Talk-Polywell.org

This was about the last thread that ever had any news about Polywell and now it's gone to compost...

I see what you did there.

They never checked the toilet at her place, they never visited her place before the day she explained she was off grid. Her crime was being in violation of international guidelines(ICLEI/Agenda 21). First they subsidize wind turbines to shut down the coal plants, then they end the subsidy to create the energy shortage and drive up the rates like in Britian.

It all goes down hill from there.

I think this thread went to compost because there have been no .gov updates at the critical time of contract completion - to the penny - and that is an indicator that the Navy has round filed the project. JMO, and bowing to KitemanSA, that is my guess.

perhaps if they described how it could be used as a weapon, they could secure orders of magnitude more funding, and wouldn't have to show any substantial progress...

Everyday that ticks by increases the odds that we will hear something from or about EMC2.

We know that they are due another contract. If they don't get it, then that would also mean that they are out from under the "information embargo".

One way or another something will surface. I think sooner than later. The resounding quiet is pushing its limit.

That said, I do not think we can really speculate on the project status without any information at all. And ironically, given there is nothing, it gives me hope that there is something.
One would think that if it was a bust, we would be hearing such from team members.

ladajo wrote: And ironically, given there is nothing, it gives me hope that there is something.
One would think that if it was a bust, we would be hearing such from team members.

I really hope you are right, buddy. I really hope so. Also wished, I had your optimism.

I agree with ladajo, and i think i can speak for both of us when i say it's more careful reasoning than optimism.

There's some admitted probability in it: the presumption is that if their contract did not get renewed, they'd more likely say something about it than not; and consequently we'd likely hear something from them.

It follows thus that either our presumption is incorrect, not enough time has passed, their contract didn't get renewed and the presumably less likely outcome of that happened (namely, they curled their tail up beneath them) or their contract did/will get renewed (and either we will hear about it or we won't). not optimism, just that those are the only possibilities. beyond that, speculating can produce no more information than we already have. q.e.d.

Restated: if our presumption is correct, then either not enough time has passed, the contract is renewed, or the contract is not renewed and the less likely outcome occurred.

If not enough time has passed it a horse a piece, so we need only consider if enough time has passed.
The presumption is that if it wasn't renewed, the odds of hearing something would be better than 50%. If we take the null hypothesis of 50% renewal likilihood, them the odds that the contract has been renewed is equal to the odds of it not being mentioned that it has been renewed, given it has been renewed, to the odds of it not being mentioned that it hasn't been renewed, given it hasn't been renewed.

And the presumption is that the latter probability is low, so unless the numerator is lower, it probably been renewed.


Have I confused you yet?

EMC would seem to have a limited umber of outcomes, and this is reason based.

Work is viable:
They get a new contract with the navy. Scope of contract defines scope of previous success.

They don't get a new contract with the navy. They seek other funding from government or private. Scope of funding (requested and delivered) defines viability of project.

Work is not viable:
Navy drops contract support. EMC shuts down and goes away. Former employees surface elsewhere, make statements on research results.

Navy continues contract support for a shutdown phase. Former employess release research results.

Given that we have seen no money activity with the navy, and heard not a peep from anyone, logic would seem to indicate that they are somehwere in the work is viable regime. If it was not viable, there would no longer be any reasons for anyone to keep their yaps shut on what went down with the project.

The longer we go with nothing, therefore seems more encouraging (in its own perverse way).

That is my logic. Take it or leave it.

Also, it would make no sense to put the old cheesy website back up if WB-8 was a bust. On the other hand, if EMC2 was busy with a funded project why put the website back up. My thinking (my completely wild guess) is that EMC2 has been dumped by the Navy and WB-8 was not a bust...which we also know from last year's sole source memo that said about the WB-8 project (to refresh everyones memory):

The experimental results to date were consistent with the underlying theoretical framework of the Polywell fusion concept and, in the opinion of the committee merits continuation and expansion.

My cynical guess is that EMC2 already has a big VC fish on the line (an Obama campaign contributor who "deserves a perk"). Obama likes Elon Musk, Musk needs a power source for the future mars colony, why not make some more money why he is at it? Plus it would make up for his soon to fail solar company.

Just a bit of fun wild speculation, and better than arguing about compost toilets and cost of gas (if you can get it to heat your home).

mvanwink5 wrote: My cynical guess is that EMC2 already has a big VC fish on the line (an Obama campaign contributor who "deserves a perk"). Obama likes Elon Musk, Musk needs a power source for the future mars colony, why not make some more money why he is at it? Plus it would make up for his soon to fail solar company.

Bud, I think that this is a bit of a far reach there. Besides, Solar City is doing quite well.

Bud, I think that this is a bit of a far reach there. Besides, Solar City is doing quite well.

Yes it is a very far reach. I completely agree. Solar City success is dependent on subsidies and expensive electric power, purely a result of politics.

Plus deleted rant...

mvanwink5 wrote: Solar City success is dependent on subsidies and expensive electric power, purely a result of politics.

Maybe it does, but that does not mean that it is "soon to fail". A lot of businesses rely on subsidies and are purely a result of politics. Just look at the defense business and banking.

Yes, I agree with that assessment. Timing is hard to determine without prescience, but business valuation and customer decisions are based on perception of the future. Suppose, for instance, one of the dark horses announces effective net fusion and plans for building the net machine; that bombshell in itself will cause a major shift in the whole industry. So, just because the actual machine is years off, change will take place now. And business is valued on growth as perceived. Just saying. 2014 will be the year to remember, so says the 8-ball...

mvanwink5 wrote:Yes, I agree with that assessment. Timing is hard to determine without prescience, but business valuation and customer decisions are based on perception of the future. Suppose, for instance, one of the dark horses announces effective net fusion and plans for building the net machine; that bombshell in itself will cause a major shift in the whole industry. So, just because the actual machine is years off, change will take place now. And business is valued on growth as perceived. Just saying. 2014 will be the year to remember, so says the 8-ball...

Yeah, that is one of the problems that I have with the way "investment banking" works. Everything is based on virtual values. That said, I am not expecting any major shifts this year.