Talk-Polywell.org

Power Down: Senate Zaps Navy’s Superlaser, Railgun

The Senate just drove a stake into the Navy’s high-tech heart. The directed energy and electromagnetic weapons intended to protect the surface ships of the future? Terminated.

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/06 ... r-railgun/

Shipboard power is the question mark surrounding both weapons.

Polywell's success maybe have just gotten a bit more important to ONR...

Interesting consideration.

TallDave wrote:

Shipboard power is the question mark surrounding both weapons.

Polywell's success maybe have just gotten a bit more important to ONR...

I wonder if we can read between the lines here....

If the Polywell were believed to be a unequivocal success for the Navy, clearly this would motivate the folk privy to the details to publicly release a bit of information so they could get their high energy projects back. After all, if you happen to be holding a royal flush, and the other side tries to call your bluff, it is time to show your cards and win. It is hard to believe the navy would allow their high energy projects to be shut down if they considered the Polywell a royal flush.

"Shutting down" could mean "going black".

Never underestimate complete stupidity when it comes to government.

This is not yet a done deal. I was surprised about FEL, as they made a real breakthrough, and even if it does not weaponize in the "Budget Near Term Reality", there are MANY other applications and possible pay offs for developing it.

Railgun is also motoring along nicely, although, they are still playing with barrel lifetimes. Last I heard, they had it figured for about 100 shots. However, when compared to a standard chemical round barrel, they are not that far off, figure 1000 to 1500 rounds. We are crazy precise about barrel wear as it affects ballistics quickly.

Enginerd,

I think it's fair to say that at this point no one knows for sure whether Polywell will work out. The loss scaling to reactor size needs to be proven, and given the history of confinement scaling across all fusion projects...

TallDave wrote:Enginerd,

I think it's fair to say that at this point no one knows for sure whether Polywell will work out. The loss scaling to reactor size needs to be proven, and given the history of confinement scaling across all fusion projects...

While that is certainly fair to say about you, and me, and everybody posting here who is not under NDA, I do not think we can safely say that "nobody knows". I think it is fair to say that by this point, at least some people do indeed know whether it will work or not.

Some people have access to the full WB-6 and WB-7 data as well as the final Review Commitee Evaluation of the WB-7 and WB-7.1 projects. Since we also now know that the "WB-8 device operates as designed and it is generating positive results", I think it is now safe to say that some rough preliminary WB-8 scaling results are now known to somebody... The fact is, either the machine is currently spitting out neutrons at somewhere within an order of magnitude of the predicted scaling results. Or it is not. Considering the fact that we know the "WB-8 device operates as designed", that suggests that there is little wiggle room to simply paper over "nuanced results".

Enginerd wrote: While that is certainly fair to say about you, and me, and everybody posting here who is not under NDA, I do not think we can safely say that "nobody knows". I think it is fair to say that by this point, at least some people do indeed know whether it will work or not.

You may both be partially correct. It may be possible that someone now knows it CANNOT work. But there is no way they can know that it CAN until they build one of that size.

KitemanSA wrote:You may both be partially correct. It may be possible that someone now knows it CANNOT work. But there is no way they can know that it CAN until they build one of that size.

Point willingly granted.

I think we would have heard something by now if Polywell was really going to work. The implications are enormous and there's just no way to keep people quiet about such a major development. The info would find its way into the open, as it always does. That it hasn't is instructive, I think.

vankirkc wrote:I think we would have heard something by now if Polywell was really going to work. The implications are enormous and there's just no way to keep people quiet about such a major development. The info would find its way into the open, as it always does. That it hasn't is instructive, I think.

Ah. Thirty minutes after the fact or thirty years?

If the govt ever really did actually keep a secret then sorta by definition, we'd never know about it. Saying that it 'always leaks' is an act of faith.

Yeah, why is it always the leaks that get all the publicity?