Polywell In Europe Raising Funds

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

Moderators: tonybarry, MSimon

chrismb
Posts: 3161
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 6:00 pm

Post by chrismb »

"to JMC:

Since you are worried about Rider, let me suggest the following exercise. Let's assume that a Polywell reactor is in the wiffleball mode, namely that:

n*kBolt*Te = B**2/(2*mu0)

to make it simple, let's use mks units and assume B = 10 Tesla, mu0 =4.0e-7*pi, Te = 1.0e4 eV and kBolt = 1.6022e-19 Joules per eV.

Calculate what n is and compare it to the ITER value at

http://www.iter.org/a/index_nav_4.htm

"

'ang on a minute!? So the claim here is that a wiffleball is a better confinement surface than a tokamak toroid!

hahhhahhahahahhahhahhahhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MSimon
Posts: 14335
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2007 7:37 pm
Location: Rockford, Illinois
Contact:

Post by MSimon »

take Bussard's proclamations at face value
Actually it was Rick Nebel on this forum who came up with the 62,500 number.

I think it was a density thing (you would have to look it up). OK. Look here:

viewtopic.php?p=4911#4911

viewtopic.php?p=4940#4940
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

chrismb
Posts: 3161
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 6:00 pm

Post by chrismb »

TallDave wrote:OTOH, we have the benefit of knowing why tokamaks failed
Please, do tell me more! I wasn't aware that it had failed. So, when did this happen?

MSimon
Posts: 14335
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2007 7:37 pm
Location: Rockford, Illinois
Contact:

Post by MSimon »

chrismb wrote:
TallDave wrote:OTOH, we have the benefit of knowing why tokamaks failed
Please, do tell me more! I wasn't aware that it had failed. So, when did this happen?
Experiments trimmed despite a doubled budget. Redesign for ELMs in the works. Schedule delays.

It sure looks like a project in trouble to me. If I was to make a guess I think that the ITER will be shut down in the next year in favor of smaller experiments to work out the kinks.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

chrismb
Posts: 3161
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 6:00 pm

Post by chrismb »

MSimon wrote:Experiments trimmed despite a doubled budget. Redesign for ELMs in the works. Schedule delays.
Sounds like a 'troubled' experimental schedule, for sure. Doesn't sound like a 'failure' yet, though, any more than finding no more than 3 clicks on a neutron counter when you need 3 trillion clicks for break-even.

...and so what if it was shut down. Was space travel any less a failure in Greek times because Icarus' wings melted??

MSimon
Posts: 14335
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2007 7:37 pm
Location: Rockford, Illinois
Contact:

Post by MSimon »

chrismb wrote:
MSimon wrote:Experiments trimmed despite a doubled budget. Redesign for ELMs in the works. Schedule delays.
Sounds like a 'troubled' experimental schedule, for sure. Doesn't sound like a 'failure' yet, though, any more than finding no more than 3 clicks on a neutron counter when you need 3 trillion clicks for break-even.

...and so what if it was shut down. Was space travel any less a failure in Greek times because Icarus' wings melted??
I agree. An ITER shut down is a "so what?" It was way too ambitious for the state of the art.

I also agree that at this point the failure is not "official". But they are doing a 3 month design/schedule review. With good management intent on moving forward those kinds of things are done in a month or less.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Betruger
Posts: 2321
Joined: Tue May 06, 2008 11:54 am

Post by Betruger »

chrismb wrote:
MSimon wrote:Experiments trimmed despite a doubled budget. Redesign for ELMs in the works. Schedule delays.
Sounds like a 'troubled' experimental schedule, for sure. Doesn't sound like a 'failure' yet, though, any more than finding no more than 3 clicks on a neutron counter when you need 3 trillion clicks for break-even.

...and so what if it was shut down. Was space travel any less a failure in Greek times because Icarus' wings melted??
How do you make these lopsided comparisons? Those three measly clicks were on EMC's budget and manpower versus the budget and manpower that ITER has had. Apples and oranges.

chrismb
Posts: 3161
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 6:00 pm

Post by chrismb »

Betruger wrote:How do you make these lopsided comparisons? Those three measly clicks were on EMC's budget and manpower versus the budget and manpower that ITER has had. Apples and oranges.
Not really. You're not looking at the actual numbers from tokamaks. There is a clear straight line through tokamak experiments to date, and JET is on that extrapolation and delivered as expected. In fact, it delivered better than expected and 'new physics' was found (H-mode) that has meant things have gone up a notch. When did Polywell last find something out about its functional mechanism that was better than expected?

Oh, yeah, silly me, it's not even found anything out about its funtional mechanism yet, like, whether it even works as described!!

Lopsided analysis?? geddaowdahere....

MSimon
Posts: 14335
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2007 7:37 pm
Location: Rockford, Illinois
Contact:

Post by MSimon »

chrismb wrote:
Betruger wrote:How do you make these lopsided comparisons? Those three measly clicks were on EMC's budget and manpower versus the budget and manpower that ITER has had. Apples and oranges.
Not really. You're not looking at the actual numbers from tokamaks. There is a clear straight line through tokamak experiments to date, and JET is on that extrapolation and delivered as expected. In fact, it delivered better than expected and 'new physics' was found (H-mode) that has meant things have gone up a notch. When did Polywell last find something out about its functional mechanism that was better than expected?

Oh, yeah, silly me, it's not even found anything out about its funtional mechanism yet, like, whether it even works as described!!

Lopsided analysis?? geddaowdahere....
I'm looking for a Navy release in the April-June time frame maybe something about letting the WB-9 contract. Eighteen months from May of 2009 is Nov of 2010. Two years is May of 2011.

