He obviously could care less about winning skeptics over with well designed and independently verified tests.
Then why bother doing the demonstrations at all?
10KW LENR demonstrator (new thread)
Well as the story goes, he initially did them for Focardi who had a close brush with death and wanted the story told before he passed on. Indeed Focardi has gotten a good deal of attention as a result of the demos so maybe he has gotten his wish.CKay wrote:He obviously could care less about winning skeptics over with well designed and independently verified tests.
Then why bother doing the demonstrations at all?
The Delusional Rossi Hypothesis is a possibility, but I think the Witting Fraudster Rossi Hypothesis makes less assumptions.tomclarke wrote:With such a loose grasp on reality any commercial transaction where he accepts money opens him to possible fraud, of course. But does not guarantee that he believes himself a fraudster.
For DRH we must assume a complex mental state, that on the one hand he has such a poor grasp on reality that he truly believes the ecats to work, yet on the other he knows that subjecting them to rigorous tests would be unwise.
Such a neurosis might well be behind his behaviour, but witting fraud seems to me a simpler explanation, one for which there are many precedents - Occam's Razor.
It is debatable. We are arguing psychology. All I will say is that self-delusion is universal, whereas deliberate fraud, though possible, less common. Extreme self-delusion, as Rossi if he is not deliberately a fraudster, is less usual, but more likely than you think!CKay wrote:The Delusional Rossi Hypothesis is a possibility, but I think the Witting Fraudster Rossi Hypothesis makes less assumptions.tomclarke wrote:With such a loose grasp on reality any commercial transaction where he accepts money opens him to possible fraud, of course. But does not guarantee that he believes himself a fraudster.
For DRH we must assume a complex mental state, that on the one hand he has such a poor grasp on reality that he truly believes the ecats to work, yet on the other he knows that subjecting them to rigorous tests would be unwise.
Such a neurosis might well be behind his behaviour, but witting fraud seems to me a simpler explanation, one for which there are many precedents - Occam's Razor.
There are many precedents for both explanations.
Fraud is possible of course, but given the relatively high profile of this affair (much of it created by Rossi himself), its hard to understand what kind of life he would have after being exposed. Even if he slipped past the law somehow and remained a free man, he must surely understand that he would be a social pariah for the rest of his days. When this sort of thing happens, it is often because someone believed they had something and by the time they discovered they did not, events had overtaken them and they were caught up in them.CKay wrote:The Delusional Rossi Hypothesis is a possibility, but I think the Witting Fraudster Rossi Hypothesis makes less assumptions.tomclarke wrote:With such a loose grasp on reality any commercial transaction where he accepts money opens him to possible fraud, of course. But does not guarantee that he believes himself a fraudster.
For DRH we must assume a complex mental state, that on the one hand he has such a poor grasp on reality that he truly believes the ecats to work, yet on the other he knows that subjecting them to rigorous tests would be unwise.
Such a neurosis might well be behind his behaviour, but witting fraud seems to me a simpler explanation, one for which there are many precedents - Occam's Razor.
He may never be exposed - difficult to prove a negative and all. There have been plenty of similar scams that just run and run.Kahuna wrote:Fraud is possible of course, but given the relatively high profile of this affair (much of it created by Rossi himself), its hard to understand what kind of life he would have after being exposed.
In a few months Rossi will likely be announcing a delay to the home ecats due to some unspecified technical fault, or a legal or financial problem (which would need just a little more investment).
He could even play the 'there's a global conspiracy against the ecat' card - plenty would believe it.
Fair enough - good points. I can see how this can go one of three main ways: (1) premeditated scam, (2) self-delusion, (3) Real deal. I do think there is circumstantial evidence to support all three. I guess it bothers me that some are so dead sure of one of three at this point. The arrogance and condescension of the advocates is almost palpable and certainly unwarranted. I personally think that a "wait and see" attitude is advisable at this point.CKay wrote:He may never be exposed - difficult to prove a negative and all. There have been plenty of similar scams that just run and run.Kahuna wrote:Fraud is possible of course, but given the relatively high profile of this affair (much of it created by Rossi himself), its hard to understand what kind of life he would have after being exposed.
In a few months Rossi will likely be announcing a delay to the home ecats due to some unspecified technical fault, or a legal or financial problem (which would need just a little more investment).
He could even play the 'there's a global conspiracy against the ecat' card - plenty would believe it.
Last edited by Kahuna on Mon Jan 16, 2012 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Parallel,
I reflected for a moment, and do not recall ever insulting you. I make a point not to insult folks here intentionally. If I have done it, as I sit here and type this, I can not think of when I have. I think my history around here demonstrates that pretty well, I believe most view me as a rational actor here. I can be direct and blunt at times, but do not intend that as an active insult, more so as an "Aww, come-on". I find that debate ceases being debate once the insults start flying. Most of the time, I actually seek to end the insult streams here and re-focus discussions to the things that matter.
