Lawrenceville plasma physics June update

GIThruster · Post by **GIThruster** » Sun Jun 27, 2010 7:37 pm

The text says that the graph is a plot of planned experiments and their hoped for dates. according to the graph, break-even is scheduled for early November. If they stay on this schedule, that will be an amazing accomplishment.

But yeah, so much for schedules. . .

Skipjack · Post by **Skipjack** » Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:31 pm

Well, they even say it themselves:

The time given for each step is also an estimate. Things don’t always go smoothly as we know from the switch delays.

kcdodd · Post by **kcdodd** » Sun Jun 27, 2010 10:43 pm

Especially since that is a semi-log graph. The straight line means they expect to get exponential growth in power over the next year. I wish I got ten times much done every month as the last month.

Giorgio · Post by **Giorgio** » Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:14 am

The next point in the graph is dated July 1 and has a tager over 1J.
I think we will see in the very next weeks if they will be able to keep the schedule as they have envised.

Skipjack · Post by **Skipjack** » Mon Jun 28, 2010 8:55 am

The next point in the graph is dated July 1 and has a tager over 1J.

Yeah, I am looking foreward to that update. It should already be able to tell us something.

ladajo · Post by **ladajo** » Mon Jun 28, 2010 3:23 pm

I still think that it behooves Rick to get something on the street for progress. Famulus' articles, and publicity is a great segway for him.
I still see risk for Rick in Focus making progress, and being open about it (at no real risk to themselves), whereas Polywell remains a blackhole.

I also give due note to the fact that with lots of articles popping on Famulus, that there is a VERY limited mainstream understanding to what he is trying and why. And that includes the demonstrated awareness levels of the Talking Head experts brought on for comment.

It could not hurt Rick at all to push out some background and a real update at this point, it should only help to re-enforce the skittish funding supporters inside the navy when they see some positive support from the public arena in response.

TallDave · Post by **TallDave** » Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:07 pm

kcdodd wrote:Especially since that is a semi-log graph. The straight line means they expect to get exponential growth in power over the next year. I wish I got ten times much done every month as the last month.

Now you're reminding me of A Fire Upon The Deep.

I confidently predict failure, followed by recriminations and possibly lawsuits, once again giving fusion a bad name.

ltgbrown · Post by **ltgbrown** » Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:07 pm

I still think that it behooves Rick to get something on the street for progress.

It could not hurt Rick at all to push out some background and a real update at this point, it should only help to re-enforce the skittish funding supporters inside the navy when they see some positive support from the public arena in response.

I have a nagging feeling that the reason we have not seen anything is that there are some serious issues. Ones that they have some ideas on how they might overcome them, but not concrete. So no one in the know is comfortable letting the cat out of the bag, because they might find that they do not have solutions for the problems.

Why do I feel this way? Well, if they did not have serious issues, just small easily solvable ones, then letting the cat out of the bag could / should lead very quickly to a manhattan like project to answer the solvable problems and move forward on building the demo and beyond. Meanwhile, putting together the legislation to mandate the full conversion of our electrical grid in short order as an economic stimulatant, answer to the greenies, and something for the politicians to waive around as their dramatic response to the oil spill. People would see the light (that cool glow from fusion!) at the end of the tunnel and would be hopeful. They would spend. They would carry the burden of the price of quickly converting. The economy would explode. So much to be gained by those in a position to make it happen. Why do they not do it? I seriously doubt it is because things are going great but no one is telling anyone above the Deputy Assistant Secretary level. Conversion of the entire U.S. Navy. A clearly defined, and now known cost (relatively speaking), path towards energy independence and security. Leverage on Iran. All the pluses as discussed in csankos' posts. Too much to be gained to be keeping this quite and not dramatically increasing funding. If I am wrong, then I am really pissed at the inability of our leadership to grasp the significance of Polywell and to do something about it.

