Crunching the numbers

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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ladajo
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Post by ladajo »

Joseph Chikva wrote:
ladajo wrote:Dude. Weapons grade material does not magically pop out of the ground or fall from the sky. You have to make it. You also have to be able to assemble it into a usefull device. Making a small enough weapon that can be mounted to a rocket or artillery shell is not easy.
Easy or not easy. Feasible. And quite successfully done in many places already.
Really? How many places would that be? I hardly think it is "many".

I count four for sure, probably five, possibly eight total. Does that make many? I don't think so. Especially when you recognize that of the five core, one lead the charge, helped two directly, and involuntarily helped two others, where level of technology for at least one is still questionable. As for the maybes, level of technology is certainly questionable, with one exception, and quantities are on relative terms very limited when compared to the two lead nations.

US - Quantity yes, Quality yes
Russia - Quantity yes, Quality more than likely yes, but with caveats.
UK - Quantity no, Quality yes
France - Quantity no, Quality yes
China - Quantity no, Quality medium to poor.
India - Quantity not at all, Quality no
Pakistan - Quantity not at all, Quality no
Israel (? Probable yes) - Quantity (if so) not at all, Quality probably yes
North Korea (? Probable no, marginal yes) - Quantity count on fingers,
Quality not at all (no proven test).
Iran (? ahh, nope) - Quantity none, Quality none

Countries choose not to for various reasons, one of the main ones being it is really friggin expensive, the other being it is hard. Some choose to mask these considerations with, "we don't like them".

So where is your many? Out of the more or less 200 States in the world today, there are seven known, one strong probable, and one weak probable, and one wannabe.
Easy or not easy. Feasible. And quite successfully done in many places already.
Not at all Joseph. Please show me your list of states that have "quite successfully" completed the nuclear weapons cycle to include sourcing raw material, manufacture of it to weapons grade material, and subsequently developed & implemented it in designs for rocket mounted and artillery shell weapons.

I really think you do not understand how many hoops one must jump to execute a nuclear weapon program.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Netmaker
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Post by Netmaker »

ladajo wrote:
Joseph Chikva wrote:
ladajo wrote:Dude. Weapons grade material does not magically pop out of the ground or fall from the sky. You have to make it. You also have to be able to assemble it into a usefull device. Making a small enough weapon that can be mounted to a rocket or artillery shell is not easy.
Easy or not easy. Feasible. And quite successfully done in many places already.
Really? How many places would that be? I hardly think it is "many".

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.
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I really think you do not understand how many hoops one must jump to execute a nuclear weapon program.

I'll accept that a nuclear weapons program is expensive. Keep in mind though that North Korea, one of the most destitute countries in the world, has been able to come close to/actually has produced a nuclear weapon and apparently the cost is not so exorbitant as to preclude many other countries from doing so. It's more likely a matter of political will than it is a question of absolute cost. As reinforced by the success of two other relatively destitute countries - India and Pakistan.

Then there are those countries that started and abandoned their weapons programs - South Africa, Argentina, Brazil who probably could have succeeded and those that have a highly educated enough workforce to probably succeed if they desired - Singapore, Indonesia, Taiwan...

As far as rockets and artillery shells are concerned, why even go to the effort when for many targets a ship or a truck would be just as effective? And have the added benefit of not immediately advertising where the weapon came from.

Recall that both the Fat Man and Little Boy weapons were not even tested before being used and that they were produced with relatively primitive industrial facilities and without the use of computers.

I recognize that there's a huge difference between a country building primitive weapons and shipping them to their targets versus the sophisticated weapons systems they might be measured against.

The people/city on the receiving end are probably not going to be terribly concerned about those differences.

Joseph Chikva
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Post by Joseph Chikva »

ladajo wrote:China - Quantity no, Quality medium to poor.
So, are you stating that China can not make quantity? The country that is even US creditor.
And from what are you stating about their "Quality medium to poor"?

Joseph Chikva
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Post by Joseph Chikva »

Netmaker wrote:I recognize that there's a huge difference between a country building primitive weapons and shipping them to their targets versus the sophisticated weapons systems they might be measured against.

