Anybody read that already?
http://www.strategypage.com/militaryforums/29-9189.aspx
Should we trust him? Would be the first news that WB-8 works as far as I know...
Colonel Korg is real or Borg?
Colonel Korg is real or Borg?
stone-bronze-iron-carbon-boron
Don't worry none about me. I'm just an old misery guts.
(I'll run a list out for you later.)
part of my problem is that I don't understand how to 'connect with the public'. Either something is right or wrong to me, but the 'public' seem to get along fine with 'kinda about right'. So, point conceded, you'll no doubt have made a point better that I could. Call it jealousy, if you like..
(I'll run a list out for you later.)
part of my problem is that I don't understand how to 'connect with the public'. Either something is right or wrong to me, but the 'public' seem to get along fine with 'kinda about right'. So, point conceded, you'll no doubt have made a point better that I could. Call it jealousy, if you like..
Re: Colonel Korg is real or Borg?
emmet,Emmet wrote:Anybody read that already?
http://www.strategypage.com/militaryforums/29-9189.aspx
Should we trust him? Would be the first news that WB-8 works as far as I know...
Korg has been around this a while, he just doesn't talk much. Hell I lurked for quite some time before running my yap and making trouble.
Yeah. You are right, really, and I shouldn't be scathing about things like that. Sorry. I shouldn't have come over so critical.
The bits I get the jitters about (always - not just in your text but whenever they are said!) are;
"The funding was small, only $14 million"; It got an appropriate amount of funding. I think the total by now is about $40 million. That should be enough to show proof of principle in any new project.
"they were able to solve all of the basic physics issues"; hmm... all we can possibly say [at best] is that 'the results were consistent with the theory'.
"almost radiation and radioactivity free nuclear reaction"; the term 'aneutronic' is often misunderstood. There is no reaction that you can stand next to. Going from DT to p11B would mean you only need a half of the shielding, but you still need it.
"you have to heat the hydrogen nuclei to millions of degrees in order for them to fuse"; IEC methods accelerate, rather than heat. (My pedantry is beginning to annoy me now.!)
"The Navy had put a gag order on Dr. Bussard and his team until the contract expired in 2006." possibly that is so, but the bluff was called and "Again the US Navy has placed a "gag order" on the team until the contract is up." is a stretch too far. EMC2 have refused to release data that the Navy was happy to release. You need to say that, at least.
"If they fully succeed in building a Fusion reactor, then the worlds dependence on fossil fuels will be over"... so long as we don't need to make any plastics or petroleum based chemicals, nor drive fuel powered cars, I suppose.
The bits I get the jitters about (always - not just in your text but whenever they are said!) are;
"The funding was small, only $14 million"; It got an appropriate amount of funding. I think the total by now is about $40 million. That should be enough to show proof of principle in any new project.
"they were able to solve all of the basic physics issues"; hmm... all we can possibly say [at best] is that 'the results were consistent with the theory'.
"almost radiation and radioactivity free nuclear reaction"; the term 'aneutronic' is often misunderstood. There is no reaction that you can stand next to. Going from DT to p11B would mean you only need a half of the shielding, but you still need it.
"you have to heat the hydrogen nuclei to millions of degrees in order for them to fuse"; IEC methods accelerate, rather than heat. (My pedantry is beginning to annoy me now.!)
"The Navy had put a gag order on Dr. Bussard and his team until the contract expired in 2006." possibly that is so, but the bluff was called and "Again the US Navy has placed a "gag order" on the team until the contract is up." is a stretch too far. EMC2 have refused to release data that the Navy was happy to release. You need to say that, at least.
"If they fully succeed in building a Fusion reactor, then the worlds dependence on fossil fuels will be over"... so long as we don't need to make any plastics or petroleum based chemicals, nor drive fuel powered cars, I suppose.
Chris,
regarding:
EMC2 have refused to release data that the Navy gave no government reason to block, other than supporting proprietary protection.
Or something of the sort. I think the navy (ONR) was not happy to release info, but found it was better to let EMC2 block it on proprietary grounds. NAVAIR Weapons had no reason to block release other than the position that EMC2 took, which may have been agreed with ONR when both faced the FOIA. NAVAIR had no official reason to stop release other than EMC2, ONR did not officially weigh in. But I would not say they (ONR) were happy about the FOIA, nor happy to release info.
I am not sure how to capture all that in a one liner.
Opening old wounds think am I...
regarding:
maybe it would be better to say:EMC2 have refused to release data that the Navy was happy to release
EMC2 have refused to release data that the Navy gave no government reason to block, other than supporting proprietary protection.
Or something of the sort. I think the navy (ONR) was not happy to release info, but found it was better to let EMC2 block it on proprietary grounds. NAVAIR Weapons had no reason to block release other than the position that EMC2 took, which may have been agreed with ONR when both faced the FOIA. NAVAIR had no official reason to stop release other than EMC2, ONR did not officially weigh in. But I would not say they (ONR) were happy about the FOIA, nor happy to release info.
I am not sure how to capture all that in a one liner.
Opening old wounds think am I...
I am not so sure at the point they will openly talk in April. I am suspecting that we will see paper move again (or not) vice a public declaratino of victory. Given sensitivities of funding lines these days, as well as who gets to control this when it is said and done (remember it will kill the navy nuclear program if it flys, especially PB&J).
The political ramifications are huge, both internally to the navy, and DOD, as well as externally. Think about what could go down in the world arena if there is a no warning unmanaged annoucement that oil and conventional nuclear are going the way of the Dodo. Good Grief. Even if you try and tell folks in the announcement that there will be a transition period, there will still be great disruption and 'flop-n-twitch' in the carbon fuels market, as well as nuclear and tokomak fallout. The stock markets are not gonna be happy, nor will government and economies that depend heavily on oil and such. The russians and nigeria have put all their cookies in one basket, and the middle east would be a on a short path to irrelavance. Gargh, I could keep going...
