Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

KitemanSA · Post by **KitemanSA** » Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:57 pm

Most probable scenario: Hold on, more glitches, still working on it, no news yet...

choff · Post by **choff** » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:13 pm

There's probably a 3 month lag between the time they collect the data and the time its fully evaluated, so it could already be a success or failure and nobody knows yet.

mvanwink5 · Post by **mvanwink5** » Sun Jul 17, 2011 10:34 pm

Actually, what I would expect is the report that testing is going according to schedule with no unexpected hold up. A repeat of positive results would be redundant. IMO, of course.

GWW57 · Post by **GWW57** » Mon Jul 18, 2011 12:08 pm

Don't hold your breath.
The previous year's Q2 report was late, I recall.

I expect the report will be along the lines of:

"The behaviour of the system is being explored."

Giorgio · Post by **Giorgio** » Mon Jul 18, 2011 12:52 pm

GWW57 wrote:I expect the report will be along the lines of:

"The behaviour of the system is being explored."

New jobs created in the period: 1
Description of Jobs Created : One full time behavioural scientist (Psychologist)

GWW57 · Post by **GWW57** » Mon Jul 18, 2011 1:39 pm

Ivy Matt · Post by **Ivy Matt** » Mon Jul 18, 2011 9:12 pm

I expect they will throw us a bone. One with very little meat on it, but a bone nonetheless. And we will chew it over for a few days until there's nothing left (which won't take very long), and then we will go back to discussing Andrea Rossi's upcoming October Surprise demonstration or some such.

As to what that bone will be, I'm not going to speculate this time. Now that they're actually running experiments, I wouldn't presume to know what they've turned up.

krenshala · Post by **krenshala** » Tue Jul 19, 2011 3:52 am

Ivy Matt wrote:As to what that bone will be, I'm not going to speculate this time. Now that they're actually running experiments, I wouldn't presume to know what they've turned up.

... but we are ALL eager to find out.

mvanwink5 · Post by **mvanwink5** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 4:10 pm

I wonder if budget uncertainty will alter the amount of details in the report? I wonder if it might influence the organization of tests if there is risk of fund curtailments?

ladajo · Post by **ladajo** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:02 pm

I would point out the Navy's FEL and Shipboard laser programs as an example. There was no coinincidence that testing was conducted and published (nationally on the wire) just prior to the vote process.

Polywell may be money spent already, but it is not uncommon for programs to be killed and un-invoiced money recovered.

Either way, we will see something this week. It is a compelx process for them, and I would assume that they have had a share of issues as does any test program. Nothing ever works right the first time...

Edit: Spelling

mvanwink5 · Post by **mvanwink5** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 10:18 pm

Ladago,
It may be in the project's best interest to give some update on results favorability (if it is favorable), also in case testing becomes abbreviated, to go for end and middle points of state variable ranges, and to go for important points first, based on previous extensive WB-7.1 testing.

Looking forward to this weeks report actual update.

Maui · Post by **Maui** » Tue Jul 26, 2011 12:59 am

ladajo wrote:Polywell may be money spent already, but it is not uncommon for programs to be killed and un-invoiced money recovered.

Maybe, but I would guess the fact that the money came from the recovery act makes that hard here. The Navy couldn't recover the money because it was allocated specifically for this project. Congress probably could, but my guess is that most of the cuts being looked at are future or continuing spending. Probably would be a logistical nightmare to try to recall allocated but unspent recovery act funds. Just a guess.

mvanwink5 · Post by **mvanwink5** » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:39 pm

The source coming from a one time funding bill means future funding will have to be from the Navy itself. There will have to be compelling reasons for that to happen as easy money dries up. Another source would be private funding, but that requires serious backers as a demo is not cheap, and commercialization has a long time horizon.

I would not be surprised to see more said than, "We continue to collect data."

icarus · Post by **icarus** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:08 am

"We continue to collect data ...." if any noise at all is muttered.

Basically, it is black or dead, and to an outside observer there is no difference .... but that is how you guys like it, apparently.

ladajo · Post by **ladajo** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:40 pm

icarus wrote:"We continue to collect data ...." if any noise at all is muttered.

Basically, it is black or dead, and to an outside observer there is no difference .... but that is how you guys like it, apparently.

It is neither black nor dead...what do you base that on?

They are not yet out of Recovery Act funds, the likelyhood of early termination is small (but possible), and given viability from this phase, I am sure the navy, and possibly others (NASA, etc) are earmarking line items to press ahead with it.

In my mind , the bigger question remains, if it works (assume yes), then how and on what timeline is it deployed? I feel the answer will lay somewhat in projected impacts of deployment, as has been discussed many times. The two camps that seem to have emerged from the discussion are "it will take too long to really hurt things" and the "OMG, some folks are going to die due to the short term dramatic impacts of deployment".
I personally think I fall fall somewhere right of center between the two.