The people/city on the receiving end are probably not going to be terribly concerned about those differences.
Thanks. You said the same as me. But in much better English.

kunkmiester
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Post by kunkmiester »

There was plenty of nuclear work on computers during the Manhattan Project. Granted your pocket calculator is more powerful, but it was done.
Evil is evil, no matter how small

ladajo
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Post by ladajo »

I'll accept that a nuclear weapons program is expensive. Keep in mind though that North Korea, one of the most destitute countries in the world, has been able to come close to/actually has produced a nuclear weapon and apparently the cost is not so exorbitant as to preclude many other countries from doing so. It's more likely a matter of political will than it is a question of absolute cost. As reinforced by the success of two other relatively destitute countries - India and Pakistan.
The driving factor is expense, which is compounded by complexity. The countries that gave it up did so due to expense and return on investment. Once you have weapons, you must also maintain them, and that is also not cheap. I agree, there are more countries that could pull it off if they chose to (Japan, Korea, Germany, etc.), but the expense is not worth it for them. Also remember that Political Will is directly related to Money/Resources. In some places they are one in the same.
North Korea had applied an exhorbitant amount of the GNP towards these efforts for how many years now? And what have they really accomplished? I am curious to see how the next test goes. If it comes off like the previous, they will again re-affirm they are not really there yet.
India is certainly not destitute. They also have not produced many weapons. Pakistan found the motivation in "Do or Die" regarding the idea that India would have and they would not. Pakistan also had some help. But at the end, the also have a minimal inventory, and do not have the means to really make more.
Then there are those countries that started and abandoned their weapons programs - South Africa, Argentina, Brazil who probably could have succeeded and those that have a highly educated enough workforce to probably succeed if they desired - Singapore, Indonesia, Taiwan...
See above. It was really a matter of cost verses return. They got into it without really knowing what the end costs would be. Once it starting mounting up, they had a Come to Jesus on whether or not it was worth it. Do some reading on this, it will enlighten you. (Not meant to be snarky).
As far as rockets and artillery shells are concerned, why even go to the effort when for many targets a ship or a truck would be just as effective? And have the added benefit of not immediately advertising where the weapon came from.
Juvenile Weapons designs are relegated to this anyway. And yes, folks have already thought of this approach. Even packaging for an air drop is not easy. Big heavy device means big heavy airplane. Making smaller devices that can be deployed from actual combat aircraft that have a chance of getting there is another thing again.
Recall that both the Fat Man and Little Boy weapons were not even tested before being used and that they were produced with relatively primitive industrial facilities and without the use of computers.
Not true, and not true. You have leapt without looking.

The Trinity test was a validation of the Fat Man Plutonium Design. Little Boy U-235 was not tested due to previous lab work which indicated it would have no issues. The other drama was that there was not alot of U-235 at Weapons grade at that point. They were sure enough it would work they dropped it first. In the event it did not, they knew for sure Fat Man should pop just fine given Trinity. A more interesting question you should ask yourself is how many other weapons did we have right after the Trinity, Hiroshima & Nagasaki uses?
I recognize that there's a huge difference between a country building primitive weapons and shipping them to their targets versus the sophisticated weapons systems they might be measured against.
Well yes, but the point you are still not grasping is just how hard it really is to get the first viable one built. And then to take that further to miniturization and delivery technologies is like doing the whole thing over again, but even more expensive.
The people/city on the receiving end are probably not going to be terribly concerned about those differences.
Well, actually they will be. Nuclear Weapons do not work like Hollywood portrays. I like to point out it is part of a wider Nuclear Weapons Mythology that in my opinion is purposely promulgated. Most of the deaths in Japan were not from the Weapons, but from fires and famine afterwards. The same effect or worse would have been achieved with Incendiary Bombs. Light a wooden city on fire, see what happens. As a matter of fact, more folks died in Incendiary Bombing strikes on several occasions. Off the top of my mind, Tokyo and Dresden come to mind first.
Crudely designed, primitive delivery weapons will have a magnitudes less effect than a fully modern minaturized weapon that is delivered using high-tech means.

I would like to midly chastize you on actually learning something on your topic before taking positions. If you intend to use it as a seminar style learning opportunity, then at least make that clear.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

ladajo
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Post by ladajo »

Joseph Chikva wrote:
ladajo wrote:China - Quantity no, Quality medium to poor.
So, are you stating that China can not make quantity? The country that is even US creditor.
And from what are you stating about their "Quality medium to poor"?
No China can not. Look up how many weapons that they have, and think about it. Also, take a moment to look at types and delivery means, and think about it some more.

As for quality, I will wait to talk on that until you have done some research on quantity.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Japan,

My guess is that given all the Pu they have received that they have at least a few weapons waiting in the wings - in case China gets frisky. Same for South Korea. Possibly Taiwan.

