Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

[Teemu]

Still, there is Tri-Alpha and General Fusion efforts, which show us what serious efforts really look like. Makes Polywell look like a red headed Cinderella step child. I mean really!, General Fusion is going for net this year, with $80million cash lined up for the full size prototype when things pan out. Polywell on the other hand is given underpowered electron guns, twice? Enough of my worn out rant, and the point is Polywell may have really nice scaling, but the other nags in the race have hay and have strong chances of success. To be even more clear, my hopes for real fusion power, soon, is not dependent on the Navy's limp funding fiddling.

I remember people saying the same thing about Focus Fusion in 2007, with their funding and targeted net power date in late 2010. I don't think you have to ask how that worked out.

Isn't the funding for Focus Fusion even lower than it has been for EMC2 Polywell? I can't recall them ever getting big venture capital, at the moment they are trying to raise 1 million for the final year through crowd funding. That is quite different from the supposedly over $140 million venture capital raised by Tri-Alpha.

[TallDave]

Teemu -- I don't remember the exact numbers for Lerner, but of course PW was unfunded for a year or two (when Bussard did the tech talk and we were writing Congresscritters).

One of the things that held my interest in PWs was that Rick (in particular) was always on the level about the prospects; there were extrapolations but they were measured and came with appropriate caveats. IMHO Lerner has sacrificed a lot of credibility with all the promises he couldn't keep.\

Tri-Alpha definitely got more money though, and it was real (i.e. investor) money to boot. And of course Rostoker et al had that little Science Mag dustup with Art Carlson, so they have a little more sciencey oomph too, not that it's likely to matter in the end. Wonder how they're doing today?

[mvanwink5]

September 11, 2013 update to .gov, but no money added.
https://www.fpds.gov/ezsearch/search.do ... =939528956
reason for update:
"SUPPLEMENTAL AGREEMENT FOR WORK WITHIN SCOPE"

Whatever that means. My speculation is the project work is complete and money was left over, so other "work" is being done with the remaining money.

[ladajo]

I would think that the next posting to FPDS will be telling one way or the other. No real maneuver room left it it seem.

Fingers crossed.

[mvanwink5]

Looks like a three month delay in posting the change (posted today, December 11 and change made September 11). If that is the case, given September 30 is the project completion date, we might expect another update by the start of January assuming the option is awarded to EMC2. However, we are talking about government here...

[ladajo]

I would guess that we will know something via FPDS by no later than March.

[mvanwink5]

EMC2 must have a boat load of engineering data and a completed model with scaling nailed from the Navy money and years devoted to WB-8 testing and detailed plasma diagnostics, even with the shoestring university science project level of funding. Further, EMC2 has not closed doors (means there is something useful that came out of the university science project effort), so the forks in the road are exercised Navy B-11 option, a new Navy project for a small 100 MW DD reactor for ships or boats, or private reactor money for utility scale electric power if scaling is unfavorable for a small footprint reactor useful for the Navy. Judging by the old crappy website that resurfaced, my bet is EMC2 is not courting private money for utility scale electric power, unless they have deep pocket private backers already lined up (crappy web site = low profile). So, I am expecting more university science project scale, below net-power, low budget Navy money to bureaucrat its way onto FPDS reports in its normal foot dragging time, seeing as it didn't make it in the first part of January. I can't say I am expecting B-11 as the money needed to have been committed last summer for hardware lead time if polywell looked favorable.

[ladajo]

Real science has tendency to take strange paths.

[choff]

Maybe the EMC2 effort was a cover for the Lockheed Martin skunkworks project, and the solve for x presentation was only revealing where they were at 4 years ago with it.

[D Tibbets]

My impression, for what it is worth, is that the Skunkworks project is a derivative of the Polywell idea. Their presentation was interesting on several levels. One, it was possibly a political move associated with continued funding - 'what, you are ending funding, OK we'll go public'. Or possibly just a breakdown in management priorities or egos...

In any case, Lockheed Skunkworks is not a fly by night organization, and it's pursuit of this research may be an independent validation of Polywell claims. Skunkworks historically has been the goto organization to get results from a challenging technology, at least in the aerospace field. Speculatively, it may have given a glimpse of what is going on beyond the Navy smoke screen. Or it may just represent a flexibility at Lockheed to test some interesting ideas...

Dan Tibbets

[paperburn1]

I worked for LM for five years. They are money tight for sure. If your project can not pay at a good percentage or have the potential to pay at a good percentage in the short term ,they will shut you down. That is why I am happy about them in the fusion race. They are expecting a payday or it would have been dropped by now.

[mvanwink5]

I doubt LM has picked up EMC2's polywell work as EMC2 is working (at least they are not at the street corner with cardboard sign, "Will work for D-D"). On the other hand, no one has seen a surge of job openings at EMC2. What is likely is that the contract money was sequestered and the project delayed, and everyone was told to take a vacation in Mexico or Alabama. Somehow they will justify more university science scale research to avoid big money and bureaucratic risk, but I doubt the B-11 option will be granted, might be interpreted as meaning anything actually worked. Bets on just modeling money?

[ladajo]

What is likely is that the contract money was sequestered

Lots of stuff has been cut. Some of it was done in anticipation of presumed cuts that did not come, as a budget was actually passed.

Lots of crazy money stuff going on right now.

I hope that EMC2 was not caught up in this silliness.

What will be interesting for us is what they do if they were. Think about it. If they have something but got hit by the budget bus, would they not go on their own? If they had naught, or needed significantly more work, they probably would not. They are after all a small company. I seem to recall FBO postings showing at peak around 14 or so employees.

I say if they have something, either the navy puts up a new contract, or EMC2 make a go of it alone. Either way we are more than likely going to know in the next couple of months I would think given what we have seen and understand of the contracting posts and updates.

[mvanwink5]

What does a US bureaucrat call proof? A Chinese aircraft carrier run by polywells. That is what I think. The government side of the funding is run by bureaucrats. Deep pocket VC's would never let EMC2 put back up that crappy website, too embarrassing at the golf club. So that is my reasoning:

Crappy EMC2 web site + no cardboard street corner out of work signs = still in the hands of government bureaucrats = university science project funding level. Unless someone can do a Bayesian analysis...

[paperburn1]

I agree , I am suggesting LM sees it as a money maker and have gone off and trying to do it as well. Remember they have collaborated in the past.