So I expect an announcement in 18 months or less.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
Posts: 14335
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2007 7:37 pm
Location: Rockford, Illinois
Contact:

Post by MSimon »

chrismb wrote:
Betruger wrote:How do you make these lopsided comparisons? Those three measly clicks were on EMC's budget and manpower versus the budget and manpower that ITER has had. Apples and oranges.
Not really. You're not looking at the actual numbers from tokamaks. There is a clear straight line through tokamak experiments to date, and JET is on that extrapolation and delivered as expected. In fact, it delivered better than expected and 'new physics' was found (H-mode) that has meant things have gone up a notch. When did Polywell last find something out about its functional mechanism that was better than expected?

Oh, yeah, silly me, it's not even found anything out about its funtional mechanism yet, like, whether it even works as described!!

Lopsided analysis?? geddaowdahere....
Nebel did say about 6 months ago that without the Wiffle Ball they had nothing. So there are a couple of possibilities: they have a Wiffle Ball, or results are inconclusive.

There is no way you can be sure of the state of Schroedinger's Cat until some information comes out. Dead or alive?
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Betruger
Posts: 2321
Joined: Tue May 06, 2008 11:54 am

Post by Betruger »

chrismb wrote:When did Polywell last find something out about its functional mechanism that was better than expected?
On who's, what standards?
Oh, yeah, silly me, it's not even found anything out about its funtional mechanism yet, like, whether it even works as described!!
Silly indeed. Or are you on the inside loop of experimental results from these last few years?
Lopsided analysis?? geddaowdahere....
It's not an analysis, it's a comparison of a small-design shoe-string project early in its development and still well under wraps, to a big-time design and funding project long into full funding and from under the cloak. On top of that, the two projects are different things - IEC vs Magnetic. A lopsided comparison in line with the rest of your usual prophecizing. You don't know any more than anyone else, but that doesn't stop you from making conclusions before the results are in. You'd rather repeat your hasty conclusion (what else could it be when the results aren't even in?) over and over like a broken record than do something useful, like flesh out other non-beaten paths.

It's like planning ahead of a battle. The fog of war precludes any certainty. So you plan for multiple possibilities. Once you've hashed out one scenario, you move on to something else. You don't repeatedly emphasize that one scenario is guaranteed defeat or victory once its proven as such based on the premises, on the initial working assumptions. That's a waste of time, when the rest of the realistic scenarios haven't been hashed out yet. You don't favor any one, but hone all of them out as far as evidence allows and play them against each other.

A waste of time because no one (or very few) have any concrete, material stake on the Polywell. Also very few really believe that it will absolutely, undoubtedly work. If there's anyone that does, that's the only people you're talking to with the incessant repetition that Polywell is a dead end, and one wonders what intellectual nurturing you get out of sticking around to do almost nothing but that.
And since we're not planning for any battles here, the real reward is either the intellectual mileage inside the allowed boundaries (e.g. classic physics expectations and predictions like Dr Carlson has fleshed out, DEFINITE knowns like the assumptions and few data that Dr Bussard publicized, and all the little bits like that the picture on the EMC2 website is of a helium test only, etc).. or wagers.

Incessant ridicule on the other hand is no use at all. Especially when its the same "once-funny" kind. Wait for the darn results, man. Everyone else with a minimum of sense is.

chrismb
Posts: 3161
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 6:00 pm

Post by chrismb »

Betruger wrote: Wait for the darn results, man.
That's the only bit of my message you seem to get. Of course! My condescension is not aimed at Polywell, it's aimed at the recent flush of "we've heard nothing, so there must be something in it!" messages. I'm reacting to those non-technical comments, not technical comments regarding Polywell.

Let's stick to your mantra; i) wait for the darn results, ii) but if something must be said then let it be some form of analysis. I agree with this, and have not countered it, neither in word nor deed.

Betruger
Posts: 2321
Joined: Tue May 06, 2008 11:54 am

Post by Betruger »

So your counter to people getting ahead of themselves with conjecture is to get ahead of yourself with conjecture. And I get your whole message fine. Do you have access to experimental results to base yourself on, technically and not?

chrismb
Posts: 3161
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 6:00 pm

Post by chrismb »

Betruger wrote:So your counter to people getting ahead of themselves with conjecture is to get ahead of yourself with conjecture.
Wow! Sounds great, the way you put it!

Almost philosophical!
Betruger wrote:Do you have access to experimental results to base yourself on, technically and not?
I think so. Not sure exactly what you mean, though.

Betruger
Posts: 2321
Joined: Tue May 06, 2008 11:54 am

Post by Betruger »

:lol: I'm not going to go search your posts. Well alright, this was in another tab I'd opened.
Oh! Jeez!

Come on guys. Wake up out of these daydreams and smell the coffee!

All the Polywell prototypes will clearly end up with over-unity to input energy, because of the huge amount of bloomin' hot air they've generated!

Empty, vacuous and not even scientifically based speculations that interpret non-scientific speculations of speculations.

The party's almost over, everyone's drunk, the beer's all gone and the snacks munched. Start working out where you left your coat, 'cos it'll take you these last 6 1/2 months to figure out where it is, in your inebriated state. The stripper hasn't turn up and it seems too late for that to happen now. The host has disappeared into his own closed room and no-one's even sure he's there. All in all it looks like a dork's party for dorks, unless something swings through the door in the last few moments to liven it up. Probability of this?; approaching triple zero. I'll sip some coffee while I wait for my taxi!

Look at the last few dozen posts - all talking about what "no news" means!! Give it a rest!!
Hyperbole and condescension indeed.

Post Reply