You don't need Pu to do the design. High speed explosives and high speed cameras will do it. Add in some computer work and you are almost home.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

ladajo
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Post by ladajo »

A certain couple of countries are absolutely more ready to take the path than most. But that still does not mean that they are ready to slap one together. It would still require some big steps to accomplish. Even for a rudimentary weapon. Not even an advanced one.

When I say rudimentary, I intend that to mean large truck or large aircraft portable. I also point out that it would be comparitively yield limited. Case in point is North Korea, who started on the Nuclear Weapon path back in 1952. As of 2006 (almost 45 years of effort, and they had Russian & Chinese help), with the first test, (if they have actually tried to test a weapon) the detected test yields indicate crude design and engineering at best. They also indicate a device not suited for tactical use.
To put it in context, the first three weapons of the US were about 20Kton, 15Kton and 20Ktons each.
The 2006 North Korea test is estimated in public to be around 1Kton. If it was actually a plutonium weapon and not a big pile of HE, it was certainly not a very good one. The second test in 2009, came in at an estimated 4Kton yield. Better, but still not really there. The next weapon is expected to be a Uranium based one. The yield should be interesting. If it fizzes, it is another indicator they still haven't cracked the nut after over 50 years of working on it.

Read this:
http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/nor ... a/nuclear/
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

KitemanSA
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Post by KitemanSA »

ladajo wrote:I agree, there are more countries that could pull it off if they chose to (Japan, Korea, Germany, etc.), but the expense is not worth it for them. Also remember that Political Will is directly related to Money/Resources. In some places they are one in the same.
Besides, those three effectively get them (or at least the deterrent effect of having them) almost free of charge from the US.

ladajo
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Post by ladajo »

Yup. Why buy something your buddy will bring to the party?
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Joseph Chikva
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Post by Joseph Chikva »

ladajo wrote:
Joseph Chikva wrote:
ladajo wrote:China - Quantity no, Quality medium to poor.
So, are you stating that China can not make quantity? The country that is even US creditor.
And from what are you stating about their "Quality medium to poor"?
No China can not. Look up how many weapons that they have, and think about it. Also, take a moment to look at types and delivery means, and think about it some more.

As for quality, I will wait to talk on that until you have done some research on quantity.
I would believe you on quantity. But have a few more questions:
1. How many warheads China has?
2. What risks they have?
3. May be or not that the quantity of Chinese Nuke warheads is adequate to risks they have? As I do not believe that they can not make more if needed. As they have enough finances and technology level for this.

ladajo
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Post by ladajo »

Joe,
This was your homework. You look it up. I already have. I want you to look at it and then think about it, and then tell me what your conclusions are and why.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Netmaker
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Post by Netmaker »

Ladajo,

Perhaps some given assumptions would be in order.

The entity building the weapons is intending to actually use them within a period of months after having fabricated sufficient quantity of devices thus eliminating the need for a command and control infrastructure and significant ongoing maintenance thus reducing both cost and complexity.

The weapons are intended to cripple the target's import/export shipping capability and induce as much collateral damage to the surrounding non-port facilities as possible thus allowing for delivery by ship and use of a non-miniaturized device. Cost and complexity are again reduce because a delivery system doesn't need to be developed or built (bought, leased, rented or just paying for freight delivery) and a simple, rugged device can be used.

Granted that the yield from such a device would not be as high as from a more sophisticated device and that more fissile material may be required to achieve a suitable yield. The yield only need be sufficient to achieve the destruction of the port facilities. The use of more fissile material would marginally drive up cost and time to produce the additional material.

I understand that these are not new ideas and have been well researched. I just want to make a point that there's a huge, huge difference in cost and complexity between building weapons to actually be used against very specific targets versus that required for a survivable deterrent that has to last for decades and can be used against a wide variety of targets.

Using North Korea as an example is intended to show what is possible by a financially strapped aggressor nation. Countries with a better financial/industrial/societal base would be presumed to be more capable in achieving their aims then the pathetic excuse of a country that is NK. And that leaves us with many countries that could be successful in developing nuclear weapons should they choose to do so.

Also remember the NKs are incurring a huge expense that they don't need to under these assumptions because they are attempting to build a missile delivery system. The expense of delivering a nuclear attack would thus be less than what the NKs have incurred.

India, on a per capita basis is certainly destitute even now. It helps when to have a population of a billion people in some regards (a penny here, a penny there and soon you're talking about real money). India was significantly poorer during the time of their initial weapons development.

Indonesia's large population was one reason I included them even though they too are destitute and don't have the industrial base of many other potential candidates.