Thank you for your answers to my questions. What I took from your post was that you think Rossi has demonstrated his unit satisfactorily, and that you think he has explained himself sufficiently. I get the larger part about science and dogma verses new ideas. What I did not see in your post were any counterpoint analysis, or grounded basis for your acceptance of his tests and statements. Without meaning to be insulting, it would seem that your argument in supporting him is exactly the same basis that you use to say how folks that do not are wrong. It comes across as a "matter of religion" as a friend of mine used to say.
In the case of Rossi, this latest exchange has been useful. personally I think his actions fall somewhere between 1 and 2. He does actively misrepresent things, such as contracts, deals, plans, etc. But maybe he does so as "wishful" delusions. Many times he has cited "we have a deal with so and so", and "we are and have been working together", where-as the other parties once asked either say, "Rossi who?" or "Rossi, yes we have talked with him, but are not doing anything with him". Note that most of these talks occured when Rossi sought them out or invited them to the party.
Rossi is very much a "Marketing by association" business type.
Rossi appears to like operating in an environment where he can say anything he likes. He does not seem to like a concrete environment where he must accept concrete facts. He seems to like his "manuever space".
Rossi comes across as Mr. Halftruth. In poker, he would try to play as the guy that never ever shows his cards. Even when called, he will try to find a way not to lay down the hand.
In any event, I see still no cards on the table. Just a lot of talk with just enough action to keep the talk going.
The more and more "secrets" and layed contradictions he claims, the more likely it becomes fake. Secret customers, sauce, locations, meetings, distribution system, partners etc.
For how long did he say he would not talk about "radiation" as it would give it all away. Now he comes out and says there are 512MeV gammas.
I reflected for a moment, and do not recall ever insulting you. I make a point not to insult folks here intentionally. If I have done it, as I sit here and type this, I can not think of when I have. I think my history around here demonstrates that pretty well, I believe most view me as a rational actor here. I can be direct and blunt at times, but do not intend that as an active insult, more so as an "Aww, come-on". I find that debate ceases being debate once the insults start flying. Most of the time, I actually seek to end the insult streams here and re-focus discussions to the things that matter.
Thank you for your answers to my questions. What I took from your post was that you think Rossi has demonstrated his unit satisfactorily, and that you think he has explained himself sufficiently. I get the larger part about science and dogma verses new ideas. What I did not see in your post were any counterpoint analysis, or grounded basis for your acceptance of his tests and statements. Without meaning to be insulting, it would seem that your argument in supporting him is exactly the same basis that you use to say how folks that do not are wrong. It comes across as a "matter of religion" as a friend of mine used to say.
In the case of Rossi, this latest exchange has been useful. personally I think his actions fall somewhere between 1 and 2. He does actively misrepresent things, such as contracts, deals, plans, etc. But maybe he does so as "wishful" delusions. Many times he has cited "we have a deal with so and so", and "we are and have been working together", where-as the other parties once asked either say, "Rossi who?" or "Rossi, yes we have talked with him, but are not doing anything with him". Note that most of these talks occured when Rossi sought them out or invited them to the party.
Rossi is very much a "Marketing by association" business type.
Rossi appears to like operating in an environment where he can say anything he likes. He does not seem to like a concrete environment where he must accept concrete facts. He seems to like his "manuever space".
Rossi comes across as Mr. Halftruth. In poker, he would try to play as the guy that never ever shows his cards. Even when called, he will try to find a way not to lay down the hand.
In any event, I see still no cards on the table. Just a lot of talk with just enough action to keep the talk going.
The more and more "secrets" and layed contradictions he claims, the more likely it becomes fake. Secret customers, sauce, locations, meetings, distribution system, partners etc.
For how long did he say he would not talk about "radiation" as it would give it all away. Now he comes out and says there are 512MeV gammas.
It's not a case of being dead sure - rather working out what explanation seems the most probable.Kahuna wrote:I can see how this can go one of three main ways: (1) premeditated scam, (2) self-delusion, (3) Real deal. I do think there is circumstantial evidence to support all three. I guess it bothers me that some are so dead sure of one of three at this point.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and I see no evidence, circumstantial or otherwise that suggest Rossi's ecats to be the real deal.
On the contrary, the weight of circumstantial evidence seems strongly to suggest scam, delusion or a combination of the two as the most likely explanations.
As for wait and see - bearing in mind that this may run indefinitely, at what point should we make a judgement? If some people believe that Rossi's claims are obviously dodgy, shouldn't they say so and perhaps warn others who may be considering giving him money?