If they fail, then we may see more visibility, but for now, they are staying loooow key, and holding the cards tight in circle the wagons mode.
The political ramifications are huge, both internally to the navy, and DOD, as well as externally. Think about what could go down in the world arena if there is a no warning unmanaged annoucement that oil and conventional nuclear are going the way of the Dodo. Good Grief. Even if you try and tell folks in the announcement that there will be a transition period, there will still be great disruption and 'flop-n-twitch' in the carbon fuels market, as well as nuclear and tokomak fallout. The stock markets are not gonna be happy, nor will government and economies that depend heavily on oil and such. The russians and nigeria have put all their cookies in one basket, and the middle east would be a on a short path to irrelavance. Gargh, I could keep going...
If they fail, then we may see more visibility, but for now, they are staying loooow key, and holding the cards tight in circle the wagons mode.
-
just_an_observer
- Posts: 21
- Joined: Thu Apr 03, 2008 1:39 pm
Overnight disruption?
So what if they announced they were successful. From the time they developed the first nuclear reactor (Chicago Pile-1) at the end of 1942, it was 12-13 years before the first Nuclear sub put to sea. The nuclear propulsion business isn't going anywhere anytime soon even if Polywell is successful tomorrow. There's much to be done beyond just proving Polywell works before it's integrated into ship production. Sorry to throw a wet towel into the party, but the future is much more distant than we'd like to admit. I don't think they'll be immediately pulling ships into port to rip out fission reactors just to install Polywells unless there is a serious national security need, and cost benefit when current ships are bought and paid for (or being payed for) and not until at least directed energy weapons come into being in a serious way that would help justify it as well. My opinion is that they'd be phased in overtime (a long time) into new ship building, and ship building programs are long multi-year programs. I'm guessing the reality is that if Polywell works, it'll be quite a while before you see practical applications such as ships, or power production plants. So much to study, still so much to learn.... And that's only if it's viable.... I'd be surprised to see something before 2020. But still, I hope it works.
I agree that it will not be a step change. That is part of the issue.
But also remember who it will affect, and how.
This is not about rolling out ships, it is about a fundamental change in the structure of modern society.
As far as naval reactors go, yes they will have a job for a time, but I can essentially guarantee that you will not see one more fission ship built or refueled once polywell goes public with success. Polywell if functinoal, will not require the expense and construct that the nuclear navy is today. I will also guarantee that you will see very quick shifts in the build programs to get polywell incorporated. DDX is already being configured to go all electric, replacing or power sources is not going to be a big deal.
Most of the oil producing don't get along with the neighbor states require oil to stay at $90 per barrel to support spending. They are already not meeting target. Polywell being viable is not going to help the argument.
How slow do youthink China and other large players like India, South Korea, et all are going to be with their own polywell programs once viability is announced? How happy do you think Russia is going to be? They have no other viable income source these days. How about Iran, Saudi, Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria, Sudan etc? You have just given their economies a die or adapt sentance. At a minimum, they will try to maintain or drive up oil prices to sqeeze the lemon while they struggle to find another way. As oil tries to go up, so does pressure on consumers to accellerate the polywell option. Announcing Polywell success is going to scare a lot of folks as well as give a bunch of others hope. I think you will be VERY surprised how fast the technology takes hold if it works. Look at the death of horses and sail, then coal. Look at how fast electrical distribution developed. Look at computers and networks. Mobile phones. Never doubt the incentive of making a buck and saving a buck when it comes to engineering and technology deployment. Also never doubt that the folks that make tech plausible and deploy it, are not the same ones that think or really worry about what changes it will bring. Kenya skipped the entire landland phone system phenomena, and as a result has discovered some unique issues regarding an all mobile phone system, like for instance mobile phones minutes being used as bank accounts and currency. Hmm.
But also remember who it will affect, and how.
This is not about rolling out ships, it is about a fundamental change in the structure of modern society.
As far as naval reactors go, yes they will have a job for a time, but I can essentially guarantee that you will not see one more fission ship built or refueled once polywell goes public with success. Polywell if functinoal, will not require the expense and construct that the nuclear navy is today. I will also guarantee that you will see very quick shifts in the build programs to get polywell incorporated. DDX is already being configured to go all electric, replacing or power sources is not going to be a big deal.
Most of the oil producing don't get along with the neighbor states require oil to stay at $90 per barrel to support spending. They are already not meeting target. Polywell being viable is not going to help the argument.
How slow do youthink China and other large players like India, South Korea, et all are going to be with their own polywell programs once viability is announced? How happy do you think Russia is going to be? They have no other viable income source these days. How about Iran, Saudi, Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria, Sudan etc? You have just given their economies a die or adapt sentance. At a minimum, they will try to maintain or drive up oil prices to sqeeze the lemon while they struggle to find another way. As oil tries to go up, so does pressure on consumers to accellerate the polywell option. Announcing Polywell success is going to scare a lot of folks as well as give a bunch of others hope. I think you will be VERY surprised how fast the technology takes hold if it works. Look at the death of horses and sail, then coal. Look at how fast electrical distribution developed. Look at computers and networks. Mobile phones. Never doubt the incentive of making a buck and saving a buck when it comes to engineering and technology deployment. Also never doubt that the folks that make tech plausible and deploy it, are not the same ones that think or really worry about what changes it will bring. Kenya skipped the entire landland phone system phenomena, and as a result has discovered some unique issues regarding an all mobile phone system, like for instance mobile phones minutes being used as bank accounts and currency. Hmm.