South Africa actually did produce nuclear weapons and then later dismantled them although at least according to the Wiki article, not for cost reasons.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Afri ... estruction


Juvenile Weapons - kind of like the juvenile air force of 9/11. It's the effect that matters, not the sophistication. Using ships answers meets the need. No further sophistication in the delivery system is required. If they wanted to attack inland facilities, tractor trailers are again - sufficient.

Trinity was a test of the conceptual design of Fat Man not of the actual design of the Fat Man device. Much as lab work was used to verify the conceptual design of Little Boy.

I do frequently leap without looking :) I prefer to look first most of the time. Consider though that the US effectively did so as well with those first bombs at least as compared to what today's design and testing practices would be. They were barbarian primitives :) And yet the bombs still went boom.

I believe the answer to how many devices we had after the use of The Gadget (Trinity), Fat Man and Little Boy was zero due to insufficient additional fissile material. Why do you see that as a more interesting question? A potential weapons builder may decide that spending decades building their stockpile of fissile material up is acceptable. Some maintenance involved but not the same is if they were trying to maintain actual bombs.

Remember that the first one HAS been built and many more beyond that. The proof of concept work has been done the knowledge of how to do the work has been disseminated. It's now an engineering issue rather than requiring any scientific advances. This doesn't make it easy but it certainly is much, much easier now than it was for the first bombs.

Viable.... The main blocking issue to building a viable device is having sufficiently pure fissile material. For a rudimentary, viable device my understanding is they are straight forward to build.

Miniaturization and delivery vehicles. Your mindset seems to be locked there. Miniaturization and sophisticated delivery vehicles are not required however nice they might be. Step outside the box and think of an adversary that is actually intent on using their devices shortly after they are assembled.

I do have a layman's grasp of how difficult it is to miniaturize a nuclear device and develop, deploy and maintain a sophisticated weapons delivery infrastructure. That's why I choose to take a practical approach and eliminate as much complexity as is possible and stick to achievable goals in our discussion of a theoretical nuke builder.

I'm very aware of the fire damage that occurred and that incendiary bombs can be as effective if not more so than those bombs used on Japan. Incendiary bombs have the disadvantage of requiring a lot more of them to achieve the same effect. In an all out war they're an option. In a sneak attack that is designed to cripple an adversary in a short period of time the nuke is a much, much better option however primitive it might be. And potentially has the advantage of being untraceable if your weapons program is sufficiently well hidden.

Mildly chastise away :) I'm a layman. Not a physicist or privy to non-public information although I have been following widely published information since the 4th grade. By widely published I'm referring to newspapers and not say physics or military trade journals that might have more detailed information.

Taking positions... As a general rule I'd advocate FOR taking positions on subjects even if you're not fully informed on the subject. As long as you're open to learning more, finding out you're wrong and willing to engage in discourse in a polite manner. All of which I try to do.

Think about the lessons to be learned from Lt. General Paul Van Riper's strategies in the Millennium Challenge 2002 war games:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

Take an approach of doing what you can with what you have. Not what you'd like to have or believe you should have.

How would McGuyver do it? And yes I know these are nuclear weapons we are talking about. But it's the attitude you approach the problem with that dictates what is possible.

D Tibbets
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Post by D Tibbets »

Hopefully I have not missed too much of this thread, but if the question is effort needed to make a nuclear bomb from scratch, then it is a formidable challenge. But, if the question is making a adequate nuclear weapon from weapon grade uranium or plutonium, the task is tremendously easier.
The proliferation of weapen grad fuel is what is most significant. Thanks to proliferation of poorly controlled nuclear reactors, and enrichment technology, the cost is potentially much less.

As for quantity, 10,000 warheads is certainly impressive. But remember what happened to Japan, when the US had exactly two large and primitive nuclear weapons. During WWII the US and Great Brittan killed more with conventional bombs than the nuclear bombs. And Hitler and Stalin managed to kill many more with bullets, etc.
The impressive/ scary thing about nuclear weapons is that a few (or even one) can cause a tremendous amount of damage with seemingly little effort, at least now that the technology is widely known, and the materials are available from multiple sources. The help provided by outside sources is a huge issue. I don't believe Iran built their farms of centrifuges, but bought then from helpful sources (France?). This cavalier attitude is a large part of the problem.

I suspect Iran would already have several plutonium bombs if Israel had not bombed their Russian provided nuclear reactor. And Syrea apparently had a source of ( poor quality?) plutonium from N. Korea until Israel apparently scattered it over the desert sands with a bombing raid a few years ago.

Dan Tibbets
To error is human... and I'm very human.

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