Barry Kirk]

Continues pacing and wearing out carpet.....

Happy that good news travels slower than bad news...

My SWAG is the following....

If the news was good, everybody in the lab would have a lot of incentive to keep their mouths shut to avoid spoiling it.

If the new is bad, somebody in the lab would have spilled it by now...

But I have no idea if I'm right or wrong.