Change that "probable" to "likely" and you agree with me. But I have no data with which to calculate probabilities.Giorgio wrote: Less and less probable IMHO.
FUTURE TALKING POINTS:
As I see this, there is one point of unusual engineering and three points of unusual physics. NONE of them are impossible, just not data filled at this time.
Engineering:
Ni 58 derichment:
This IMHO is the simplest of the issues, just not proven. Three methods seem plausioble for a well equipped lab it the goal is to reduce the presence of Ni58 by an order of magnitude, not multiple orders.
Physics:
Coulohm Barrier:
So far, all suggested processes involve, or at least SEEM to involve, the use of a quasi-particle (conglomerate particle, condensate, what ever you wish to call it) of electrons that in some manner neutralize the repulsion of the Ni on the H+. I have looked at a number of suggestions, all of them plausible, none proven.
Gamma Emission from Excited Cu. This would under normal circumstance emit a gamma of about 6ish MeV. Something of this energy would be VERY difficult to shield. It seems that the ONLY soluition to this is "internal conversion". Luckily, if the first condition (quasi-particle of electrons) is true, there should ALWAYS be an electron available at the time of the reaction to accomplish IC. Plausible, not aproven.
Gamma emission from ground state unstable Cu:
IF and Ni isotope other than 58, 62, or 64 is involved in the process, the copper produced will be an unstable isotope with a decay time on the low order of seconds. It would under normal circumstanced emit a positron (and a neutrino) by β+ decay. This positron would effectively immediately combine with an electron and emit a 1.4(?)MeV gamma. This would also be very difficult to shield. For a while, I thought this was the game stopper. HOWEVER, it seems the prefered mechanism for thise isotope to decay is by electron capture, relying on positron emission only becasue the statistics work out htat way. In THIS postulated case, there are electrons available with regularity so perhaps the electron capture path dominates... "while the reactor is on".
This is the "iffy"est of the plausibles based on my limited research so far. Plausible, far from proven.
No miracles, no new physics, just same old physics beyond the researched edge.