Skipjack · Post by **Skipjack** » Mon Jun 28, 2010 7:36 pm

I would tend to think a bit like you ltgbrown (I am a pessimist by nature). There are however a few reasons why I dont think this is the case.
Dr. Nebel still has a job at LANL. I assume that if he was to quit working at EMC2 he would just go back to there. So he does not have to make money out of Polywell. He rather has to keep his reputation as a scientist in tact. That is probably his highest priority. A lot of people are looking closely at Polywell and at him. If he screws up like Pons and Fleschmann, he will loose his reputation and probably his chance at returning to his "old" job. So I am sure he has his priorities right with how and when he chooses to present his data.
If he goes public with whatever he has to early, he could cause a nasty scandal. So making sure that everything is rock solid, is a good priority.
I would start to worry when Dr. Nebel decides to leave his job at EMC2 and returns to LANL. Then we will know that Polywell is a failure.

ladajo · Post by **ladajo** » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:21 pm

Well, to be fair, this would not be the first major (recent or otherwise) blunder by navy leadership regarding a program and its managment.

In fact, I am hard pressed to think of a recent clean successful program.

Hmmm.

I choose to be an optomist, I am hoping it is ignorance and fear of looking stupid that has kept it under wraps so far. We have such a risk averse culture these days.

I REALLY hope this thing works.

ltgbrown · Post by **ltgbrown** » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:37 pm

If he goes public with whatever he has to early, he could cause a nasty scandal. So making sure that everything is rock solid, is a good priority.

Skipjack, and others reading, my thought is he doesn't have to go public for us to see a lot more things going on within the govt and programatics. There doesn't have to be a public disclosure of data or progress for there to be some significant changes in funding and effort. Or at least, I tell myself that. That was the angle I was taking. You bring up an excellent point though about protecting ones reputation. My lack of understanding of the role of Dr. Nebel in deciding when and if data is released led me to not even consider the angle that you did.

ladajo · Post by **ladajo** » Tue Jun 29, 2010 3:58 pm

To help drive the point, there seems to be a VERY short distro list inside the navy and government on what EMC is doing. That can not be helpful considering the much greater visibility other initiative are now getting.
Of course to be fair the flip side may apply, ICF, etc are the big ticket "success" stories right now. Why risk a money fight...

I am inclined to think that EMC2 remains supported by a small minority within the establishment, and this couple of folks driving the money bus remain skittish that they can be hit by the money axe at any time. To ways to solve the issue, remain low profile and show steady quiet progress, or go for broke with a big sponsor (who does not seem to exist right now).
It appears they are tracking on the prior vice the latter. They (he) are(is) also creative, submitting to Recovery Act was a slick move. (But does risk a certain amount of visibility). Who is "he", I ask, that remains to be seen.

MSimon · Post by **MSimon** » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:20 pm

go for broke with a big sponsor (who does not seem to exist right now

I can tell you at the (estimated) confidence level of 95% that if EMC2 loses the Navy contract with "no show stopper" results funds will be available.

ltgbrown · Post by **ltgbrown** » Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:15 pm

if EMC2 loses the Navy contract with "no show stopper" results

If this were to happen, I would have to retire early since I could not be apart of an organization with such shortsidedness and incompetence.

TallDave · Post by **TallDave** » Tue Jun 29, 2010 8:06 pm

I have a nagging feeling that the reason we have not seen anything is that there are some serious issues.

WB-8 results probably either don't exist yet or are very preliminary. The schedule was for a machine to be delivered a couple months ago.

As for WB-7 results... well, the most salient piece of data in our possession is that they're building WB-8. It's a bigger commitment of resources than any machine in the WB series received by an order of magnitude. That says Navy reviewers were probably satisfied they had answered the small-machine questions.

The next thing to watch for is the WB-8.1 award, or lack thereof.

That can not be helpful considering the much greater visibility other initiative are now getting.

Visibility is a double-edged sword. A highly visible failure can be devastating to a tech's reputation (I imagine Bussard building a $100M WB-5 -- ouch!). Lerner may be setting himself up to disappoint a lot of people.

Incidentally, many of us wrote/called/berated our Congresspeople to urge funding of Polywell. Rick cautioned that such funding can be seen as a boondoggle by the public, and as it turns out the stimulus has become fairly unpopular. In addition to avoiding a cold fusion style debacle, that's another reason they might want to keep their heads down a bit. We can really do without another Nevins interview where he says this is all a waste of time and (taxpayer) money.