Skipjack wrote:Sorry but this is nonsense. If we start calling this net gain, then by all means we can start claiming that all sorts of other fusion methods have achieved net gain years ago. It is just a matter then of how you twist the math. That can not be it!
And this is not just a matter of improving inefficiencies in the facility. The conversion of electric energy into laser energy already costs a factor of 250 (500 to 1.9 megajoules). By the time the laser has finally reached the target, it is only 10 kilojoules or so. So all this math is absolute nonsense! Besides the whole concept will never lead to economic fusion reactors, not matter how much you improve on it. From what I understand each hohlraum is precision manufactured and gold plated. There does not seem to be much room for tritium breeding either. The whole thing is gigantic too, so the initial capital investment is huge. It just does not work for energy production and quite frankly, I could care less about the other uses. It is a technological dead end and therefore a waste of money.
I agree that as it stands it is not a viable method.
However, I think you are missing the trees that make the forest.
Problem: Crack a nut.
Hypothesis: If I smack it hard it will crack:
Experiment: Smack nut with sledgehammer, see if it cracks.
Process: Nut is unstable and rolls around, making it hard to hit with sledgehammer. But sledgehammer looks like plenty of force if it hits.
Adjustment: Make holder for nut to allow sledgehammer to hit.
Results: Sledgehammer cracks nut. Smushes nut in fact.
Conclusions: Nut can be cracked. Possible to refine size of hammer required, now that I know nut can be cracked.
New Hypothesis: A hammer half the size can crack the nut...
And so on.
In NIF's case, they have focused so far to making and hitting a fuel package to get it to fuse. Ultimate goal to date has been for package to produce more energy than it absorbs. They made sure that they had a big enough hammer to get sufficient energy to the package for absorption.
Now, it is my opinion that they can look at improving absorption and delivery. They have proven that for a given amount absorbed, they can get more out.
So, how can they scale up output of the fuel and scale down input of the required laser power? The previous question was, can we get the fuel to fuse releasing more power than what it takes to initiate? So now I would expect to see them working on getting the overall facility power requirement down. Improve absorption.
They are still a long way off with NIF. But this is a positive development for sure. To see it any other way is just plain silly.
Will they get beat by someone else? Maybe. But so far, no one else is publically admiting being closer.
The real bonus is that this means they will be able to make a major advancement in weapons simulation work. NIF's main purpose.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)