Agree with all of this. What bothers me are the "you fool, can't you see that this is an obvious scam" type posts that drip with arrogance and condescension.CKay wrote:It's not a case of being dead sure - rather working out what explanation seems the most probable.Kahuna wrote:I can see how this can go one of three main ways: (1) premeditated scam, (2) self-delusion, (3) Real deal. I do think there is circumstantial evidence to support all three. I guess it bothers me that some are so dead sure of one of three at this point.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and I see no evidence, circumstantial or otherwise that suggest Rossi's ecats to be the real deal.
On the contrary, the weight of circumstantial evidence seems strongly to suggest scam, delusion or a combination of the two as the most likely explanations.
As for wait and see - bearing in mind that this may run indefinitely, at what point should we make a judgement? If some people believe that Rossi's claims are obviously dodgy, shouldn't they say so and perhaps warn others who may be considering giving him money?
I think there is plenty of room for doubt left and lots to discuss/debate. Rossi may go quietly into the night, but I sincerly doubt it. I think he will be exposed or exonerated, I'm certainly not sure which at this point. I understand the tendancy for people to only see the evidence that supports their stated position, so I guess its easier to see all sides if you don't have one.
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stefanbanev
- Posts: 183
- Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2011 3:12 am
>"If some people believe that Rossi's claims are obviously dodgy,CKay wrote:It's not a case of being dead sure - rather working out what explanation seems the most probable.Kahuna wrote:I can see how this can go one of three main ways: (1) premeditated scam, (2) self-delusion, (3) Real deal. I do think there is circumstantial evidence to support all three. I guess it bothers me that some are so dead sure of one of three at this point.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and I see no evidence, circumstantial or otherwise that suggest Rossi's ecats to be the real deal.
On the contrary, the weight of circumstantial evidence seems strongly to suggest scam, delusion or a combination of the two as the most likely explanations.
As for wait and see - bearing in mind that this may run indefinitely, at what point should we make a judgement? If some people believe that Rossi's claims are obviously dodgy, shouldn't they say so and perhaps warn others who may be considering giving him money?
>shouldn't they say so and perhaps warn others who may be
>considering giving him money?"
The one who has money has it exactly for the reason it does not give it away foolishly. Money have tendency to flow along IQ gradient. Before investing a substantial resources any reasonable investor would hire a responsible technical staff to run benchmarks who faces legal consequences for giving a wrong expertise so, free advice is not required in fact it is irresponsible to follow a free advice.
>"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence"
Even it is apparently true it is too general to be meaningful. The specific "claims" are subject of due diligence and a prerequisite for any contract. Unnecessary to say that any public exposure (or nondisclosure) is just a part of marketing strategy and has nothing to do with "scientific truth".
Last edited by stefanbanev on Mon Jan 16, 2012 6:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: More comprehensive report
I realize I'm beating a dead hobbyhorse here, but...that's nice to "know".Am wrote:
- For 1MW with ‘thin’ amount of H and Ni… Theory soon… Understood well.
I don't claim to be even a paper scientist, but I assumed it was the latter. I'm not clear if it's supposed to be referring to the gamma rays or the positrons, though, or how it was measured. Am's post makes the meaning a little clearer, perhaps:D Tibbets wrote:what the heck does the 180 degrees refer to? Is that the heat contribuion of the gammas (which would be highly lethal in a short amount of time if not heavily shielded- and constant. And if not constant, then not one but two unknown physics processes must be assumed.), are they polarized, or have some preferred exit vector as opposed to being isotropic?
Am wrote:
- Gamma radiation. Transmutation Ni to Cu is side effect. Evidence of 511 kEV gamma at 180 deg electron positron (antimatter) production. [This is interesting].
Or maybe he says that not all insults constitute libel.parallel wrote:Tomclarke says if it’s true it’s not an insult.
Temperature, density, confinement time: pick any two.
That makes it sound like the stupid deserve to be ripped off!stefanbanev wrote:The one who has money has it exactly for the reason it does not give it away foolishly. Money have tendency to flow along IQ gradient. Before investing a substantial resources any reasonable investor would hire a responsible technical staff to run benchmarks who faces legal consequences for giving a wrong expertise so, free advice is not required in fact it is irresponsible to follow a free advice.
What happens when Rossi starts asking for deposits for the home ecats? He claims to have a list of interested customers, so this seems a possibility.
Presumably, if a few thousand people were to lose their money, that would be just punishment for possession of a low IQ (because intelligence is not an accident of birth but a moral choice) and Rossi's gains a just reward for his display of cunning?
What I see looks a lot like group polarization. The extreme rudeness seems totally unnecessary.
How groups amplify the individual.
Psychologist David Myers of Hope College finds "group polarization" a beautiful idea, since it explains how interacting with others tends to amplify people's initial views. In particular, discussing issues with like-minded peers — increasingly the norm in the United States, where red states attract conservatives and blue states attract liberals — push people toward extremes.
"The surprising thing is that the group as a whole becomes more extreme than its pre-discussion average," he said in an interview.