"The verdict is positive"

rj40 · Post by **rj40** » Thu Dec 18, 2008 4:26 am

Good news, but when do we know for sure if a net power device will work? Well, at least sure enough to build one. After WB-8? Another 2 years? 5 years?
Congrats to Nebel and the rest, they did a lot on a vapor budget. Maybe THEY should be running GM!

Josh Cryer · Post by **Josh Cryer** » Thu Dec 18, 2008 7:48 am

I'd like to apologize for my statement that "Polywell is looking increasingly unlikely" a few days ago. It was based essentially on the review process that I am familar with, and I jumped the gun (had I waited a few more days the comment wouldn't have been made, I'm impatient I guess).

So I'm back to being cautiously optimistic.

djolds1 · Post by **djolds1** » Thu Dec 18, 2008 9:31 am

Tom Ligon wrote:If nothing else, as the economy recovers and fuel demand rises next summer, I'm sure fuel prices are going to soar again. If not in 2009, certainly in 2010. When the price of gas heads toward $4 a gallon again, the usual panic over energy alternatives is sure to ensue.

I wouldn't bet on the price of gas as a motivation any time soon. It just dropped below 40USD/bbl. The tremendous price earlier this year was all financial gamesmanship, and the reregulation going on now is going to suppress that for a good long time.

OTOH, energy independence appears to have stuck as an issue, even lower prices will bite in recessionary times, and the leading edge of the developing world (India, China) need energy out the wazoo.

Duane

scareduck · Post by **scareduck** » Thu Dec 18, 2008 1:36 pm

drmike wrote:So when can I read the report? Now that it has passed review, is it public
domain, company propriatary, or classified? I can understand keeping it
private for patent purposes, but it'd be great to be able to read it.

Useful questions:

1) Who was on the review panel?
2) What are their backgrounds?
3) What were their connections, if any, to Bussard?
4) What data do we have supporting the idea that WB-7 worked as expected?

olivier · Post by **olivier** » Thu Dec 18, 2008 2:33 pm

Congratulations and a merry Christmas to all!
I could not imagine more humble a declaration of victory. I hope we learn more in the near future.

Helius · Post by **Helius** » Thu Dec 18, 2008 5:59 pm

The tremendous price earlier this year was all financial gamesmanship, and the reregulation going on now is going to suppress that for a good long time.

I looked but couldn't find the historical margin rates for oil futures contracts.
I wonder if they just dropped them to a low rate that those involved could milk revenue out of the oil market and other commodity markets without having to do any actual.... commerce. The American perspective seems to be that so long there is no obvious single victim, then market gamesmanship is OK. We're losing a commercial perspective. Looking for customers and doing the hard slog of commerce, is just so passe for us.

Commerce can get you rich, but it won't get you rich quick.

MSimon · Post by **MSimon** » Thu Dec 18, 2008 6:29 pm

Helius wrote:
The tremendous price earlier this year was all financial gamesmanship, and the reregulation going on now is going to suppress that for a good long time.
I looked but couldn't find the historical margin rates for oil futures contracts.
I wonder if they just dropped them to a low rate that those involved could milk revenue out of the oil market and other commodity markets without having to do any actual.... commerce. The American perspective seems to be that so long there is no obvious single victim, then market gamesmanship is OK. We're losing a commercial perspective. Looking for customers and doing the hard slog of commerce, is just so passe for us.

Commerce can get you rich, but it won't get you rich quick.

No gamesmanship. Bubbles are a natural feature of markets.

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/200 ... ature.html

===

Take the housing bubble: people knew the prices were absolutely unsustainable. And yet prices kept getting bid up.

djolds1 · Post by **djolds1** » Thu Dec 18, 2008 7:37 pm

MSimon wrote:No gamesmanship. Bubbles are a natural feature of markets.

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/200 ... ature.html

There is such a thing as too much deregulation, Simon. The regulators refused to exert control over oil futures contracts, which bid up the price through the roof.

Duane

MSimon · Post by **MSimon** » Thu Dec 18, 2008 9:00 pm

djolds1 wrote:
MSimon wrote:No gamesmanship. Bubbles are a natural feature of markets.

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/200 ... ature.html
There is such a thing as too much deregulation, Simon. The regulators refused to exert control over oil futures contracts, which bid up the price through the roof.

Duane

Duane,

The corollary to that is: "This time it must be real. Good regulations are in place."

djolds1 · Post by **djolds1** » Fri Dec 19, 2008 1:49 am

MSimon wrote:The corollary to that is: "This time it must be real. Good regulations are in place."

No thing as a human optimal. We compensate for one set of problems and create another for the connivers to exploit. But the oil bubble should not have happened regardless; oil is an absolutely central strategic resource, and deserved far closer scrutiny.

MSimon · Post by **MSimon** » Fri Dec 19, 2008 6:00 am

djolds1 wrote:
MSimon wrote:The corollary to that is: "This time it must be real. Good regulations are in place."
No thing as a human optimal. We compensate for one set of problems and create another for the connivers to exploit. But the oil bubble should not have happened regardless; oil is an absolutely central strategic resource, and deserved far closer scrutiny.

Read the link I posted and follow on links in the post. There is very little you can do about bubbles except bring more supplies on line before the rising phase gets out of hand.

Or you can get ALL the participants in a market to tell each other why they are acting the way the do and what they intend to do next and then monitor actual behavior. Good luck with that.

With oil and land it is the old refrain "they aren't making any more".

Any way read the links. There is an education to be had.

MSimon · Post by **MSimon** » Fri Dec 19, 2008 6:01 am

Oil is at $36.40 a bbl. as of this posting time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Helius · Post by **Helius** » Fri Dec 19, 2008 2:49 pm

Simon,

The implication is that there is no rule set that can effect the speed and magnitude of "bubbles", is clearly a non-starter. Futures trading, a boon to commerce for both suppliers and purchasers of commodities, needs to be properly 'tuned' to avoid the very volatility we have just seen in oil.

If you drop the cost of marginal futures contracts rates to 0%, then the market would be extremely volatile, and if the amount of money needed for a contract was 100%, then producers and suppliers would be left to the vagaries of market and nature. There is an optimum, which shouldn't be left to the "players" whom would enhance volatility to increase the amount of cash that can be extracted from the system without doing any actual commerce. Commerce is hard. Playing is easy.

Commodity contract margin rules can clearly effect bubbles, to either enhance or diminish maximum magnitude and their speed of growth.

seedload · Post by **seedload** » Fri Dec 19, 2008 3:11 pm

I like rambling uncontrolled topics in the general forum. This is the news forum. Does it make sence to keep to the topic of the thread in this forum?

I am happy to hear that there is positive news on the Polywell front. I still don't know what positive means but it sounds good. Here is hoping for more and more funding.

Josh Cryer · Post by **Josh Cryer** » Fri Dec 19, 2008 3:31 pm

seedload wrote:I like rambling uncontrolled topics in the general forum. This is the news forum. Does it make sence to keep to the topic of the thread in this forum?

It makes more sense to split this topic and remove the off-topic banter about oil to the general forum. Fortunately the off-topic stuff is sequential so it would not be hard (even with the near obsolete phpBB2).